thanks for sharing your meeting notes.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
My richdreamz portfolio – visit my portfolio to learn together! (28-09-2015)
I have initiated position in MPS and I have written about it in the MPS thread - link provided below.
MPS Ltd (28-09-2015)
I have initiated a position in MPS after having done a bit of research for the past 1 month on the publishing industry and reading through this informative thread thrice over.
Firstly, congrats for the members for identifying this turnaround during initial stages itself. There are very high chances of this turnaround further fructifying into growth story coupled with high return ratios of the business.
My summary:
Nishith Arora has fantastic business acumen, going by his MPS buy out, turning it around, other small acquisitions. A la Piramal. At the current stage the company is in, his eye for making that inorganic growth happen is crucial.
I liked the new structure now, Nishith concentrates on strategic acquisitions (for inorganic revenue growth) while his son Rahul on day to day operations (for organic revenue growth). Rahul has even moved to US to be closer to clients which should enable his objective.
At the current price, the stock is lower than the price paid by Goldman Sachs, HDFC Bank at the beginning of the year (836 INR whereabouts) - super timing with the stake sale and still promoters hold 68% (I like it).
Fair amount of re-rating is YET to come given the very high ROCE, Free Cash Flow, dividend yield, opportunity to grow within a slow growing industry (things would change I believe once publishing becomes easier with digitisation). I do believe that publishing industry is at cross roads. DIGITISATION is the way to go and the vendors will immensely benefit due to this. MPS is on the right side of it.
The risk reward ratio at the current price seems skewed towards reward disproportionately and is one of the major reasons for me getting into this stock.
We are at initial stages of this story and if organic growth even if it comes to 10-15% secularly and inorganic growth comes through 1 or more high ROCE and 1.x times sales, we are headed for stars. When this thread was started the story was in its Infancy.
Ethical promoters, excellent education background, entrepreneur family (Vandana Luthra of VLCC is Nisihth's sister).
Risk here - Improper utilisation of raised capital, key client risks.
MPS looks like "Hawkins characteristics PLUS growth oriented promoters PLUS mini Piramals". An explosive combination to have.
As stated earlier, I'm invested, so my positive rant could be due to this bias. So, do your own due diligence before any action on this stock and this is not an investment advice.
Motherson sumi : Recent opportunity to buy (28-09-2015)
@NikhilJain , Yes Motherson , has evidence of change in trend ( FROM BULL TO BEAR ) both in daily and monthly charts . so we can see short covering rallies . as an opportunity exit or sell .
Building of a Fresh Portfolio (28-09-2015)
This year the monsoons have been poor, and the weather has been very hot
If the hot weather continues through the year - then sales of cooling solutions could go up.
Disc. Invested in Symphony. This is not a recommendation - please do your own research.
VLS Finance limited (511333) (28-09-2015)
what outcome come at AGM pls share.
Mastek Demerger – Special Situation (28-09-2015)
Have sold all my mastek shares and most of majesco shares to make remaining majesco shares foc. Will hold on to the foc shares for some time.
8k Miles Software Ltd, Cloud Computing (28-09-2015)
Promoter appears to have reduced his stake: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/little-known-it-stocks-go-sky-high-but-promoter-stakes-drop/articleshow/49102644.cms
Any thoughts on this?
Spoke to a CTO/CIO in a listed pharma company, he felt that their service would be of interest to even non-US pharma companies as it may allow for management of compliance, proprietary data, etc. However, although he was on SAP, he did not seem eager to transfer to cloud in a hurry. Conclusion: for him the product was a 'vitamin' and not a 'painkiller'. However this needs further validation with other companies.
Also, need to understand what proportion of their revenues arise as a result of being an Amazon Platinum vendor and what % from Microsoft and others. What is the likelihood of Amazon providing the same services to end users in house and making 8k/others redundant? Who are the other approved vendors of these cloud providers?
As far as management goes, appears to be a technocrat & serial entrepreneur with a track record of building and selling several IT businesses.
Disclosure: invested at lower levels
P. I. Industries Ltd. – A Unique Business Model can make it a Great Play on Agri & CSM Space (28-09-2015)
@hitesh2710 - The overall crash of agri commodity prices around the world will definitely affect agro-chemical producers like Bayer Cropscience, Syngenta and others who outsource their production to PI. I do not think we can take the growth in CSM business for granted. We have to keep it under watch for signs of weakness.
