Hello Abhishek,
Thanks for the post. I have a question on the promoter holding - 73.34% Isn't it above the holding mandated by regulators?
How liquid is the stock in the markets?
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Suven Life Sciences – Embedded triggers (12-10-2015)
Suven seems to be trading cheap even now and its a matter of time that molecules keep moving from phase 2 to phase 3 and huge money comes in, thorough there is the chance of high rejection
Phoenix lamps – rising up from the ashes? (12-10-2015)
Few observations:-
Phoenix face tough time with brand recall in B2C segment - During my visit to a Maruti Suzuki dealer, I observed a big poster on halogen lamps promoted by Philips. While Phoenix supplies halogen bulbs to most Maruti vehicles it is not a familiar name among retail consumers. Philips, on the other hand is in fact a household name and is trying to capitalise the same by offering win-win situation for both Maruti (peddling the Philips product at an extra cost to the consumer) and itself (in terms of displacing an established OEM supplier like PLL).
Working Capital Days (Cash conversion cycle) looks to be an issue. For Standalone basis, it is coming at ~120 days, for consolidated its coming at ~95 days. Is it due to sales mix of aftermarket/OEM??
Bleeding European subsidiaries are a concern and bring down EBITDA (at standalone basis) from +20% to ~12.5% (at consolidated basis). Infact in FY14 CFO decreased from INR 770 Mn to -INR 100 Mn. Even with management guidance of ~14.5% EBITDA, may be Euro. subsidaries would not be so profitable in near term
Looks more like wait and watch game where how new promoters can turn it around
Few other queries, would help if anyone has answer on it:-
a. production level/capacities for European subsidaries? what are the highest levels they can operate?
b. Working Capital management?
c. Capex cost of setting up manufcaturing unit, lets say 10 bulbs/yr?
d. reason for spike in sales in FY14 even at Standalone level
Phoenix Lamps - General Research.xlsx (62.2 KB)
Disc. Not invested. Have also posted numbers excel herewithin...
Century Ply – Khusiyon ka rangmanch (12-10-2015)
Thanks Abhishek,
Questions.
How do century ply compare with greenply? The operating cashflows for greenply are strong compared to century ply. The ROE, ROA, ROCE figures might look good for century ply but the actual underlying owner earnings is less compared to greenply.
Regarding debt levels company is continuously raising debt. Are they having aggressive expansion plans. Any info about it?
Syngene International IPO – Views invited (12-10-2015)
Put technical charts to confirm your claim for the expected target.
Shalibhadra Finance – Steady Growth NBFC (12-10-2015)
Read through the entire thread again yesterday. Must compliment you on the way you've patiently answered each question with a lot of pertinent details about the company, business model, industry, etc.
So - I'm almost convinced about the management and it's execution capability given it's excellent track record and risk management capabilities.
Looking at some valuation metrics - apart from RoA - it looks like a good bet on all other parameters (RoE, Revenue growth, NIM, P/B, PEG, P/E).
But the RoA is currently around .95% which is poor when compared to other NBFCs (Gruh has a RoA of 2.2% - not a same industry comparison but then the valuations are accorded based on average/excellent numbers I think. And since it's mortgages are always depreciating assets - RoA should be even better than average HFCs whose mortgages appreciate and are less risky). And I believe it has do with their high CAR and this has been documented in the thread about the company intending to grow faster.
Based on that - only if they start increasing the loan book growth aggressively (min 25% yoy for 3-4 years) should we expect a re-rating IMHO.
Disc - Invested (deliberating on increasing size of bet)
V2 Retail – Second innings playing out well (12-10-2015)
Friends,
v2 retail site flashing official launch of http://www.v2kart.com soon. Can it compete with e-commerce giants? How is the quality of low cost stuff by v2? Will it become asset or liability ?
Annual report is out, http://www.v2retail.com/investors/annual-reports/
Any latest information on contingent liabilities? Management always says "remote chances of cases proved against co"...!!!!
Disclosure: Invested
V-Mart Retail Ltd (11-10-2015)
Are we being overly optimistic and closing all possibilities of negative outcomes in this stock? I had been to this store quite a few times and didn't anything so different that this retailer would stand out. They do have a first mover advantage in some of the markets but first mover advantage is not enough of a moat in this business.
Page industries (11-10-2015)
I have a similar feeling that it is poised to make a big move in some direction. I have noticed that every small rally is being sold into. IMO, the breakdown could happen post Q2 results unless some big down move in indexes happen before. The biggest outperformer of the last bull market is obvious target for profit booking
Disc: Hold Page
Support for fresh portfolio building – Thanks (11-10-2015)
Hi Varun,
Agree that Kaveri should bounce back sooner than we possibly imagine. Definitely shouldn't turn out like the Infosys example I gave.
Regarding 'wealth destruction' - Again agree that it's probably too soon (one quarter only) to classify it using that term.
But as I said it's most likely going to take a long time before it comes into the wealth creation bucket. Anyway, edited my 1st post above 
Take your points and preferred your words of communication in the 2nd message.