Arvind infrastructure: Godrej Properties in the making?

Investment Rationale:

1. They are trying to create a brand in real estate similar to godrej properties which they aim to make it into top 10 real estate brands in the country. Except for godrej there is no other, pan india, good real estate brand (Their website has its CEOs interview in business standard which mention this). Also their sponsoring the GIHED event (largest property event in Gujarat) and getting awards of Luxury project of the year (Uplands) and Emerging developer of the year-Residential (although most awards r purchased ) shows that they r investing a lot of money in creating a brand.

2. They r following asset light model i.e. not blocking capital in land and hence most of the project is executed on sales proceeds - which is only possible in future if they successfully create a brand and land owners come to them for joint development like godrej

3. Their current projects have revenue potential of 2500cr (as per the presentation on their website) thus even if u assume about 10-15% PAT margin for a real estate project (which is very very conservative) than the profit potential for all of its projects in next 4-5 years is about 250-350cr and today the whole company is available at 190cr market cap

4. Another way of checking this calculation is that they r running projects totalling to about 1.5cr sqft as per the information memorandum....mostly in Ahmedabad and some in bangalore – taking profit per sqft of about Rs. 200-250 on a conservative side – the profit potential is 300-350cr and the whole company is available at 190cr market cap

5. Their largest project is Uplands in Ahmedabad where total revenue potential is Rs. 1200cr – as per the interview of its CEO on their website they sold stock of Rs. 200cr in such bad market till November 2014 – which was their full year’s sales target

6. In 2015 they booked profits of Rs. 10 cr in the 6th year of their operation, even if they book say Rs. 100cr profit in 2018-19 (which is where some of their current projects r expected to get completed, so on a project completion method they will be booking profits in the year of completion) and it gets lets say 20 PE (Godrej gets 40 PE currently) than the market cap becomes Rs. 2000cr

7. As per the management interview all of their projects r cashflow positive i.e. their capital involved is negative

8. So in a nutshell – a good upcoming brand, good and clean management, available at dirt cheap valuation (less than next 4-5 years profits), with great business model, good cashflows.

Discl: Starter position at 70 levels

Relevent Links:

http://www.arvindinfrastructure.com/news_events.php

http://www.arvindinfrastructure.com/IM-Arvind%20Infrastructure%20Limited-24.8.15-Compressed.pdf

http://www.arvindinfrastructure.com/Investors_Presentation.pdf

People have listed various problems with this company for reasons of not investing in it but my own reasons are: Their retail coffee chain would find it hard to grow.

I've seen CCD outlets besides highways where few people come, mostly in the more prosperous parts of the country. In cities like Pune, they are everywhere and hence few areas where they can set-up their outlets.

The only places left for them to have outlets are :
1. Small towns in west & south.
2. In east of country viz. UP, Bihar, WB etc.

For the first there is no male-female meetup culture, the primary reason for people to use such places. As such I don't see them setting up profitable franchisees here.

For the second, most middle class people don't have enough money to spend on CCD. And this would be the case for some time to come. Then there is the crime and the society in UP, Bihar.

If they can't increase their number of outlets, that doesn't mean their shares are not investible, just that they don't deserve the premium they're asking.

MD of V2 Retail has been sentenced to three months civil imprisonment. Details below:

A managing director of a company has been awarded three months civil imprisonment by the Delhi High Court for the firm's failure to file details of its assets in a matter pertaining to enforcement of an arbitral award.

Justice J R Midha said it was a fit case for exercise of powers
under the Code of Civil Procedure which provides for detention in civil
prison for not filing the affidavit as stipulated under the law.

"In the facts and circumstances of the case, in exercise of
power under the Code of Civil Procedure, the Managing Director of the
judgment debtor (V2 Retail) be detained in civil prison for a period of
three months," the court said and listed the matter for compliance on
October 28.

The judge passed the order as the company had not filed the
affidavit and its managing director was also not present in court during
hearing of the execution petition filed by S S Enterprises which had
sought securing of the arbitral award in its favour by attachment and
sale of V2 Retail's assets.

S S Enterprises' lawyer, Vijay Kasana, also submitted before the court that the amount payable by V2 Retail was Rs 73,90,650.

He also submitted the computation of the amount which the court
noted "has been verified by the accounts officer of this court to be
correct".

V2 Retail's lawyer disputed the computation and submitted that the amount would be Rs 61,58,000.

The lawyer also told the court that the company would be
depositing Rs 50 lakh with the Registrar General of the high court and
therefore, the requisite affidavit was not filed.

The court, however, said it was "not satisfied" with the
explanation given by V2 Retail's lawyer and directed him to file the
computation of amount, as claimed by the company, on affidavit within a
week.

Markets do not seem to have noticed this news. Funny, since promoter being jailed usually results in the stock nosediving.

The mandated holding by regulators is 75%. Hence the same is in line with the regulatory requirements.

Disclosed:Not invested

Suven seems to be trading cheap even now and its a matter of time that molecules keep moving from phase 2 to phase 3 and huge money comes in, thorough there is the chance of high rejection