Excellent thought process Hitesh bhai, so much to learn. IMO the other headwind Ajanta is facing is on currency, in Q 2 con call they did mention it. Their exports are 95 % to third world countries whose currencies are falling in last 2 yrs, mainly due to dollar strength and Fed rate hike risk. With fed rate hike out of the way things may stabilise . Business is still going well with 20 % steady growth. I also exited after Q 2 results, at around 1570 levels. These kind of switches does help me as well. I keep a highly conc PF of 5/6 stocks only all having very high conviction and undervalued/fair valued . Although I keep a list of 10/15 stocks having very conviction with different valuations. The thumb rule I follow is to remain fully invested, so there is no complete missing out. Earlier these sweetches I was doing after min holding 1 yr to keep tax advantage. But in 2015 kind of range bound market getting 30 % again 2/3 times with conc allocation does wonders to PF. There were misses too. I failed to reduce holding when kitex was 1000 +, got emotional with stock, still hold and increased allocation at lower levels to bet on strong Q3 Q4. Towards the end of year I did find Cupid which saved the year for me. With nifty down 15 % this year PF return is close to 55 %, which is low from VP std but I will take it in this kind of mkt. My other conc bets are can fin, Cupid, kitex and torrent My other exits were Avanti alembic capital first repco home Kaveri but still on radar. I also feel we should start mentor mentee relationship at VP on Voluntary basis. Best Regards
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Satin Creditcare Network Ltd – Reaching out! (14-12-2015)
Natural behavior. Don’t expect any stock to go up in a straight line.
Vinati Organics (14-12-2015)
hi guys,
new to this thread. Have couple of queries to understand this business:
1) How easy or difficult is it for customers to change a supplier (switching costs)?
2) Currently, growth of topline is in question mark big time (i believe). On one hand IBB is a mature product and shall face declining profitability. While, ATBS is facing headwinds because of crude price fall. Any idea if company has got any in-house capability to produce new hit products (with sales potential enough to make a difference to topline)?
3) They claim to be lowest cost producers, is there anything apart from backward integration contributing to this?
Thanks
Rajat
Waterbase – Can it be Next Avanti Feeds? (14-12-2015)
Hi,
Had a talk with IR team. The person gave a brief idea about the business. He told that the company will go for its first hatchery this year at a cost of 12 crores. Each hatchery gives 20 crores in revenue. Revenues from hatcheries will flow in FY 17 and onwards. EBITDA margins here are 20%.
Regarding the feed business – he told that there is huge demand – supply gap – demand being very less compared to overall supply. Supply is – 14lacs, demand is mere – 7-8lacs.
This will create pressure on margins. So what we see as 10-12% EBITDA margins will reduce in years to come.
Company currently processes 4000MT and doesnt want to expand it as of now. But company has entered into exports and wants to export all its 4000MT of processing one day (next 5 years). Sad part is exports provide a mere 2-3% EBITDA margins.
Industry is running in a rough phase. With much less bargaining power in the business and over supply, the coming business is going to be really tough.
Adding to the worries, those who are expecting a good quarter result, flood in Nellore has destroyed the farming practise, leading to big impact on revenues.
Disc: Invested at 100 level. It is scary, if the IR team is negative about the business. Thinking to switch my investment.
Lincoln Pharma … the next mid-cap pharma in the making …? (14-12-2015)
How would you value lincoln pharma? Is 15 a fair pe for the company given that it should show decent topline growth. One issue is the cash conversion cycle of almost 170 days but that should get corrected hopefully.
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (14-12-2015)
http://www.femalecondoms4all.org/female-condoms/stories-of-change/#id3
female condoms getting widely accepted with each passing day…
MCX and Financial Technologies (14-12-2015)
Dear All,
Anyone knows what is happening on this counter? The price has moved from 1200’s to 700’s in a matter of few months. The market share seems to remain constant. While the threat of BSE entry is there, I assume it will be very difficult for BSE to dent MCX’s volumes. Further, there has been a continuous improvement in the the volumes since the last 3-4 quarters.
Any guesses as to what is going on. Dhwanil, any views?
Abhishek
Satin Creditcare Network Ltd – Reaching out! (14-12-2015)
Any idea why the stock has fallen from the peak of 488.
Is there anything that I’m missing. Plzz let me know.
Thanks.
Discl : Not Invested.
Bharat rasayan ltd (14-12-2015)
Bharat Rasayan Ltd (Quarterly results):
The company’s growth has somewhat stagnated in H1 FY2016 and Q1 performance was lacklustre. EPS for the first half of FY2016 is Rs 53, but the latter half EPS tends to be lower (was Rs 24 in FY2015). Assuming a scenario of no growth, the company should post an yearly EPS of Rs 77 in FY2016.
ALLSEC Technology – BPO turnaround story (14-12-2015)
All, please note that was able to connect with their Delhi office and understand that business is going concern..