hi ..TUR (pigeon pea) rates were @ 2100/-q two year back because of low rate farmers were forced to switch to other crops.now rates are 12000/-q .so the cycle changes very fast were is crude oil now .
this year or next year sugar cycle will turn if not this year then it will be sharp drop in stocks prizes and after turn of cycle sharp recovery to…but when it will drop there may be more shree renuka”s same mill will be shut for ever.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (11-10-2015)
GRUH Finance – mini HDFC (11-10-2015)
Hi Hitesh,
NHB to launch over 80 new housing finance companies
Do you think this will be threat to the current HFC’s like Gruh, Repco?
Neo Corp-Growth Machine in Technical Textiles(CAGR 45%)! (11-10-2015)
@hafizul88
hi, thanks for your explanation.
i haven’t done any research on this. you know better since you have gone thru the details.
will wait for some debt reduction or improvement in Debt / sales ratio.
High dividend yield stocks (11-10-2015)
Yes, you are right. It doesnt fit perfectly in the high yield stock category. It was a nice opportunistic bet for me though.
Avanti Feeds (11-10-2015)
Please refrain from giving directives to others.
You can only disclose if you are holding, buying or selling.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (11-10-2015)
@Chintan
i agree. the linkage of cane prices to sugar will be a clear positive , will bring stability and predictability to the business.
The sugar companies have been demanding same for long and the govt knows about this but at the end of the day its a political decision. Lets see.
Avanti Feeds (11-10-2015)
Please refrain from making such sweeping comments. Avanti thread has been full of such news pieces and comments and yet the stock is a ten+ bagger.
Look at the data of US imports posted above where india share of shrimp imports has gone up alot. IMO we should wait for company results.
Cafe Coffee Day – Will you Date? (11-10-2015)
I hold the Cafe Coffee Day brand highly. CCD and Amul are 2 brands that I always thought I would have invested in, if they ever get listed. So CCD IPO prospectus was the first one that I ever read completely (almost!). It was a huge document and to be honest, I came out of it feeling extremely negative. (Subsequently, went through Nuziveedu prospectus and felt equally negative. May be reading them is just not my thing!)
IMO a lot of it could be to do with their drive to have a huge number of stores. Apparently, the only ones to have more numbers than CCD are the army canteen stores. I remember at Bellandur in Bangalore – a place in the outskirts of Bangalore but right in middle of the IT clusters) there were about 5-6 CCD stores of different categories within less than a kilometre range! While at times, CCD’s on the highways have been a life-saver and a regular stopover otherwise, it surely can do better by having a conservative site selection policy. I think the VGS’s dream of being among the top 3 retailers in the world – it is in top 6 by number of stores – could be pushing them towards higher numbers rather than focus on profitability. They have been regularly closing down 3-4% of their stores and far higher (12%) this year. So they are closing unviable stores but wasting capital and management focus. “It’s mainly about finding the right location in restaurant business” as per all of those whom I know in this business! And I know a fair amount of them due the place where I come from! 
It’s one of the toughest part and so we could give CCD some leeway to get their act right in this matter.
Breaking down different aspects of the business:
From various sources, mainly the company prospectus.
As per VGS in below interview, he is fine with shifting his investments in various businesses to fund his main focus, the coffee company:
http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/investors-should-view-us-as-a-coffee-company-only-v-g-siddhartha-115100700049_1.html
To know more about VGS, go through this old article:
Once you are done reading it, take a pause and then go through the comments. Both are important for the sake of “informed decision making”!
I feel that once they are done with their expansion spree, they may be able to get hold of their debt. Even though my gut feeling says they will do extremely well, I’ve got to admit that I am now circumspect as to when exactly I should be investing here!
Note:
Like a normal South Indian, my taste buds are fixated on the regular filter kaapi. And like many, I try to find that same taste in cafe coffee and fail. Initially I used to think that there was something wrong in these cafes. Then realised that my taste buds are biased and it isn’t fair to compare them! 
Interesting articles:
Neo Corp-Growth Machine in Technical Textiles(CAGR 45%)! (10-10-2015)
Hello @manishinlucknow : Forgot to mention about promoter issues——-I said it is not so good that does not mean they are bad/very bad. Actually the books are clean(as the biggest IT dept officers did not get any issues in the books during the inspection in the latest IT raids—-so actually the raid has indirectly helped retails/small investors to know that the books are okay , otherwise IT dept could have lodged case in High Court if they have got any major issue in company’s books)——so the promoters are not fraud for sure and no major/proved crime/money laundering etc….but then also I said not so good as I did not get reply of my email which I sent to them(however this is not the only company from where I did not get reply, some good management also did not reply of emails) and they do not share their future growth plan(we are getting to know the 45% CAGR growth from result, but good companies give future earning estimate way before and shares the rough estimates, plans etc….which itself gives strength to the stock even before reporting the actual results—-that’s how market works, market discounts the future growth potential way before that happens actually)—but as Neo managements are not doing that, the stock does not get strength and investors are not clear about the future growth potentials—————-and also I don’t like their process of paying dividend via cheques in today NEFT era—these the reasons why I did say they are not good——–not sure if promoters are doing it deliberately to keep price low and buying time to save money to buy the shares at low price——seeing the growth and books clean, every promoter will try to add more———-actually the Trivedi family has increased the stake in the company by about 3 % but then that they have bought from other small promoter group entity that’s why no change in total promoter holding——-so this is also a positive that the founder Trivedi family has increased the stake and Son of MD Sunil Trivedi is also a director in the board , so successor plan is there and their son will takeover from father sometime in future————so the bottom line is lets keep tracking this company and if debt are reduced, profitability improves, growth continues, promoter increases stake then we will get more confidence in the company——waiting for the SHP of Q2, hopefully we will see some positives(if not promoters then VLS finance must be increasing their holding)—–
Neo Corp-Growth Machine in Technical Textiles(CAGR 45%)! (10-10-2015)
Hello @roysavio: As EPS has increased even after the number of shares gone up by equity dilution then that’s good right(company earned more net profit as it is divided by more no. of shares outstanding)—anyway, equity dilution is not good actually but as we know the textiles sectors is very capital intensive sectors, many companies have high equity and also debt is more compared to other sectors like Pharma/Auto.
In past competition from China was huge in this sector as they had cheaper labor than India but as we know the labor cost has gone up in China and that is one of the reason China’s product price has gone up and India is getting advantage—–this is sector is set to do well specially the packaging area where our Neo has great innovative solution in Geotech, Packtech etc….this is a big proxy for India’s growth story and these products are eco friendly and well accepted by players worldwide.
Discussed regarding sales growth and debt growth rate in above post, please have a look.