Positives :
1) orient bell will derive much more benefit from falling crude as they use LPG for manufacturing at Bangalore(Rural) plant and LPG cost has come down much more than RLNG
2) Reducing debt and reduction of interest rate .
3) JV/ outsourcing model if successful can reduce future capex requirements
Concerns :
with slowdown in real estate activity , business growth may slow down.
People have listed various problems with this company for reasons of not investing in it but my own reasons are: Their retail coffee chain would find it hard to grow.
I've seen CCD outlets besides highways where few people come, mostly in the more prosperous parts of the country. In cities like Pune, they are everywhere and hence few areas where they can set-up their outlets.
The only places left for them to have outlets are :
1. Small towns in west & south.
2. In east of country viz. UP, Bihar, WB etc.
For the first there is no male-female meetup culture, the primary reason for people to use such places. As such I don't see them setting up profitable franchisees here.
For the second, most middle class people don't have enough money to spend on CCD. And this would be the case for some time to come. Then there is the crime and the society in UP, Bihar.
If they can't increase their number of outlets, that doesn't mean their shares are not investible, just that they don't deserve the premium they're asking.
So, Page proves me right, that I'm the worst technical analyst 
It moved up 3% as I write this with not high volumes though. Anyway, let's wait and watch. Sorry for back to back technical predictions which is not my forte. I will stick to what I know best.
MD of V2 Retail has been sentenced to three months civil imprisonment. Details below:
A managing director of a company has been awarded three months civil imprisonment by the Delhi High Court for the firm's failure to file details of its assets in a matter pertaining to enforcement of an arbitral award.
Justice J R Midha said it was a fit case for exercise of powers
under the Code of Civil Procedure which provides for detention in civil
prison for not filing the affidavit as stipulated under the law."In the facts and circumstances of the case, in exercise of
power under the Code of Civil Procedure, the Managing Director of the
judgment debtor (V2 Retail) be detained in civil prison for a period of
three months," the court said and listed the matter for compliance on
October 28.The judge passed the order as the company had not filed the
affidavit and its managing director was also not present in court during
hearing of the execution petition filed by S S Enterprises which had
sought securing of the arbitral award in its favour by attachment and
sale of V2 Retail's assets.S S Enterprises' lawyer, Vijay Kasana, also submitted before the court that the amount payable by V2 Retail was Rs 73,90,650.
He also submitted the computation of the amount which the court
noted "has been verified by the accounts officer of this court to be
correct".V2 Retail's lawyer disputed the computation and submitted that the amount would be Rs 61,58,000.
The lawyer also told the court that the company would be
depositing Rs 50 lakh with the Registrar General of the high court and
therefore, the requisite affidavit was not filed.The court, however, said it was "not satisfied" with the
explanation given by V2 Retail's lawyer and directed him to file the
computation of amount, as claimed by the company, on affidavit within a
week.
Markets do not seem to have noticed this news. Funny, since promoter being jailed usually results in the stock nosediving.
Both Greenply & Century are good companies. Century is investing in MDF and Particle Board manufacturing plants. Greenply had invested in capacity addition a couple of years back, I think, so last few years capex was low.
Greenply had moved to MDF a few years back and Century is following suit only now. Also, laminates Green is better placed. However, now they have 2 listed entities for the ply & laminates businesses. In Century one can get both the businesses under one roof.
The mandated holding by regulators is 75%. Hence the same is in line with the regulatory requirements.
Disclosed:Not invested
Hello Abhishek,
Thanks for the post. I have a question on the promoter holding - 73.34% Isn't it above the holding mandated by regulators?
How liquid is the stock in the markets?
Suven seems to be trading cheap even now and its a matter of time that molecules keep moving from phase 2 to phase 3 and huge money comes in, thorough there is the chance of high rejection
Few observations:-
Phoenix face tough time with brand recall in B2C segment - During my visit to a Maruti Suzuki dealer, I observed a big poster on halogen lamps promoted by Philips. While Phoenix supplies halogen bulbs to most Maruti vehicles it is not a familiar name among retail consumers. Philips, on the other hand is in fact a household name and is trying to capitalise the same by offering win-win situation for both Maruti (peddling the Philips product at an extra cost to the consumer) and itself (in terms of displacing an established OEM supplier like PLL).
Working Capital Days (Cash conversion cycle) looks to be an issue. For Standalone basis, it is coming at ~120 days, for consolidated its coming at ~95 days. Is it due to sales mix of aftermarket/OEM??
Bleeding European subsidiaries are a concern and bring down EBITDA (at standalone basis) from +20% to ~12.5% (at consolidated basis). Infact in FY14 CFO decreased from INR 770 Mn to -INR 100 Mn. Even with management guidance of ~14.5% EBITDA, may be Euro. subsidaries would not be so profitable in near term
Looks more like wait and watch game where how new promoters can turn it around
Few other queries, would help if anyone has answer on it:-
a. production level/capacities for European subsidaries? what are the highest levels they can operate?
b. Working Capital management?
c. Capex cost of setting up manufcaturing unit, lets say 10 bulbs/yr?
d. reason for spike in sales in FY14 even at Standalone level
Phoenix Lamps - General Research.xlsx (62.2 KB)
Disc. Not invested. Have also posted numbers excel herewithin...
Thanks Abhishek,
Questions.
How do century ply compare with greenply? The operating cashflows for greenply are strong compared to century ply. The ROE, ROA, ROCE figures might look good for century ply but the actual underlying owner earnings is less compared to greenply.
Regarding debt levels company is continuously raising debt. Are they having aggressive expansion plans. Any info about it?