Despite of this news stock up. This is how strange the markets are.
Disc: Invested, willing to hold for long time
Posts tagged Value Pickr
V2 Retail – Second innings playing out well (13-10-2015)
Despite of this news stock up. This is how strange the markets are.
Disc: Invested, willing to hold for long time
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (13-10-2015)
Equity of dwarikesh is 47 cr and price 51. Why M Cap is 78 cr. Every dight is showing same MCap. It should be around 200 cr. Can anyone explain please
Granules India Ltd (13-10-2015)
FY16 EPS is only going to 6 (best case estimates factoring in the recent Ibuforen numbers). At 30PE upside is capped at 180. It’s already run-up too fast to 160 odd levels. There is going to be a lot of time now for the stock to consolidate and FII’s to nibble into slowly. Also gives us the opportunity to add more…
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (13-10-2015)
Ok, technically, Balrampur chini is close to a very important level, any sustained close above 70 is very positive as per the attached chart.
For sectors like this, it is best to go with the leader. Period. I wont be buying anything here, but the chart on a break out looks interesting. I know the promoters of Parrys (of Murugappa group). Very very ethical group, however, not sure how this sugar company of theirs stand. If the business looks good, then promoters integrity may not be questionable.
The below is the 8 year daily chart of Balrampur Chini – With long cyclicals, better to look at very long term charts – broader picture is very important, no myopic vision helps here.
Disclaimer: I’m tired of putting this after every post, there should be some blanket disclaimer 
I’m NOT a technical analyst NOT a fundamental analyst, NOT a financial advisor. Do your own due diligence. I will put posts that come straight from my heart, no double intentions.
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (13-10-2015)
Linking to my other post instead of double posting:
My richdreamz portfolio – visit my portfolio to learn together! (13-10-2015)
I was looking for “Alpha” when I bought into Cupid stock, looks like the stock wanted to give me “Infinity” instead, on a lighter note.
The stock is locked in upper circuit as I write this, obviously I’m delighted, but I did not find any news yet on the stock exchange for this uptick though.
Arvind infrastructure: Godrej Properties in the making? (13-10-2015)
Hi Aniket,
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U are right that out of 1.5cr, 1cr is yet to start. I guess thats why the total cashflows and profits are calculated over next 4-5 years. Their second largest project has revenue of 600cr and its a plotted development project, so there is hardly any construction cost to it. Company just have to build necessary infrastructure in and around the land parcel and sell the plots. So construction cost in such projects are between 25-30% of the total revenue. Arvind is 45% partner in tht project so total revenue of tht project should be about 1300cr (including the land owners share) and cost of say maximum 30% so say about 400cr, hence their profitability in tht project alone should be about 200cr over the period of time.
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Their largest project Uplands has a revenue potential of 1200cr, out of which in prelaunch they sold 200cr of stock which was way more than their full years target. So although the real estate market is slow, they seem to be selling good. Also its a golf theme based project which is the only golf theme project in one of the fastest growing city of Ahmedabad. So sales shouldnt be a challenge, which they have demonstrated as well.
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Promoters are Arvind limited, Sanjay Lalbhai group. They are supposed to be one of the very well respected and largest group in Denim in India. They have Mr. Vallabh Bhansali from Enam and Mr. Bakul Dholakia (Ex-Director IIM Ahmedabad) on their board of the parent company Arvind Limited.
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Also in my humble opinion, the market value of the company is present value of all future cashflows and not only future cashflows of next 4-5 years. The assumption by abhijit, I think doesnt include the reinvestment of the profits/paying back to shareholders by the company and hence provide a much larger and safe opportunity to invest.
Discl – Invested at about 75.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (13-10-2015)
Great work Karan
No opinion on your opinion, but very happy to see that someone did the boring work of reading the annual reports and judging the mills situation based on facts
As somebody who actually invested (heavily) in sugar and made a crazy return over the last month, I can tell you the factor you put forward was the one least paid attention to
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (13-10-2015)
I read quite a few annual reports of sugar companies and one trend that was similar was the shutdown of mills for crushing this season. Most of the mills will not be crushing sugarcane this season which should lead to a lower output next year which i think is being discounted in the prices of companies. However this sector being completely riddled with politicians don’t understand how long such a situation is feasible. The conundrum is that even with higher SAP’s & FRP’s neither the farmer or mill owner is happy. So it becomes difficult to take a bet on this.