On ValuePickr I believe we discuss business and fundamentals and not price … at least not only price … Going thru thread will give you enough information for you to decide.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
ALLSEC Technology – BPO turnaround story (17-12-2015)
Allsec maintains payroll for Accenture India(I work for the company). Payslips, promotion letters and bonus communications were processed on time. So,the operations had minimal impact and what Mr. Mohan says about Chennai rains impact seems to be true.
Accenture has a healthy relationship with Allsec and I have witnessed them working together for 7th year(minimum).
Not invested in Allsec.
Nitin Spinner – textile yarn story (17-12-2015)
http://www.indianivesh.in/Downloads/635858597054986250_Nitin_Spinners_Ltd._Initiating_Coverage_Dec_2015.pdf
Target – 112
Initiating coverage by Indian Nivesh. I used to be a big Daljeet Kohli fan in the past but went away from his path, after a few things did not play out but off late, I am back to liking him and his team !! if someone can digest this D/E, the rest looks stellar, as ever in Nitin..off late, Mr.Market seems to like it too
PS – Invested but no transactions in the last few weeks..I am at breakeven @CMP
Hindistan Media Ventures Limted (HMVL): A mispriced bet in newspaper business (17-12-2015)
Thank you for all the input.
Dhwanil, your commentary has been invaluable. It has provided great insights into the business and the industry.
These are my thoughts….
In this industry once a newspaper has reached a significant scale, it begins to enjoy immense pricing power.
The newspaper creates a network effect that commands a premium from advertisers. Customer stickiness also allows the newspaper to increase cover prices.
Thus establishing a network effect in a large market is very powerful.However HML’s entry in UP, and DB’s entry in Bihar/Jharkhand point to the fact that an incumbent’s network effect can be encroached upon. Thus a players ability sustain a created network effect is extremely important.
Amar Ujala failed in this respect allowing HML to gain market share. While HML has also bled some market share with the entry of DB, it has been more resilient when compared to Amar Ujala. Yet readership has fallen. From 2012-2014, Bihar readership has fallen from 48 lakh to 43.8 lakh, and Jharkhand readership has fallen from 17 lakh to 13.8 lakh.
DB’s launch strategy (known as the Orbit-Shifting Innovation) has won a business process innovation award, and is case study at top B-schools. DB has basically been very successful in entering new markets in the past. You can read about it here: http://www.dainikbhaskargroup.com/pdf/Media-Center-Case-Studies/Making-Breakthrough-Innovation.pdf
What I find extremely puzzling is that DB has not yet made an endeavor to enter UP/UT. In recent times DB has entered Bihar and Jharkhand but the UP/UT market is bigger than the Bihar, Jharkand, and Delhi markets combined.
I would love to hear everyone’s thoughts on
1) Why has DB not entered yet, am I missing something?
2) What will happen to HML’s market share and growth prospects if DB decides to enter now
A possible reason could be that perhaps DB was unsuccessful in penetrating the Bihar and Jharkhand market, and thus DB management is not confident about going head to head with HML again. If this is the reason, then I think it very strongly reinforces the strength of HML’s moat. This is just a possible reason. I have only recently started to study this industry, I’m far from an expert. Hence feedback is welcome, and much needed.
If its true, the implications are very favorable. Due to correlation between readership and pricing power, as HML continues to increase its readership in UP/UT, FCF will grow incrementally. FCF has quadrupled in the last 5 years (29% CAGR), and that trend may continue.
I look forward to some feedback. Thanks guys.
Disc: Not invested but looking to make a position
MCX and Financial Technologies (17-12-2015)
Hi Abhishek,
It is very difficult to see through the crystal ball and predict impact of new entrants like BSE & NSE on MCX’s market share. Though, my own investment thesis is based on the central premises
- The current commodity trade on exchanges is set to grow exponentially due to introduction of options, new products and new participants. Thus, my hypothesis is that the pie will grow much bigger than what it is today (multi fold).
- World over, it has been difficult to take away market share by new entrants from incumbents, especially in commodities where they enjoy monopoly. Thus, even if BSE/NSE enter the commodity exchange space, MCX may shade some market share, but is likely to remain leader in energy/metals/precious metals. (this has been proven in India. NCDEX has retained it’s market share in agri commodities inspite of MCX launching number of agri commodities contract and similarly MCX has not given away any market share in it’s forte to NCDEX inspite of NDEX launching contracts in gold/silver/energy)
On faster platform speed- I do hear that it at times is an attraction for speculator. However, I wonder if that is a preference of customers (traders), what will stop MCX from emulating/adopting the strategy and moving to a much faster platform? At the end of the day, there is nothing so proprietary about faster platforms and are but are supplied/built by third parties/providers.
Another perspective we should keep in mind: when SEBI will allow BSE/NSE to enter in commodity space, it will also allow commodity exchanges to enter equity/equity derivative space. It will be a two way street. Thus, the target market for MCX will also expand and it may too decide to enter in that space.
Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd IPO – Should we invest or let it pass? (17-12-2015)
Hospital business in India is like liquor business. High margins and high capacity utilization at a unit level, but low RoE at a consolidated level. The bucket leaks for the benefit of the owners. Apollo is a great example.
Strides_Arcolab (17-12-2015)
Religare reiterated the same defense of Strides vs Mylan and puts a target of 1570/
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/recommendations/buy-strides-arcolab-targetrs-1570religare_4619381.html
Suven Life Sciences – Embedded triggers (17-12-2015)
There is no free lunch. Suven’s best bet is to hope that some biggie will help them monetize one of their discoveries and will release the much needed cash and future royalty clause may be their savior, if the jackpot is hit
IL& FS Transportation Network – Biggest BOT player in india in terms of Lane KM (17-12-2015)
How much profit can it show in fy 17-18 according to you?
ALLSEC Technology – BPO turnaround story (17-12-2015)
Had a very generic talk with the Company Secretary Mr. Mohan. It wasn’t difficult to reach him and he sounded pretty positive about the business prospect. Below are the details.
Q. Scale of disruption in the normal business functioning due to Chennai rains
A. No major disruption. Out of three divisions two were working completely fine. In one division there was very minor disruption. Just that the employees were not able to report during the daytime which had very minor effect on the domestic payroll business. International business was doing ok as people in night shift were able to report. Due to insignificant disruption no notice was given to BSE/NSE.
Q. How is the business doing? Reasons for the turnaround?
A. The business has improved at both domestic and International fronts. The 2 international subsidiaries have also turned around and reporting profits due to addition of clients.
Q. Sustenance or improvement of earnings going forward?
A. Company has added clients at both foreign and domestic front. The business is doing good. In quarter 2 there was other income of 5Cr. due to tax refund which of-course won’t be same for Q3.
Regards
Krishna