thanks praveen706 you must have enormous insights to this co since you are holding from 1985 ipo ? I am unable to get info on why they dropped the plan to allot pref shares to promoters earlier do you know ? I also am trying to see why javeris are holding stake here for many years or so can you share any info if you are aware.Pl share whats your expectation for the future from this co too it will help .
Posts tagged Value Pickr
PVR Ltd.- Lipstick of the Common Man? (09-11-2015)
PVR Revenues came at 474 cr ,below lower end of my forecast of 520 crores. The estimates were off mainly because of the following reasons:
PVR's share of Bajrangi bhaijaan collections came in at 52 cr vs 65 cr est. . this movie played more broadly across the country than i thought , collecting a bigger chunk of boxoffice collections outside of key urban areas.
PVR's share of Bahubali revenues were at 36 cr vs 50 cr estimated. This was always going to be tricky.its difficult to project for regional movies as all sort of wild estimates float around .
F&B revenues were lower than i factored in, as per management this is because of reduced Spend per head due to higher contribution from regional movies compared to Q1.this also led to lower margins.
i will do a similar exercise towards the end of Q3 and see how close i come to actual figures.
Disclosure:
modest position <3% of portfolio . i trade in and out of stock based on the upcoming movie lineup and valuations.
Vinati Organics (09-11-2015)
Agree, thats a concern. A 2,000 Cr MCap company that stopped doing conference calls. Though not sure about the reason. Had asked the same to company secretary sometime back but did not get straight answer to this.
Tanla Solutions – a niche player in m-commerce space and a turn around story? (09-11-2015)
Protect your capital
Duke Offshore – Hidden Gem? (09-11-2015)
Dear @mahesh112, It will be very good if you to put this in excel sheet and present so all users can understand what you are trying to say.
Disc: Not invested, Was on radar but not tracking now.
Tanla Solutions – a niche player in m-commerce space and a turn around story? (09-11-2015)
It has been a debt free company since its IPO. they have squandered all the funds that were raised. Learnt a hard lesson as I had invested in this company long time back on the debt free premise.
Not tracking the current business situation, however would advise a big caution.
Deccan Cement : Dull company.Dull business.Big wealth creation opportunity (09-11-2015)
Yes, it seems in Jun-15 qtr it got fuel expense benefits. Generally their fuel expenses (to sales) ratio is between 27-29% but in Jun-15 qtr it was in 21% which gave it approx 11-12 crs of fuel savings. This qtr is back again to normal levels, still profits are up. Need to demystify it
POKARNA LTD ( Stock opportunities ) (09-11-2015)
Last year AR had a line item for Other Long-Term Liabilities to the tune of Rs.21 crores which is cleared now in the last quarter.
Other Long-term Liabilites had 2 items:
Security Deposits : Rs.06.0 crores
Interest accrued but not due on borrowings: Rs.20.92 crores.
I guess this must be the interest that was due to the promoters for their loans to the company. Not sure how the market will read it :
a)Why they paid their due first when they have over Rs.100 crores outstanding long-term loans.They really worked hard to keep the company going during tough times,they do deserve it.
b) They still have Rs.200 crores long term loans ( Term loan Rs.110 crores and Unsecured loans from directors/inter corporate depositsRs.87.16 crores)
and Rs.59 crores short term loans(working capital loans).
From next quarter onwards,it will be interesting to see which one they will pay back first.
Now coming to the valuations,Pokarna currently trades at an Enterprise value to sales of 2.33 ( Market cap of Rs.673 crores + Debt of Rs.260 crores) / Sales of Rs.400 crores.
Despite having superior margins of OPM over 25% and net profit of over 10%,end of the day it is a building materials company.So,not sure if it will get better valuation than this.Going forward,growth will be incremental tracking the earnings data.
Other building material companies like Kajaria,cera are trading at 3 times the market cap to sales.
Disclosure: Invested.
