Hi Abhishek,
Point noted regarding Bel, mindtree and bata. And I would keep that risk in mind while evaluating Bel in the future.
On a lighter note, I’ll be overjoyed with a near 20% cagr for the next 10y. 
That’s equivalent to my best mutual fund!
Regards,
S
Ajay Piramal is shrewd businessman who knows how to buy out-of-fashion business cheaply and how to sell them high after turning them around. He has done that with pharmaceuticals and now he is trying his hand at Financials.
Due to his interests in pharma, financials and IT, analysts have always struggled to value his company. Since research firms have analysts dedicated to one area, they need to put 3 analysts to track Piramal Enterprise. 
. Also you would not see AP or his deputies coming on air and explaining their numbers or proving guidance on future plans. Hence IMHO Piramal would never be a stock market darling.
I came across interesting article in Mint on AP’s and hence felt like sharing with fellow Valuepickr’s
Disc – invested for last one year so my views could be biased
Interesting concept. Building a portfolio for the next 50 years. I don’t think I can think of a good way of doing it. One way to approach would be to look at history and see what has remained constant over the last 50 years. But so much has changed in the last 50 years that it is going to become a very academic exercise. Also, unless you have a family trust which you want to perpetuate, there is very little point in trying to do a 50-year exercise.
Coming to the stocks you have, they are all “good”. Will they be all multibaggers? I am not so sure. 10 years down the line will you make money on these? Most likely. Will it be more than say 20% CAGR? May not be.
I don’t follow most of the stocks closely, and know only about MindTree, Bata & BEL. MindTree has no competitive advantage over its peers. Bata has a good brand so will likely do well. Trick is getting in at the right price. BEL has technical advantages now. Over time, that will go away, as the L&Ts, Tatas, M&Ms & Reliances of the world get into the fray (along with the global majors). So, BEL is a toss-up between going the HMT way or the ONGC / SBI way. Needs to be carefully monitored.
Britannia is great story of what good management can do to a relatively mediocre company. Till 2012-13, this company and its stock was considered average. Promoters (Nusli Wadia from Bomaby Dyeing) were more busy in fighting their JV partner Danone and company was lacking focus in the market. It was “also ran” company in the area dominated by ITC, Nestle, Parle etc. Varun Berry’s (ex Pesico, Unilever) arrival on the scene changed things a lot. He started de-cluttering the product portfolio and brought in concept of “Power Brands” which increased focus on key brands. They strengthened supply chain, appointed more dealers, added more points of sale and used operating leverage of the company. Their operating leverage (read – better asset utilization) is the reason they are able to generate higher profit growth.
Going forward, it would be interesting to see how much more market share they can gain as competition is getting fierce and operating leverage gains would have limited upside. Further growth would come from capex which could put bit of pressure on bottom line in the short run.
Disc : invested so my views could be biased.
Not an Expert Chartist.. but Stock has stayed in range of 1520 – 1620 for past few days which is very much unlike to movement this stock shows.. Might break the upper range if there are some positive news flows
Hi Vivek,
Point noted. Esp reg the risk of acquiring other PSU debt-laden companies.
W.r.t NMDC / PSU’s, I am hopeful the management quality will improve in the next few years. (gathered from the news)
1. This govt will increase management quality (selection transparency, better renumeration etc.)
2. More disinvestment.
3. Non interference. (like e.g in Axis bank.)
Regards,
S
I don’t have much of view on this sector as I don’t track it. But it would be interesting to see which company has a head start in the MDF business and how much would it contribute to sales going forward. I think Greenply might have a head start. Not sure but maybe MDF business has better margins and hence company with better and increasing contribution towards MDF business might have an additional plus point. Also, I think that Greenply is looking to outource the Plywood and laminates manufacturing, which again might have a positive impact and make the business a bit asset light and reduce working capital cycle and enhance return ratios further.
Note: I am an amateur investor and I am stating the above as only one of the few factors that should be considered. As I don’t track this sector and hence one should verify the above statements in detail.
With all due respect, it will be more helpful for other members if the reasons for avoiding it are specifically quoted rather then stating that friends adviced to avoid it.
Just in the spirit of constructive discussion and adding value
Regards.
Sure Nikhil. Appreciate your view. For me too it is an opportunistic bet. Its just that say for e.g. if NCL would have been trading at EV/tonne of say 100-120$ and EV/Ebitda of say may be 8-9 then despite good earnings visibility there might not be much scope of appreciation and less valuation comfort.
But I do get your point and either ways there is some money to be made here
Regards.
I think you should also consider corporate governance issues in these firms. People have burnt their hands in the past, hence they avoid these kind of companies.