Hitesh,
I agree, most of the recent research reports, by Emkay, icici etc estimate a Rs 80 fy17 EPS, and have given targets of 1700 + giving a very reasonable valuation of around 18 FY 17 EPS.
FY 16 EPS estimateD is expected to double, to Rs 90 from 44 in fy 15.
What the co does with this cash is also imp, if it acquires something or shares with shareholders.
But one thing is sure that it is a very safe bet with limited downside and there can be upside if Mr M takes notice of the same.
With capex being completed, the base business itself should be able to grow 15%. Overall they should deliver a 20%+ growth for next 2-3 years. The windfall from gAbilify can help them retire debt as well as acquire a company to strengthen their portfolio.
They should definitely do an 80+ eps for FY17 and with a conservative PE of 20, we have some upside right now and at least a 25% in next one year.
Well done Ayush and thanks a lot to you and your team for your kind contribution. Screener is indeed a very special gift to new investors like me , was keen to know any link where some queries regarding working on screener filters could be discussed, pls send the link for such forum or page, thanks once again.
Agree, a bit uneasy with respect to this stock movement, HOWEVER,
Let us see how the business is doing currently: There is nothing that makes me believe that its business fundamentals have changed. There could be few muted quarter in between, no business can avoid this. But during this time, the distribution channels the company build, the dealer-management relationship, brand building, product stickiness, high RoE will help immensely to turn the tide, IF at all. Growth will be there for the next 3-5 years in all probability. How much of this is already built into the stock price is another debate all together and whether one should invest at what valuations is left to each ones comfort. Also, I BELIEVE, if one should invest or not also depends on PORTFOLIO SIZE. For large portfolios it makes sense to hold on to Page given the hard work the management has done to make Page what it is today.
How the business is likely to do: The opportunity for growth is still immense as, as per AGM Page still accounts for 8% of the total available opportunity. I see aggressive online ads from Tommy Hilfiger figuring Nadal. I think MNCs are making a comeback again to be ready for the economic upswing. During the initial stages of aggressive BRAND AWARENESS, the existing brands get more sales than the one doing the marketing (ironically). Going forward, the women wear, kids wear should help sustain growth. I somehow think, if economy grows at 10% in 2 years, Page can grow at 40% even on higher base.
Exports and Swinwear: Currently, the company though has license in Sri Lanka, Nepal, UAE (middle east?), the company has not concentrated much as home market is good enough to attain scale, but I think these countries hold the key to Page becoming mega large cap. I moved to a gated community in Hyderabad and I see kids, kids, kids so much interested in swimming and I hope the parents would buy speedo as parents always want the best for kids, inevitably.
As I always disclose, my holding in the stock may attribute to the positive rants that I make. Should one buy or not is personal decision taking into consideration "how he/she thinks that valuations hold or not" NOT on "if current valuation is high" as valuation for businesses for Page will always be high. Whether it will hold or not is what you need to decide. For Page investors, looking at Nestle, Gillette, Bluedart, Eicher may give proper sleep 
Page price behave does not seem encouraging to me.. few weeks back it was broadly consolidating between 13500 and 14500... and now between 12800-13500. Do not remember Page shown this type of pattern earlier.
Little interesting to see the consolidation going on in the stocks that I hold, I believe this consolidation is precursor to the next rally, hopefully.
Page Industries: Around 13000. Range 12800-13300.
Repco Home: Consolidated around 640-680-700 and now around 730-740.
Gruh Finance: Consolidated around 220-240, now range 260-270.
PI Industries: Very good consolidation around 630-650.
MPS Ltd: Superb consolidation around 780-800.
I'm sure at least 3 stocks from the above will break OUT from their respective ranges, if not all 
.
santosh,
While applying PE one has to look at normalised EPS figures. fy 16 would be a one off due to blockbuster performance of abillify and its contribution to profits and sales.
What it does in fy 17 and beyond needs to be considered. However the cash kitty generated due to abilify windfall could provide a lot of options to the management.
Hi Vivek ,
I attended Kaveri AGM .
I was tracking only main thread but happened to see this thread on Kaveri after AGM.
Some of your questions addressed in AGM QA.
Q1.How big is threat from price control from State govt on line of Maha Govt
Less, May be they bring back to the MRP Rs 900.
Q2 Not discussed.
Q3 What are the chance of increase in cotton acreage for next season?
Not discussed. But company is targeting to sell 90L packets for next season.
4) How big is the threat from CICR new BT cotton included seed expected to be available @150 vs 900 .can it be reused next year also?
Not discussed.
5) Will dumping by your competitors stop & steps u retaking to mitigate it?
One of the MD was saying this is always there in the market, best seed survives.
6) How is the threat from new Bayer new seed First Class?
Not discussed.
7)r u developing new seed which r more drought resistant & how to cope with monsoon vagaries?
Company New Hybrid 'Three-by-One'.
8) how r u reducing dependency on cotton seeds?
Looking for acquisition in vegetable seed sector and it is the reason that they are holding the cash.
As per company Vegetable seed sector is one of fastest growing market and they are cognizant of the high cash on books.
Q2,Q4,Q6 not covered as part of QA.
(I urge VP admin to unlock the main thread, if they are done with the required
Clean-up/Maintenance).
Other updates
Company is going to consider Buyback
Toughest Year in career of Chairman(35 yrs exp, comments made on monsoon pattern and two consecutive droughts )
May not continue with Cash and Carry next season.
Monsoon was not good in Kaveri strongholds ( Regions :Rayalaseema ,Karnataka) this year. Though some parts
are now recovered, it may be helpful only in Rabi crop.
Company reached saturation of 75% penetration in some regions like AP, Telangana and Karnataka,next leg of growth can only come from Gujarat and Maharashtra.
Company has around 12-13% market share this year.I am attaching Chairman's speech for more details.Kaveri Seeds_Chairman speech.pdf (1.8 MB)
Disclaimer :Invested
Mayur seems to be undergoing time correction currently.
the management does seem quite confident in their annual report communication.