Hi Milind, AGM was attended by me.
AGM was presided by Vishal Gupta.
He was really concerned about the current real estate situation. They are working in 6 cities now, out of which they are really strong in 3 cities. The remaining 3 they will strengthen depending upon the response of their initial project. The internal relation between the brothers is really very strong. QIP money will be utilised as and when they find the opportunities. He refused to give any growth guidance.
Let me tell you a true story.
I wanted to get my house painted. Big house. 4500 sq feet. 250000 worth of paint.
I called Dulux first. no response.
I called their call center. They said someone will contact me. No one did.
I left an email. no revert.
I called Asian Paints once, and they did everything from that point on.
I was holding Akzo...sold all my holdings.
If you think this team will make you money, forget it.
Dear Niku
Sorry for missing your post earlier.
Any luck with meeting the Management?When is the AGM as it seems management will open their mouth in AGM only.
You can ask on why are receivables and inventory on the higher side?Why is cash flow negative?What has been the impact of recent strictness n banning of Maggi noodles by FSSAI?How are they faring against competition? Why was CFO sacked recently?Any more chances of warrant allotments to promoters or is the chapter finally over?How big is the opp size n whats the moat of the co?Any plans of expansion? was the Nalagarh plant taken on lease n will it be closed down n production shifted to the new Assam plant as the tax benefits are over?
In the recent carnage it was heartening to see that CP stood firm ...any instl entry here?can this Maruti turn into Mercedez ?we need to find out.Thanks
Dont be confused mates. The situation is simple for ADI Finechem.
Their competitive advantage comes when crude oil prices are high as they make their product from edible oil waste while their competition makes the same product from crude.
So now when Crude is at multi year lows and has fallen from $100+ (this was when ADI was flying due to competitive advantage) to $40-$44 range...its has completely killed their product competitiveness internationally.
Tough days ahead for ADI...because with China's slowdown, Iran sanctions lifted, US Shale boom.....looks like Crude will be in 30-50 range for sometime.
Question is whether ADI can sustain this low crude environment. It will become interesting if the stock price goes to 100-150 odd and if Crude can rise to 75-85 range.
Cheers
Neil Bahal
I am hearing that China has shut down a lot of chemical companies to clamp down on pollution. Any views on Dynemic at 48?
Also looks like the promoter picked up a small quantity of 2000 shares today from open market. Meaningless but still something.
**The only questions are whether the capex is on track and if the company will manage to increase EPS above 9 in FY16? and will cash flows be positive?
Everything is good....but the company has no cash flow from operating activities which I find very 'putting off'. How can we invest if there is no cash flow from operations?
They are taking debt to fund everything.
Did anyone attend the AGM guys? Any updates?
The stock is holding up superbly in this volatile period. Some AGM notes would come in handy.
Check the latest AR. He's not in the top 10 investors. (And now the list includes anyone below 1% holding too). He could be holding a tiny part. That we would not get to know of course.
First of all apologies it was not 44 million but 44 cr.I tried finding cash flow from data which are shared in Q4 report. This was before annual report came out . Actual FCF for 2015 was 32 Cr and if you take last three avg FCF it comes out to be 39 cr.
with these Value per share comes (11% growth in FCF) out to be 1167 and with 50 % margin of safety -583
DCF is dangerous and very hard tool to value company .....you need to make assumptions and when there are regular capex it becomes more hard so only way out is averaging and using long term historical growth avgs. Ambika is more of consistent player so you can probably do this.
Hi Rudra,
Price erosion is always a very debatable topic and except for the pharma companies, I doubt anyone else knows about it accurately (it's an area where we should work on).
If you go through the article, it says 'Currently there is a limited competition for the product and the company can conservatively garner sales of US $50-60 million in sales for the 50 mg capsules' (would rather ignore what the journalists are writing and give more weightage to the analysts). The analyst is talking about 50 mg capsule while it is also availabe in 100 mg, 200 mg and 400 mg (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.Generics&Mkt=1). I still dont know how to interpret it.
You will always find reports on negative reports on generics (may be propagated by the innovators themselves). Not exactly sure how serious they are about gCelebrex.