hi hitesh,
the market reaction took me by surprise. (i know pe based valuation is not correct considering the one off huge earning. but still its 15 pe when almost all other pharma companies are > 30)
any views?
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Torrent Pharma Ltd (30-10-2015)
Torrent Pharma Ltd (30-10-2015)
thanks amit agrawal.
U seem to have covered most of the concall.
Some additions
US base business (ex abilify) remains robust)
Nexium.. After approval co is in final stages of approvals with various players. Target slightly lower market share in the lower single digit.
Shelcal expect to take price rise in Nov. (it is 15% cheaper than competitors in India). grew 45%. Chymoral grew 78%. These brands are showing good traction even more than their glory years earlier when they were flagship brands of elder.
They dont share margins of individual products.
About balance sheet, they said ST loans have been paid. LT debt in immediate future, no plans to retire it. Internal targets set for keeping aside some fund for WC management. Implied that they want to be ready with war chest should an opportunity arise for M&A.
Abilify likely to remain attractive in US for torrent for next atleast 12 months. Since launch is at risk, too many players are unlikely to come up.
Detrol current competition is with mylan and teva. 3 more players may come up. But overall opportunity likely to remain attractive.
Chhatral last inspected in June 2014.
Change in domestic business aimed at improving long term health of co. in domestic biz. Co wants to be the highest margin co in domestic biz. (someone asked about comparision with Sun and they told that they want to reach and better that)
On MAT basis, co is No 1 growth co in domestic market.
In Brazil, every April govt fixes ceiling prices for products. Co is likely to raise prices where possible .
On R&D side, co plans to increase resources and add 1000 people. aim to take r&d expense to high single digit of turnover. (? a la alembic?)
Aim of increased spend is to increase filings in US. In current qtr there were no filings. But aim is to file 15-20 ANDA beginning next year. And increase complexity of products.
In India aim is to build a strong pipeline and copy whatever is possible in Brazil.
Zyg acquisition is meant to get a toe hold in derma segment. Co plans to shift its own derma division and brands to Zyg. Its face wash (I think they were alluding to ahaglow face wash) is no 1 face wash brand in India. derma sales was 70 crores. Zyg is not into big opportunities. But is mainly to open its account in dermatology and not score a straight century.
Outlook for next 2 years. pending filings at 20 and 5-6 products have high chances of providing attractive opportunities.
In abilify co is in market share preservation mode. It is taking care of bigger customers and making them stick. Smaller customers are being addressed by newer players who have entered late. Abilify used to be a 30 dollar tablet for innovator.
Dahej nearing completion. EIR expected anytime soon and shipments to begin soon to USA and other markets before Christmas.
Dahej facility helps co in increasing supply and market share in existing products. Also it helps co to bid for bigger quantities in the German tender business. Its German arm Heumann has strong expertise in the german market. Germany remains an attractive market despite being tender based. Germany growth was 16% in constant currency terms.
UK and Romania have shown some slowdown. But in Romania due to changes in govt policy, generic players are likely to benefit.
Zyg sales 10 crores and profit more than 50 lacs. 2 NDDS preparations in dermatology in foam preparation to be launched soon.
Co is optimistic about Crestor whereas in Viagra they didnt seem confident. But they already have Sildenafil launched in US markets for off label Uses mainly in pulmonary hypertension where it si seeing good traction.
Complex NDDS evaluated for ROW and Brazil. At a later date even launches in US and Europe may be considered.
Overall the management commentary seemed fairly confident and positive.
My mistakes with the stock market (30-10-2015)
a lot of mistakes with lessons but still keep making some of the same mistakes, i think it is built into human nature
not selling even at 10x profits
buying dabba stocks on tips
averaging loss making trades leading to complete loss of capital (read likes of KS Oils)
getting married to a stock
staying put despite corporate governance issues
buying the momentum but not taking the exit
sure there'll be many more but we gotta learn our lesson and move ahead
POKARNA LTD ( Stock opportunities ) (30-10-2015)
I think the article(interview) above has some factual errors regarding FY15 topline. The revenue split for FY15 as per AR is (Granite - 183Cr, Quartz - 135.73Cr, Apparel - 7Cr). From the above interview I understand that FY16 split would be(Granite - 200Cr, Quartz - 200Cr, Apparel - 7Cr). So growth YoY would be (Granite - 9.74%, Quartz - 47.4%, Apparel - 0%). I am assuming Apparel would remain the same as last year. I hope I am reading the data correctly or am I missing something?
POKARNA LTD ( Stock opportunities ) (30-10-2015)
I think the article(interview) above has some factual errors regarding FY15 topline. The revenue split for FY15 as per AR is (Granite - 183Cr, Quartz - 135.73Cr, Apparel - 7Cr). From the above interview I understand that FY16 split would be(Granite - 200Cr, Quartz - 200Cr, Apparel - 7Cr). So growth YoY would be (Granite - 9.74%, Quartz - 47.4%, Apparel - 0%). I am assuming Apparel would remain the same as last year. I hope I am reading the data correctly or am I missing something?
What is view on urja global (30-10-2015)
Hi Basha,
With all due respect, why don't you study the stock and put up a stock story and then ask others to chip in, rather then asking others about the fundamentals.
Other members are willing to help and do the work if you take the initiative (You may refer the other good stock story intiation threads on the forum for this) first on an idea that you might be interested in.
Regards.
Any PSU bank worth investment? (30-10-2015)
PSU banks will not perform like their private sector counterparts for many evident reasons. But that doesn't make them a complete no for investment. SBI is the proxy for Indian economy (sure you've heard this many a times).
The Govt of India controls the managements of the PSBs in almost all the aspects. From the calls made by Secretary, DFS to LIC & treasury heads to subscribe to failed FPOs and to ensure support for the various social initiatives of Modi Sarkar. These social programs involve additional costs and no private sector bank does what these PSBs do. Just take a look at the rural/urban branch ratio of private sector banks and you'll see what I'm referring to.
The private sector banks earn a considerable amount of fee from the (mis)selling of products (insurance/derivatives). If you follow some banking news, there have been news of how even some corrupt PSB employees have debited customer accounts for selling insurance without their consent and earned lakhs as incentive.
We could talk a lot about how they go about doing their day to day business. Coming to investment worth of the PSU banks, there will be more competition from the Payment Banks & the new licensees. If you have a realistic expectation of returns with a holding capacity, you can find value in select PSBs. Else you can try find the next multi-bagger and deploy your capital there.
What is view on urja global (30-10-2015)
Urja global is a solar player.what is this stock fundamentals.
INDIGO ready for takeoff :airplane: (30-10-2015)
Despite all the noise around the dividend payout, look at the QIB investors who have queued up. Many of them with stakes in similar international LCCs. Only the Retail & Employee portion went unsubscribed. The dividend payout by emptying the coffers isn't reflective of good governance but the owners are confident of the ability of the management and the business to generate free cash flows QoQ & YoY. In an environment like India, where an airline managed to be profitable for 7 years, with hopes that the business environment will only get better and ATF prices trending lower and the imminent addition of Airbus A320neo planes to fleet will only lead to more efficient operations. The retail lot have been put out by the "avoid" ratings by brokers with the short view of no expected listing gains because the issue is richly priced.
I had shares from Jet Airways' IPO and sold it after a while. Have applied yet again, lets see.
About the Investor Toolkits category (30-10-2015)
I wanted to upload an excel which pulls data from and calculate the Self Sustainable Growth Rate, RoCE, RoA for 5 years for the stock. It also does many other calculations and also does an TTM level. But I cannot update the excel here.
Let me know how can I do it?
Thanks
GreyCells
Amol Chavan