Sandesh Ltd. – A Rare Cash-Rich Play on Print Media & OOH Segment (08-11-2015)
Sandesh posted decent results
Q2Fy16 Revenue - 90.4cr against 84 of Q2FY15
EBITDA - 29cr against 22cr
NP - 19.8cr against 13.6
Duke Offshore – Hidden Gem? (08-11-2015)
Hi Friends,
Planning to invest in this company, so doing my analysis step by step:
Duke Offshore
Market Cap.: 23.66 Cr. Current Price: 48.00 Book Value: 25.48 Stock P/E: 6.19 Dividend Yield: 1.14%
Face Value: 10.00 52 Week High/Low: 77.95 / ₹ 17.85 Debt: ₹ 0.00 Cr. Debt to equity: 0.00
EPS: 8.84 ROCE3yr avg: 40.45% Quick ratio: 2.22 Current ratio: 4.09 PB X PE: 11.64
Debtor days: 53.29 Profit growth 3Years: -11.68% PEG Ratio: 0.15 Promoter holding: 70.61%
Earnings yield: 19.11% Dividend Payout: 10.76% Mkt Cap To Debt Cap: 0.49 OPM: 46.50% OPM 5Year: 53.67%
Volume: 4,839.00 Sales growth 5Years: 30.31% Interest Coverage: ₹ 30.00 Market Cap to Sales: 2.51
Average return on equity 3Years: 21.74% Dividend Payout Ratio: 10.76% Change in promoter holding 3Years: -0.49%
Financial analysis
Sales Growth:
years 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar
Sales 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.03 6.33 2.47 0 8.48 5.66 6.56 9.28
CAGR = 24%
Result: The sales growth is good
Profitability:
year 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar
Sales(A) 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.03 6.33 2.47 0 8.48 5.66 6.56 9.28
Operating Profit(B) -0.14 -1.16 -1.4 -0.36 2.61 0.38 -1.15 5.73 3.1 3.56 4.85
OPM%(B?A) -700 -3,866.67 -1,750.00 -1,200.00 41.23 15.38 67.57 54.77 54.27 52.26
Other Income© 0.01 0.86 0 0.19 0.14 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.12 0.42 0
EBIDT* (D=B+C) -0.13 -0.3 -1.4 -0.17 2.75 0.47 -1.02 5.89 3.22 3.98 4.85
Depreciation (E) 0.02 0 0 0 0.02 0.03 0.41 1.05 1.2 1.08 0.74
Interest (F) 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.24 0.09 0.03 0.15
Profit before tax (G=D-E-F) -0.16 -0.3 -1.4 -0.17 2.72 0.44 0.84 4.61 1.95 2.88 3.97
Tax (H) 0 0 0 0 0.34 0.07 0.26 1.41 0.63 0.97 1.46
Net profit
(I=G-H) -0.16 -0.3 -1.4 -0.17 2.38 0.37 0.58 3.19 1.31 1.9 2.51
NPM% (I/A) -800% -1000% -1750% -567% 38% 15% #DIV/0! 38% 23% 29% 27%
After mar 12, the NPm is in good shape
Tax:
year 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar
Profit before tax A -0.16 -0.3 -1.4 -0.17 2.72 0.44 0.84 4.61 1.95 2.88 3.97
Tax B 0 0 0 0 0.34 0.07 0.26 1.41 0.63 0.97 1.46
Tax% B/A 0 0 0 0 12.5 16 31 30 32 34 37
Tax%>30 is good and here it is around 30 from last 4 years
Interest coverage:
year 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar
Operating Profit(A) -0.14 -1.16 -1.4 -0.36 2.61 0.38 -1.15 5.73 3.1 3.56 4.85
Interest B 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.24 0.09 0.03 0.15
Interest coverage (A/B) -14 NA NA NA NA NA -11.5 23.875 34.444 118.67 32.33
Last four years the interest coverage ratio is in good shape
ANALYSIS OF BALANCE SHEET (B/S):
Debt to Equity ratio (D/E, Leverage):
Year 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar
