Everything looks great about the company however I believe people are getting scared due to ageing Mr. Saraf and new management being able to step up and deliver on the promises.
Especially with a large capex around the corner, not sure how the performance would continue from hereon. Also they have stopped doing concalls etc which is another concerning area if they are hesitant about something.
Discl: Tracking position
IMO they don’t have an option to go for volume led model. Working cap mgmt. will be too much of a distraction for them
Any clue about Today’s closure of 20% upper circuit? Only justification for such rise could be from Vietnam capacity expansion/ announcement of new client addition comparable to Hanes in my opinion.
Discl: Invested and have purchased in last 6 months
Hmm, may be I didn’t put my thoughts clearly. We already have threads where the basic premise is to take some decision based on the current state of the market, like http://forum.valuepickr.com/t/nifty-pe-crosses-24-a-statistically-informed-entry-exit-model/1214 My idea behind starting this thread was to record cliched events (like in a journal with mutliple authors) which are reminiscent of middle/late stage bull markets without making any predictions/recommendations (observe rather than act, much like meditation) based on any such event, e.g.
Moderator, please remove this thread or change the description in the first post if it seems like a duplicate.
Sure, Sorry but I am not so regular on forum so bad habits 
Will do from next time.
In this case, I owned Phoenix at the time of AGM and I don’t hold any now.
I have a disconnect with this. The components of the nifty are now mostly has-beens .
The following are definitely either on their way down, or are staring at stagnant numbers for the near future
since the basket itself is wobbly…using it as a guiding tool may not be the best strategy.
Hi,
Perhaps this link is helpful. It’s a comparison of Nse earnings, when investment is done at different P/E.
http://www.stableinvestor.com/p/state-of-market.html?m=1
My suggestion would be to stay invested, though trying to time the market may appear tempting.
Warm Regards,
S
I also do not expect a good PE levels or PE expansion for cement companies going forward. Here are some other comparisons
Panyam is 157 crs (TTM, till Jun-15) sales with MCap of 158 crs.
Deccan is 562 crs (TTM) sales with MCap of 391 crs
Panyam has done 0.32 crs of profits (TTM, till Jun-15)
Deccan has done 48 crs of PAT (TTM, till Sep-15).
Panyam has D/E ratio of > 5 with -ve reserves (-1.76) on Equity of 16.02. Debts 3 yrs back was 65.28 crs (Mar-13) and currently it is 81.48 crs
Deccan has D/E ratio of 0.65 with reserves of ~160 crs on equity of 7 crs Debts 3 yrs back was 236 crs (Mar-13) and currently it is 160 crs
Panyam has started showing good numbers from last 1/2 qtrs where as deccan has done it for 6 straight quarters.
Rest of the comparison is done by hrfacebuk.
I for sure think that market will value Deccan more than Panyam which it is currently doing it and the gap may increase going forward if they both give same kind of performance going forward.
Disclosure: Had Panyam from 55 levels when one fund was selling but booked 75% profits and moved to Deccan Cements. This is not a long term hold is I believe due to cyclical nature. Will decide holding based on south cements conditions.
Slight correction bro*:
Nifty p/e (for consolidated earnings) is abt 19. Read the post from krishnaraj –
Hi,
Check this link. http://www.motilaloswalmf.com/plans/movi-pack-plan
This also gives us a rough guidance that mr.Market is heating up or cooling off. The value index looks to be quite useful.