Hi Rupesh,

I had a difference of opinion on few points and hence stating them with due respect:
1. Cement firms are normally valued on an EV to Capacity basis and EV to EBITDA basis and looking at PE might not be the right way to look at a cement company. (However size of the plant, geographical location, mgmt. quality, etc.,. should be considered as well).
2. In cyclical businesses earning swings can be very wide and hence I am not a big fan of looking at EPS or average there offs and I think that one should take a broad macro call on the economy (Earnings swings is also one of the reasons coz of which cement companies should not be valued on a PE basis). So if one feels that the stock might have bottomed out and macros will improve resulting in a sustained period of demand off take then one should invest. (one might like to consider other supporting factors as well while taking a call, say company with better margins, low debt, etc.,. in the sector per se) I personally prefer going with decent sized players in such an industry but if there is good undervaluation in a small player with good visibility of earnings ahead, reducing debt, improving margins, etc, etc.,. then I don't mind a small cap/small capacity player too.
3. ROE and ROCEs can fluctuate too coz of the nature of the business (Shree maybe an exception and hence has been rewarded over the years, although I don't have a view on it. Just stated this trying to pre-empt just in case Shree might be quoted).

Discl: I am an amateur investor and might be biased in my views as I am positive on cement as a sector since last 2 qtrs. Apart from positive commentary from some mgmts. at a ground level have heard from transporters about increased cement movements and some government spending etc.,. actually kicking in.
Invested in NCL industries as well since sometime due to reasons already covered by few boarders in NCL thread and due to my views expressed above.

I wasn't able to attend the Shilpa AGM this time due to personal preoccupations.
Thanks to Ankit & Ananth, now I can try to come upto speed quickly. Just to get the discussions rolling, here are my initial thoughts from an initial reading.

Key business drivers for the medium term

Positives
1. ICE Segment
Unlike earlier understanding (AGM 2014), Standalone ICE CRAMS revenues looks likely to continue/increase without declines. till FY17 at the least. FY15 this segment had contributed slightly more than half of standalone Sales. As shifting out entire production to JV is delayed (and consequent 50% revenue recognition), this segment contribution/growth looks secure?

1. Capacetabine API
   With a 4x increase in capacity underway, the main growth driver in the medium term seems to be Capacetabine? Even assuming a 33% decline in price, we are still looking at least a 2.5x jump in Volumes/Revenues in couple of years. Do we know the timeframes of utilisation of this expanded capacity, how much to expect in FY16 for example. I would think a 1.5x- 2x jump straightaway, as there is no time to lose in view of more players in formulations market - implying more opportunity for Shilpa?

This again seems to be a positive development from what we had understood in 2014 AGM. This should offset the effect of Gemcitabine decline in volumes and still provide for decent additional growth?

The global market of Capacitabine is about 100T if I remember correctly. I don't have any idea of Shilpa's Capacetabine volumes but they should be having upwards of 10% market share (the ambitions are to reach a 25% market share here eventually?) easily, we may like to try and put a figure to the annual sales contribution from this product??

1. Imatinib Mysalate API
   This is stated as the next big contributor after Capacitabine. This will start contributing from FY17 right? Again I may be mistaken, but I remember they were not so bullish about this at 2014 AGM, saying NATCO will be the main gainer, as they have sealed up relationships. And Shilpa had not invested much in augmenting capacities for the same. Again I see this as a positive development over AGM 2014.

2. Japanese CRAMS
   FY 17 50 Cr revenue visibility. The first good visibility sign of a promising future growth driver?? with enough signs of a scalable opportunity with multiple relationships in a market where others will take 5 more years to enter??

Negatives
1. Formulations
Unable to factor in anything significant till FY17, because approvals taking time till June 2016 or later?

What is the Management view on delayed approvals impact on formulations player contracts for major molecules in FY17 like Imatinib Mysalate - where they may not be able to service the opportunity/or a major part of the opportunity?

Did we ask if there have been any major customer switches due to delays?

Those who attended the 2015 AGM, please comment freely on my observations. What are the other major takeaways from the discussions?

This looks like a serious issue. Is this the beginning of the end of sea food industry boom?

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cambridge-tech18001-year-whats-making-it-tick_3489121.html

hi everyone, while reviewing clouds this is another company , appearing on the radar, the company is with new management and has grown from a market cap of 15 cr to 250 Cr. in last one year.

any one has any update on this,
stock is hitting the upper limit for many days , while it looks promising, I am scared of investing at these levels, any expert opinion would be great

I was quite surprised to know that there in no writeup on this company, so here goes…

What if I told you there is a company meeting the the following investment criteria, would you be interested :

1. MNC company
2. 75% held by promoters
3. 10 paid up
4. zero long term debt
5. doing quarterly sales of 300r +
6. quarterly ebitda 34 cr+
7. Dividend paying
8. Had 3 manufacturing facilities with combined area 1.27 million sq feet
9. Investor friendly management which gives quarterly ppt and does concalls with investors
10. Available at mcap of 1300 cr
11. Reliance MF building up position every quarter

Sounds interesting..the name of the company is Styrolution ABS (India) Limited. It is the market leader for ABS (Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene, 45% india market share, capacity 110,000 mtpa ) and SAN (Styrene Acrylonitrile, 60% india market share, capacity 100,000 mtpa ) in India with three manufacturing facilities located in Gujarat.

ABS is a styrenics co-polymer used for manufacturing plastic components for a wide range of applications, with a major focus on automotive, household appliances, electronics,etc.
SAN is a transparent styrenics copolymer used mainly in applications including household appliances, imitation jewellery, etc

For full range of applications its good to visit www.styrolution.com and check out products and industries. This is the website of the MNC parent ... will give you an idea of the full range of product application.

The parent is also strong with sales of 5.4 billion Euros in 2014 and is the leading global styrenics supplier . A 80 year old company , Styrolution ( the parent ) employs around 3100 people, operates 15 manufacturing sites in 9 countries, and has a broad customer base spread across over 100 countries worldwide.

Other key facts
- 70% of sales comes from specialty and 30% from commodity products
- crude is key raw material
- current capacity utilization for specialty is 80%…will hit 100% in 2 years
- they work on cost plus model, so neutral to crude price. However they need to book inventory loss/ gain if oil moves down/up respectively
- margin on specialty is double that of commodity products
- competition is from one local player and imports
- the specialized polymer industry grows at more than GDP, and this company aims to grow at atleast 2% more than the industry.

Given the above, I feel the stock needs to be re-rated.

Discl : invested at slightly higher levels
map when posted : 1300 cr