Equity Capital 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98
Reserves -3.37 -3.67 -5.07 -5.24 -2.86 -2.49 -1.91 0.99 2.16 4.06 6.31
T sh funds
(E=1+2) 1.61 1.31 -0.09 -0.26 2.12 2.49 3.07 5.97 7.14 9.04 11.29
Sec Loans (3) 0.41 0.38 0.38 0.27 0 0 0 0 0.36 0.83 0
Unsec Loans (4) 1.09 1.3 0.8 0.84 0.62 0.42 2.11 2.26 0 0 0
Tot deb (D=3+4) 1.5 1.68 1.18 1.11 0.62 0.42 2.11 2.26 0.36 0.83 0
D/E 0.93 1.19 -13 -4.2 0.3 0.17 0.68 0.37 0.05 0.09 0
D/E<1 last 7 years – Good
Current Ratio (CR):
Year 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar
Inventories (A) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.08 0 0.15
Receivables (B) 0.56 0.53 2.17
Cash (C ) 1.22 0.204 0.12
Current Assets (CA=A+B+C) 1.94 0.32 0.15 1.14 2.74 3.29 3.24 1.88 0.74 2.44
Current Liabilities(D) 3.56 1.13 0.69 0.79 0.9
Provisions (E ) 0 0.14 0.14 0 0.12
Total CL (CL=D+E) 0.28 0.3 0.1 0.74 0.89 3.56 1.13 0.69 0.79 0.9
CR (CA/CL) 6.9286 1.0667 1.5 1.5405 3.07865 0.92416 2.86726 2.72464 0.93671 2.71111
CA>1.25 …..most of the time…this is good
ANALYSIS OF CASH FLOW STATEMENT (CF):
Year 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar
Cash from Operating Activity -0.1 -0.07 -0.09 -0.1 2.71 0.04 1.75 3.27 2.24 3 5.23
Cash from Investing Activity 0 0 0 0 -2.1 1.35 -4 -2.29 -0.9 -4.52 -4.33
Cash from Financing Activity 0 0 0 0 -0.49 -0.2 1.75 -0.03 -1.98 0.49 -0.98
Net Cash Flow -0.1 -0.07 -0.09 -0.1 0.12 1.19 -0.5 0.95 -0.64 -1.03 -0.08
Cash at the end of year 0.2 0.1 0.22 1.41 0.92 1.87 1.23 0.2 0.12
CFO- Increasing YOY
Cash from investing Activity is –ve….confused the meaning
Cash from Financial Activity is –ve….confused the meaning
Cumulative PAT vs. cumulative CFO:
Year 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar Total
PAT -0.16 -0.3 -1.4 -0.17 2.38 0.37 0.58 3.19 1.31 1.9 2.51 10.21
CFO -0.1 -0.07 -0.09 -0.1 2.71 0.04 1.75 3.27 2.24 3 5.23 17.88
Here CPAT
Valuation Analysis
Ratio Value ideal Comment
p/E ratio 6.19 <10 Good
PEG ratio 0.15 undervalued stock
PB X PE 11.64 <122 Graham said it should be <122
p/s 2.51 <1.5 if p/s>3: sell the stock
Dividend Yield 1.14% >5% Not so important
EV/EBITDA 4.79 Low meaning undervalued
Ideally this looks a undervalues stock
Business & Industry Analysis
Compare Sales growth rate with peers
Year 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar Total
Duke Off 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.03 6.33 2.47 0 8.48 5.66 6.56 9.28 84.78%
Dolphin
Offshore Enterprises
(India) Ltd 139 183 212 234 352 553 0 200 415.6 357.7 196.5 3.84%
Alphageo (India) Ltd 23.1 23.9 54.3 81.6 63.9 78.33 20.86 25.23 8.66 44.41 63.97 1.78%
Gemmia Oiltech (India) Ltd 0 0 0.45 1.72 3.15 5.52 9.07 8.3 0.18 0 NA
Duke offshore sales growth is better than its peers -- very Good sign
Increase In Production Capacity And Sales Volume:
Year 5-Mar 15-Mar CAGR
Production capacity (tonnes per annum)
Quantity sold (tonnes) (A)
Sales price per tonne (INR) (B)
Total sales (INR Cr./10 Million) (A*B)
Not able to find the data
Still analysis is in progress.