Disc: I remain invested. Avanti forms a significant portion of my portfolio

Below are known data-points, and should serve as caution points for Newbies. Do not be tempted to jump in (say, at lower levels) – unless you have made a decent attempt to understand the ODDs.

My Key Takeaways from the Avanti BizQuest Concall
1. There is tangible damage to Nellore Crop. Investors in Avanti should be prepared to see impact of same in Q3 Results.
2. Short term pain may extend for a couple of months more – we will need to assess afresh
3. Main stakeholders remain optimistic and very hopeful of Summer Crop remaining unaffected, and therefore medium term prospects of industry for 2016 and 2017 look good to them
4. Crop area going up, States like Orissa and Gujarat showing rapid uptake of Vannamei, some Corporate Firms shifting to Vannamei from Black Tiger, AP Govt. Policy incentives to Aquaculture – are reasons cited for the confidence
5. Avanti Management Quality/Execution track record is seen as Exemplary. Not only farmers but the whole trade readily testifies to that including Competition.

Top-of-Mind Focus area for further investigation (those invested/tracking)
1. Whereas industry/stakeholders seem very confident of at least 2 good years ahead in 2016 & 2017, it is certainly not clear why India will continue to prosper and grow at a brisk rate (as envisaged by Industry)
2. Given that most of the competing supplier nations – Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia, Equador, India and Thailand (almost there) are almost at similar production levels and there is now a demand-supply equilibrium of sorts, what makes us confident that India will continue to grow faster by snatching away more marketshare (from others, which countries?)
3. Is it possible to work out a cost-competitiveness model among the various competing countries e.g. Om was pointing out that Thailand wages are 20% higher today despite the devaluation (?)

Others participating in the Concall, may please add your key focus areas/takeways – perspectives that I may have missed.

Let’s take the data collection/investigation work forward

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There was news sometimes back that Cupid female condoms are being tested in Zimbabwe. http://www.keycorrespondents.org/2015/04/09/zimbabwe%E2%80%99s-female-condom-success-story-takes-new-form/
We are not aware of the results. I have not been able to find any news item about its approval. Nevertheless, as USFDA/WHO has already approved the product, I dont think any major problem is getting the product approved at other places too.
Now the real challenge remains fresh orders and popularization of the product. It Amazon, it is seen that Cupid condom is priced higher than Velvet (300 to 260) and at the same time customers are more happy with cupid condoms. The share price has gone high, and the stock has started looking expensive…. some new development is required to sustain high stock prices.

Hi @onliabhishek company acquired ThreeSixtyLogica in Dec 2014. ThreeSixtyLogica earned revenue of INR 275.58mn during financial year 2014-15 compared to INR 147.02mn during financial year 2013-14, a growth of 87.44%. The PBT of ThreeSixtyLogica grew by 161% on consolidated basis and increased to INR 75.60mn during financial year 2014-15 compared to INR 28.92mn during financial year 2013-14. Of the above the proportionate amounts pertaining to the quarter ending March 2015 have been used for consolidation purposes.

Takeaway –
1. ThreeSixtyLogica at no growth rate will safely contribute 7.5 crs. to PBT. So we are looking at ~INR 22crs FY2016E PAT
2. SQS India BFSI – another listed IT company in testing is trading at ~38x P/E. Saksoft is very cheap in that regard

P.S. not yet invested. Evaluating between Allsec Technology, Kellton and Saksoft
Allsec and Saksoft have similar market cap. But growth of Allsec numbers will be stronger in case closure of Mortgage business.