Deepak Fertilisers chart pattern shows a typical cup and handle pattern.

For those un initiated some salient points about the pattern.

The shape of the pattern is that of a rounding U shaped cup and a shallow smaller handle which is having a slightly downward drift.

The pattern can take six to sixty five weeks to form. (many a times this timelines are interpreted arbitrarily and what is important is the formation).

The points joining the tops of the cup is the neckline and that usually has traditionally been offering resistance from where stock prices react .

The handle portion is a smaller formation of shorter duration than the cup and has a downward drift. The hallmark of the handle is the very low volumes during its time frame. Immediately prior to handle formation and specifically after breakout, the volumes show a sharp jump.

Measuring implication is the height of cup added to the breakout point and this usually provides minimum price targets. Many a times these targets can be exceeded.

attached deepak fertiliser chart with comments in the charts. (this is not a recommendation but an example of a well known pattern shown in charts)

disc: bought today as a techno funda bet.

deepak fertiliser daily line chart.png1336×638 20.3 KB

For formulation makers, APIs represent lower margin business many a times. (Occasionally there might be higher margin niche APIs).

Plus for a company focussing on formulations the effort to put up and run an api plant may not be worth the effort.

And putting up an API plant where the quantity of the stuff required for captive consumption is quite low may not make economic sense.

e.g for abilify, torrent used to source its API from someone else . (I think hetero).

whereas alembic is nearly vertically integrated for abilify.

So at the end of the day it depends on how strategically important it is for the company to manufacture its required APIs.

Coming to Neuland I had a look at the company and it does hold promise but how it delivers needs to be seen. Management has indicated some possibilities which can turn out to be interesting. But personally I would still prefer to keep it in my watchlist only.

Couple of observations

The company released an ad in Pune for their branded socks, Lord Walker. It said the socks are available in Mochi and other retail stores, as well as leading e-comm sites.

I checked online and indeed their product was available on the following sites

Amazon

Snapdeal
http://www.snapdeal.com/search?keyword=lord+walker+socks&santizedKeyword=&catId=&categoryId=&suggested=false&vertical=&noOfResults=20&clickSrc=go_header&lastKeyword=&prodCatId=&changeBackToAll=false&foundInAll=false&categoryIdSearched=&cityPageUrl=&url=&utmContent=&dealDetail=

Flipkart
http://www.flipkart.com/mens-clothing/accessories-combo-sets/socks/pr?q=lord+walker+sock&as=on&as-show=on&otracker=start&sid=2oq%2Cs9b%2C8jf%2Cma3&as-pos=1_1_ic_lord+walk

i have ordered some socks online…will update you how they are once i use them

disclosure : built position once i saw the ad on friday

Aman,

There is a third cyclone now and is heavily raining even today and is the forecast for next 48 hours. So the preparations for the 3rd crop looks significantly impacted and more curtailed. However, Dec and Jan are historically dry patches and should provide room for preparation.

On the financial front, most invest the savings in acquiring further land for farms and Nellore real estate is not so far away from Bangalore, so it might depend also on case to case basis.

Subash – We all are here to collaborate and learn from each other. Valuepickr is the best platform I ever came across and truly believe in the VP culture and ethos. Valuepickr has brought a radical positive change in my attitude towards investment and I am still at the lower end of the pyramid when it comes to skills and knowledge to become a successful investor. Still learning from senior folks like you.
I have looked upon you as a senior and admire the posts you used to create and share knowledge in last few years. However, to be honest, I am now very dissapointed to see your reaction to @adminph2. My friend it takes years to build a reputation and minutes to destroy it.

I just want to share few quotes that I always remind myself during this learning journey:

Ego kills Knowledge. As knowledge requires Learning, and Learning requires Humility.

Uncertainty is a sign of humility and humility is just the ability or the willingness to learn.

There’s a thin line between confidence and arrogance…It’s called humility. Confidence smiles. Arrogance Smirks.

Humility is the wisdom of accepting the truth that you might just be wrong or don’t know everything