I agree with most of what’s being pointed out. Standalone vs Consolidated, Change in constituents, Growth rate etc.
What the TV anchor claims does not reflect reality. Beyond that, trying to use these numbers as anchor for investment decisions is not the right thing to do for a value investor.
Focus on finding the intrinsic value of the individual stock. That’s the holy grail.
Dear @akbarkhan
Your argument as I understand from the above is that the current constituents are better than historical constituents because historical non-performers go and only the performers stay. So we need to take the current constituents’ historical performance and infer growth in the future from that.
But the historical performance of current constituents has the benefit of hindsight. Suppose I create a portfolio today of stocks that has given a high earnings growth say in the past 5 years by choosing them obviously after I know their results, I cannot say that their their future earnings growth will be high. If you think about it, say the Nifty 5 years ago would also have thought the same as you are thinking now; ‘that I have removed laggards and only the performers stay’. But laggards continue to be there and Nifty continues to be revised; 2 – 4 changes every year. Even today’s Nifty will have laggards, no one knows which ones. For instance no one long back would have thought that RIL will be a laggard, and today I am sure you would laugh if I told you that Jet Airways was a part of Nifty. Similarly companies have been removed and brought back into the Nifty (Zee Enterprises, for instance) after a while!
So the best way to measure anchor earnings growth is to take Nifty portfolio as it was at that time in history and see how it did until the Nifty was changed; and again do the same.
Unusual price movements in two days. Yesterday stock went up to 697 and today down to below 600. 
There’s Mr Market for us.
But once I think this change of hands happens, things should be back to normal and focus would be back on the business.
Thank for the update guys.
I think information about volume is important as it is reflective of demand for ATBS. Vinati has a strong low cost competitive advantage in the ATBS business. ~56% of the operating profit comes from the ATBS business and it has been the main growth driver in recent years.
If demand for ATBS does not get significantly impacted by the fall crude prices, and the ATBS market continues growing at 10-15%, then it would give me comfort as an investor as I know that Vinati will be able to reinvest (by adding capacity) in its moat, sustain a very high ROC, and grow earnings accordingly.
Vinati is also diversifying into other products that it expects will contribute significantly to its topline, but I don’t know if Vinati has or will be establish a moat in these products.
A company that has a wide moat business, is able to reinvest in that wide moat business due to strong demand prospects, and is trading at 16x earnings, sounds like a bargain.
However, a company that has a wide moat business that it cannot reinvest into, and must deploy capital elsewhere, is a more uncertain investment. In such a case a 16x multiple may not be a bargain price.
Yes @kkarunakar bajaar.me only report and compile data as per public>1% as disclosed by the companies…
for clarity i have posted top10 holders as per AR15 which shows there were 5 funds of SBI MF which r invested in Vinati including 9.9l shares of SBI Magnum Global Fund..cumulatively SBI MF holds more than 21l shares…which is getting reflected in fund holding data of Nov’15 which i extracted from Capital Line (hope it is not a violation of VP rules)..hope it helps
@vivek_mashrani thanks
Hi,
Please help to modify the below query, as the below query is not giving any stock:
Sales growth >15%
and NPM last year >8%
and Tax last year > 25%
and Interest Coverage >3
and Debt to equity <0.5
and Current ratio > 1.25
and PEG Ratio < 1
and Price to Sales < 1.5
and Dividend yield > 0%
and Promoter holding > 51%
and Earnings yield > 10%
and Price to Earning <10
Thanks
Mahesh
As far as the topline is concerned the company has pass-through clause in the contracts so that they are able to pass on forex and raw material price risk to the consumer, hence as far as the bottom-line growth is fine we should not get worried about top-line (since this is bound to decrease due to lower crude prices).
As far as ATBS application in shale gas and Enhanced oil recovery (EoR) goes, it contributes c.20% of ATBS sales and rest of the 80% comes from various other industries such as water treatment, personal care etc. And obviously as far as they keep on drilling oil (which they are) the demand should not drop so much.
Both these points come from interview of Vinati on ET 2 years back:
@Chintan, As per Sep 30 shareholding pattern Only SBI Global fund has more than 1% . Most of the mentioned institution have existed the stock.
See here from BSE site.
You can check Bajaar.me also. Put Vinati name, you will find which institution has existed in which quarter. Hope this helps.
My doubt come due to number of share declared 9L and SBI holding just more than 9L share. SBI is still in profit.
Block deals of 71 lac shares on BSE at 610.
While calculating ROCE on screener, we exclude other income in numerator and correspondingly exclude cash and investments in denominator. We try to calculate it as done here: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/28494399/Blog%20Links/A_Killer_Puzzle.pdf
Followed it up here: https://twitter.com/faltoo/status/675187160123883520
Hope that helps.