Posts tagged Value Pickr
Neo Corp-Growth Machine in Technical Textiles(CAGR 35%)! (10-10-2015)
Hello Vikskukreja,
Thanks for pointing this and yes they did the IPO but when some Institution does some IPO(of another company), it of course does checks the details of the company, potential of the company and most importantly valuation of the company through detailed process and scrutiny and if they are not satisfied they rejects the company------as there is every chance of under subscription and in that case the underwriter(VLS in this case) will have to absorb the remaining shares-----so in this case VLS must have realized the potential and valuation of "Relaxo" and that is why they went ahead with the IPO------so the skill and effort VLS had put and selected "Relaxo" , that itself proves VLS's has good investing strategy-------and also apart from Relaxo , VLS has some other good stocks in the portfolio as well-------so overall VLS is doing well-----now the decision here is instead of buying a holding company VLS , we can select the company directly(in this case its Neo)----------basically its equal credit to find a good company from primary market(IPO) and find a good company from secondary market.....
I request all again to give their valuable inputs so that we can evaluate this company-----with the demand of Technical textiles increasing hugely in India as well as other countries like USA, Latin America and other countries, I think this Technical textiles sector should perform well in near future-----and with good capacity of Neo, we can investigate this company further!!!!!!!
Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (10-10-2015)
Portfolio Update - Period of inactivity in this week. Portfolio performed slightly better than Nifty benchmark. Good traction seen in Care ratings, HSIL, Gati, DHFL and Kaveri seeds which help outperform the index marginally.
Stocks to ponder over and research further
a. Camlin Fine sciences
b. TCPL Packaging
c. Edelweiss finacials
d. SPARC
Thoughts - Patanjali growth can be slight disruptive event for many FMCG companies. Need to carefully watch out the FMCG stocks we are invested in.
Support for fresh portfolio building – Thanks (10-10-2015)
I agree. When earnings visibility becomes hazy de-rating happens. Makes sense to stick to ones own circle of competence, where future earnings can be predicted to a extent.
I would like to add one other important point to the list. To check if cash flow from operations matches that of PAT. Lots of micro cap companies have realised our love for earnings & return ratios, they pump up the earnings on the PL account. Only way to verify them is by checking the cash flow statement. There are many which do not match.
They run up in good time but will bite back later.
Ex : Tree house education.
Cash flows did not match PAT. Later ,the issue raised by an NGO on high accounts receivable , crashed tree house's price to a 52 week low inspite of good growth and return ratios . Though the company came up with a clarification , the issue is still not clear.
Dr Vijay malik's blog provides a simple tool for analysing the same. Thanks to him.
Neo Corp-Growth Machine in Technical Textiles(CAGR 35%)! (10-10-2015)
VLS didn't discover relaxo, they were part of relaxo IPO process, and held shares during IPO when takers were not enough.
Cafe Coffee Day – Will you Date? (10-10-2015)
Lets not base our decision based on what p/e investors are doing. They have deep pockets to take risk and even if something goes wrong they will be compensated behind the screen. Listing can be an exit route for p/e investors.
See the total debt level.Consolidated debt of Rs. 3,800 Cr. as of February 15, 2015. d/e 3.90.
The Company faces competition from QSR - McDonald’s, Dominos, Dunkin Donuts, KFC, Pizza Hut, etc in addition to pure coffee chain. Mr Ambaliga who has worked in the Group has commented that the company is incurring losses on coffee shops and it tallies with closure of 175 shops.
They are in the business for the last 15 years and why still losses. Its arms are also making lossess. No dividend history. When such a business with a long existence is still making losses and using IPO money to pay off debts, it is not a good business.
It may be a leader with 1500 outlets ( far ahead of Barista) but whether it makes cashflow that is important. A good business pays off debt by internal accruals and again equity financing is expensive than debt.
I have given the facts and view and it is for the individual to take a call. My single biggest risk factor is debt and would refrain from posting further on this.
Rgds,
SYMPHONY COMFORT — ? inverted head and shoulders (10-10-2015)
Claims from the AR
- 8 out of 10 customers who walk in to buy a cooler ask for symphony.
- Their tonnage based 4-12 ton air coolers for the market 'in between' residential and industrial coolers has received a good response. Calling it the Rolls Royce of air coolers. Symphony expects this to be a game changer.
My place(TN) not being a ideal place for coolers I find very few new models here. Hope members from the west / north could verify these claims and the customer response to the new ton based cooler.
SYMPHONY COMFORT — ? inverted head and shoulders (10-10-2015)
Key points from Mr Nrupesh shah's interview on Bloomberg.
Regarding MKE acquisition:
1) China has a trade agreement with several south east Asian nations. Symphony sees this as a doorway to that market.
2) While Indian exporters have to go and search for customers in the international market, western companies approach Chinese manufacturers on their own. Symphony sees this as a opportunity for accessing this western mkt.
3) MKE's R&D facility is one of the best in Asia. Better than symphonys, it matches US & Australian standards.
Regarding new competition in domestic MKT:
- Symphony has been in the air cooler market for 27 years. They 'know' the customers and the traders expectations. Air coolers while looking like a simple white box has 200 parts in it. Symphony's 100% focus on air coolers allows them to provide better products, newer products with customer centric features and esthetics ( in comparison to air coolers just being one other product in competitors portfolio).
They are confident of maintaining their market share (45%-50%). + growth from the unbranded to branded aspirational shift .
Future growth drivers:
1) Domestic market - Short term to medium term growth
2) International market - Medium term to long term growth . International mkt currently contributing 15%. They will take it to 50%.
3) Industrial coolers - Long term growth.
Nifty PE crosses 24|A statistically informed entry-exit model! (10-10-2015)
I think nobody can predict exactly when the market will crash.
As I said in my post - Just a few pointers as to when you may start accumulating cash instead of taking fresh positions in equity.
Yes, MCap to GDP is also useful to look at. But can't be looked at in isolation, need to combine with other factors as highlighted above. Another point to consider maybe - net profit margin of Nifty companies. Historical analysis of profit margins will tell you they should revert to a mean if they are at historical highs because competition will never allow companies to garner huge/easy profits.
Another point to consider - as Krishnaraj has highlighted that these P/E numbers are not consolidated earnings number so the current number is actually below 20.
Technicals - Have very little knowledge and don't trade. Absolutely no idea on Futures / Spot trade, etc.