Syngene has to be looked at from multi-year perspective and not 2-3 years because even at this scale it is just at a nascent stage relative to its opportunity landscape…….financial parameters like eps, etc., could be variable depending on strategy it adopts but visibility of sustaining at least 20% pa top line growth with 30% + EBITDA margins along with maintaining historical EBITDA to ocf conversion rate is quite high…..
Rgds.
Hi Anil,
Still don’t see the xmind format, only see the pdf. Can you recheck please.
Regards
Raja
Thanks that’s quite helpful.
Highlights and concerns:
View: Strong visibility, but concerns around customer concentration. It is understood that Kerry wants Lactose to set up additional capacities for lactose. Management is currently focussing on Lactulose, which will enable them to reduce concentration on Kerry.
Second division: Pharma (Formulation) – Does contract manufacturing for players like Sanofi. These products are premium products where 80% products are export and 20% used locally.
o Oectan (100% manufactured by Lactose) – Sanofi has shut down their operations in Turkey and now they source from Lactose India. Oectan is INR 100crores for Sanofi with INR 40crores or profit.
o Though there is concentration risk, but it is less likely that Sanofi will cut short its contract with Lactose to the the approval process / formalities for assigning new capacities for manufacturing
Lactulose – Claims to be the largest in India post commissioning of new plant
o Raw material is Lactose, so in-house lactose acts as supply for Lactulose plant
o Expect to clock INR 60- 70 crores of turnover in next 2 years
View: Company has incurred capex through creditor funding / long term loan. equity requirement was brought in by sponsors.
Queries:
1. Management’s ability to market new product – Lactulose; this is different as compared to its tradiitonal client driven product segments including lactose and formulations.
Disclosure – hold small quanitites
you can download Tasty bites mindmap as example from here
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6iki04rcye2b0gy/Tasty%20Bite%20Mind%20map.pdf?dl=0
and xmind format from here
Superb sunil..I subscribed to this long time ago. I thought this was provided by bse :-)..
Many Thanks
Hi,
I have only 1.5 years of market experience and i’m learning day by day:
My mistakes:
1: Biggest mistake, i bought my first stock when it was hitting everyday low and low and accumulating more in loss.
Era infra: first bought 400@40 and keep on adding in down, currently i have 3000@18(Average price).
currently holding it in the hope that atleast i can get atleast theinvested money back, i dont know i’m right or wrong in this case of holding this loss making stock.
I bought this stock without any analysis, just it was on 52 week low so i bought it and then on tv CNBC they were saying to buy so bought more and then to make the average price, i added more.
After this i got one chance to get it out when the stock came back to 33 but with the greed i didnt sell and the result is it is 85% loss now,
still holding, not daring to book the loss.
Mistake learned:
1: Dont follow tv and media or any recommendation or friend recommendation.
2: dont by 52 week low stocks, just because they are 52 week low
3: if a stock is going down and the fundamental is also not good then dont average your price, sell the stock and book loss and come out of it.
4: Do a thorough analysis, still i’m not able for this but trying to learn.
5: Earlier buying stocks on low pe and high EPS only, dont do it.
6: Dont follow the price fluctuation day by day, do th stock check on weekly basis.
7: dont have more then 10-15 stocks in your portfolio.
8: money allocation to all your stock should be followed..still i’m not doing it and need to learn.
9: have patience: before i was buying and selling frequently , net i’m in loss
10: Better to follow SIP for good stocks.
11: always have some case, when market corrects buy good stocks more and hold.
12: Don’t be greedy and don’t afraid.
Many mistakes committed and learning is in progress.
Read Good books and learn and learn from all the seniors and from others mistakes.
Thanks
Mahesh
Ted is a defunct forum now, earlier it was used to be very active stock discussion forum.
Though there is a risk of Chettinad cutting supply to Pokarna but I see risk and reward hugely in favor of investing in Pokarna. I will increase my stake tomorrow. The only thing now left is the cleansing of Balance Sheet, which is messed up due to related party transactions and their cloth business (atleast this was the case when I checked last time).
Caserstone is a big fish and it seems they are in trouble. That means better scope for and chance to penerate into B2C model.
no wonder why Ashish Kacholia has increased the stake in Sep Q as well.