I appreciate it, advertise, monetize your product more sustainably for wide reach and large market.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
PDS Limited – A platform for entrepreneurs (11-06-2024)
PDS have released their Investor Day Presentation
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/d7d4e6ae-3884-49ed-a6cf-8276a63278ee.pdf
What amazes me is this slide
If they are really able to pull this off in next 5 years then we are onto something big
Annapurna Swadisht Ltd – A Swadisht FMCG investment? (11-06-2024)
The first result after listing might have been updated in August 23 for fy23.
Focus Lighting & Fixtures Limited (SME) (11-06-2024)
The company seems to be truly innovative in terms of product design and applications. They have lot of patents as per their latest concall. This concall and presentation provides lot of insights on the innovation that the company is doing.
Such a company with distinguished products should command some pricing power and favorable trade terms. The trade terms are clearly not in line with that.
The debtor days have almost doubled to 140 days from 68 days. This is the highest it has ever been. The entire amount (almost) of 85 crs of debtors pertain to Home and Retail division whereas management alluded it to Infra division in the concall. This seems to be a key monitorable as this amount is 75% of the sales of both the divisions for the last 2 quarters. The question is if there is anything more to read into this. CFO/Op. Profit = ~9% for last 7 years.
The company will require additional debt / fund raise to achieve it’s desired growth of 30% if debtor days stay elevated.
Lazycap’s Portfolio – Feedback (11-06-2024)
Update
Sold out Avanti feeds fully at 637, might get in around 500s if market permits
Sold out and booked -45% loss in Heranba at 300, it apparently moved +12% after I sold such is market. It has been the case with most till date, but you do what you gotta do
Sold out Matrimony at -1% loss after holding 2+ years, might get it at 500s if market permits. Sold as my buy price was not justifying the growth
Overall with all above three positions CAGR was 12% which is kind of bad. Other than that portfolio stands at +30%
Holding good cash like 15%, looking for some options to deploy. Radiant is one option but want to check into some large cap. Star health looks okay but unable to convince myself of the valuation
I think I am being more active in terms of portfolio turnover than required, need to keep it in check but then it’s a process and keeps evolving maybe. Postmortem will teach the lessons later on
Page industries (11-06-2024)
PAGE Industries -
Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 995 vs 964 cr, up 3 pc ( sales volumes @ at 4.53 cr pieces, up 6 pc YoY )
EBITDA - 167 vs 134 cr, up 24 pc ( margins @ 17 vs 14 pc - nice recovery in margins )
PAT - 108 vs 78 cr, up 38 pc
FY 24 outcomes -
Revenues - 4581 vs 4712 cr, down 3 pc ( due subdued H1 in FY 24. Volumes @ 20.2 cr pieces - down 2 pc YoY )
EBITDA - 872 vs 862 cr, up 1.1 pc ( margins @ 19.1 vs 18.3 pc )
PAT - 569 vs 571 cr ( largely flat )
Strong growth witnessed in the E-Comm channel - reflecting change in consumer behaviour. Retail sector continues to report subdued demand scenario
Company is continuously expanding its distribution network in tier - 2,3 cities
Company’ distribution is led by -
Company led -
1382 Exclusive brand outlets ( EBOs )
43 exclusive women outlets
64 exclusive junior outlets
17 factory outlets
Modern retail led -
Company’s products are sold via 13 Organised retail chains across their 1132 stores
Multi-Brand - general retail -
Number of Distributors @ 4123 across 2750 cities, towns. Products are available in 1.06 lakh retail outlets
Company is making disproportionate investments in the Women, Kids segments. Investing behind tailored marketing campaigns targeting younger audience
Have relaunched Jockey.in, Speedo.in - for better customer experience
Company is expecting improved demand scenario for its athleisure products
In house manufacturing @ 80 pc, Outsourced @ 20 pc. Manufacturing facilities spread across 14 locations in Karnataka and 01 location in TN. 01 new facility is under construction in Orrisa
Expecting a gradual recovery in demand for the company’s products in FY 25. Expect stronger demand in H2
Current inventory @ retail / EBO levels should be around 20 cr pieces. That’s well within routine business norms
Athleisure as a category is again starting signs of growth after a demand surge in 2020-22 ( during pandemic ) and subsequent demand slowdown in last 6-7 Qtrs. Channel inventories have also corrected significantly
E-Comm grew by 30 pc in Q4 and contributed to 8 pc of sales
Seeing lower pricing discounts from competition
Once the demand picks up, company is confident that they should be the first ones to bounce back
Will continue to spend 4-4.5 pc of sales towards brand promotion / advertisements
Opinion: As consumption demand picks up, company may be in for a turnaround
Disc: Hence initiated a tracking position, biased, not SEBI registered
SKM Egg Products – thinking out of the shell (11-06-2024)
Whats encouraging it - The market size is 90,000 Cr. (from the heading at least). SKM’s sales is only 701 Cr. for last year. The market size is big. And above that, SKM with lots of efforts have secured the approvals to export to certain countries.
Blue Star ~ Leading player in RAC & Commercial Refrigeration (Market Leader) (11-06-2024)
Hey @royatirek thanks for these screenshots. Can you help me and tell me the source of the first screenshot of mutual fund holdings?
Sahil’s Portfolio (11-06-2024)
Hi Sahil,
“This was extremely helpful”. I appreciate you clarity and analysis ability. I am not young like you. I have seen many bear and bull markets since Harshad Mehta time, and also faced 2008 subprime crisis. IMHO while making investing decisions, calculating an ‘expected value’ intuitively is an effective way to decide what choice to make – play the game or not.
“What is expected value?” you may wonder.
In the 1989 AGM of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett was asked about his approach to risk and investment decision making, and he replied –
Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do. It’s imperfect, but that’s what it’s all about.
As an equation, it reads thus –
Success in investing = (Probability of gain X Amount of possible gain) – (Probability of loss X Amount of possible loss) = A positive number
Michael Mauboussin describes this concept as expected value. It is actually a very simple concept.
In essence, you don’t have to be right a lot, you just have to be right about your big bets at the right time. Here, while the probabilities matter a lot, so do the consequences i.e., amount of possible gain/loss.
It is important to get that equation right.
If you are willing to buy a stock, say, priced at 60-70x P/E or more, thinking the probability of it going higher is good, also remember the consequence of a period of weakness/slowdown in business. Such expensively priced stocks ride on high expectations, and the consequences of a small slip could be really bad.
Given that we often tell ourselves false stories to avoid the truth, with our minds clouded by denial, optimism and negative decision-making tendencies, the expected value idea can help us avoid the landmine of expensive, hot and bad stocks that cover a large ground in stock investing.
Buffett says –
In order to succeed you must first survive.
The stock market is not a casino. Unlike a casino, the longer you play here, the more are your chances to win (survive and thrive). But it’s important to –
- Play by a process and stick with it through the cycles.
- Think and act like owner of businesses and not renter of stocks.
- Use the expected value model to decide which businesses you want to own (where the expected value answer is positive) and which ones you must avoid (where the answer is negative).
Regards