Building of a Fresh Portfolio (28-09-2015)
Hi everyone,
Hope you all are doing great.
I am planning to enter markets with my partnership firm. In this regard, I have identified few investment opportunities. I would like if you all could provide your views on the same.
Below is the list of identified businesses which according to me are good for 5-6 years time frame.
1. Piramal Enterprises
2. Vaibhav Global
3. Mayur Uniquoters
4. Atul Auto
5. Accelya Kale Solutions
6. Ambika Cotton
7. Ashiana Housing
8. Oriental Carbon
9. PTC India Financials
10. Shriram Transport Finance
11. Thomas Cook
12. Symphony
13. Relaxo Footwears
14. Cupid Ltd.
However, according to me, most of them currently trade at fair / expensive valuations. I am briefing my current views on each of them.
I plan to invest a total of 80% of my investible money. Of this 80%, I am looking at investing in 8-10 companies. 20% to stay in cash for any opportunities, which may arise.
Piramal Enterprises - Betting on Mr. Ajay Piramal. Looks like a steady 18-22% investment for 5-6 years. Plan to invest now with 8-10% allocation.
Vaibhav Global - Good economics - Cash generative business - Nice ROCE - Growth visibility - Looks cheap (if growth picks in the H2 of FY 2015-16). Plan to invest now with 8-10% allocation.
Mayur Uniquoters - Proven business - Steady earnings outlook with revenue visibility (auto, footwear, furnishing) - However, looks appropriately valued. Plan to invest 50% of planned allocation of 8-10%
Atul Auto - Proven record - Steady earnings outlook with revenue visibility (export of petrol vehicle) - However, looks appropriately valued/ overvalued.
Accelya Kale Solutions - Good business - ROCE - Cash generative - Dividend Yield - Dividend payment history - Operating leverage play. However, I am not able to foresee any major growth in revenues. Until then, no planned allocation. Wait n watch.
Ambika Cotton - Decent business history - Cash generative. However, looks appropriately valued. No plans to put in money until it is available at deep discount as I am a bit skeptical regarding the 'textile' industry's economics.
Ashiana Housing - Great business model - Cash generative - Great past record. Real estate slow down may hurt the company and the stock bad. I find no MOS at the current price. Hence, no allocation as of now.
Oriental Carbon & Chemicals - Good business economics - good past record - Revenue visibility. However, currently operating at 95-98% capacity. Next capacity expansion to kick in from 2017. Hence, I think this will be available cheap in the near future (1-1.5 years) as revenues / profits gets flat / negligible growth. No allocation as of now, but keeping a close watch.
PTC India Financials - Good past track record (though on low base) - good ratios - Seems to be a little less than appropriately valued - Plan to invest 50-70% of planned investment of 10% allocation.
Shriram Transport Finance - Great business economics - Management - currently hit with slowdown due to auto slowdown, coal mining stoppage - NPA issue. Keeping a close watch on NPAs in coming quarters. Will invest if available at 1.5 P/BV or less. 10% allocation.
Thomas Cook - Decent cash generative travel business - Management - Quess Corp to bring in growth in revenues and profits. However, finding it difficult to make projections and hence valuation. No planned allocation.
Symphony - Great business model - Great Ratios - Revenue visibility for 5-6 years at least. However, very very pricey!! Keeping a watch on quarter earnings. Might be available cheap due to bad quarter. No planned allocation.
Relaxo Footwears - Great business - Great Ratios - Products will never go obsolete - Revenue visibility for xx years. However, very very pricey!! No planned allocation.
Cupid - Revenue visibility - good numbers - However, looks appropriately valued. No planned allocation.
Hence, as of now, I plan to invest in Piramal Enterprises, Vaibhav Global & PTC India Financials as mentioned above.
Would be great if you all share your views on the companies and investment plan as mentioned above. I am also open to look into other companies.
What I generally look for in a business -
a. Past track record
b. Growing revenues and profits
c. Growing / steady margins and improving ratios
d. Cash generative
e. Some uniqueness towards its products/services or business model (finding moats).
f. Management (Have shunned Amar Raja, Kitex, Pokarna, etc due to this)
g. Less / Nil Regulated businesses.
Apologies for the long post. Thanks in advance for the contribution.