Thanks Mahesh, will do the same and hope it helps
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Syngene International IPO – Views invited (14-09-2015)
Post stabilisation and successful venturing into commercial manufacturing, Syngene will be the only listed company in India having exclusive focus on NMEs and catering to the entire lifecycle of an NME….Since PI (CSM) & Divis operate with a similar model but lakc the presence in entire lifecycle, it is my personal expectation that Syngene should trade at premium to both the said companies. I can be wrong in my assessment.
Syngene is not a full fledged pharma company but is like a service-oriented company catering to pharmaceutical sector apart from others. To understand the segment in which Syngene is operating in, apart from company’s own past ARs as well as RHP, you can refer to past ARs of its Indian peers like GVK as also presentations, ARs and brokerage reports of its international peers like Wuxi.
Once any company’s management falters in walking the talk, I stop actively tracking the company as management quality and conduct is the highest weightage I put during my investment decision.
How to derive ROE using Dupont analysis (14-09-2015)
A company can increase ROE by increasing its debt. On one of the blogs I read dupont analysis is best while calculating ROE. Can someone explain by giving a actual example of any company [ may be Motherson Sumi whose Debt to Equity is 1.55
Thanks in advance
Sunny
GRUH Finance – mini HDFC (14-09-2015)
From what I have been observing about the urban markets in Gujarat and Mrashtra – Gnagar, Ahmedabad, Pune and Mumbai, it seems that investments in RE have slowed down considerably.While the target segment of Gruh is completely different, there is bound to be a trickle down effect and it would be interesting to see how the loan book grows in the coming quarters.
This is the best time for Gruh to expand (hopefully proactively, not olnly through referrals) and as the MOSL report says, UP is the place to be. Though they have a grand total of 1 branch in UP as of yet.
Disclosure: Invested, hoping for further consolidation before adding more.
Towards a Capital Allocation Framework! (14-09-2015)
agree . v few investors i know have put over 10% of their total nw in equities.I have no investment other than in equities ( other than primary house) even FDs or insurance.I also believe in concentrated bets .However its not as easy as it may sound – I will not advise this for many other investors.I think the key is that when you bet in such a concentrated manner ( 100% of one’s networth in equities that too in a few stocks say 4 or 5 ) one must track the co intimately and be willing to exit at signs of trouble .Else this approach can be self destructing.
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (14-09-2015)
I have been a regular reader of highly informative posts on Cupid. I would like to thank all members esp Rajeevji for contributing & keeping everyone updated. I am an investor in Cupid & Cupid is a sizable portion of my portfolio (offcourse not as big as Rajeevji 
) … in recent past I had visited the company to meet Mr Garg and I would like to share my impression with you all. He lived a comfortable life in US and is a self made human being having tried his hands in many businesses. Also all must be aware that he has some vision & hearing troubles. To leave all comforts in US & after being independently wealthy and coming to sit in some MIDC in India requires high level of motivation. I felt he is the perfect guy whom u should trust ur money with. He is highly conservative in business & will not resort to debts & will only invest in businesses like sanitary napkins etc only when he sees a profit. He also likes to travel a lot and is very philosophical about life.
Regarding the fundamentals of the company you all know much more than me.. They r very sound, debt free, good margins etc. INR fall & Rubber fall should result in increase in margins- thats my understanding. Also they are addressing a huge global problem & they r the lowest cost producers. So whenever there is additional demand company is very well placed to capitalise on it. All current fundamentals r well known to the market but as George Soros says “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”… many new unexpected positive developments can happen in Cupid. Also thr annual report states that they expect large orders to come. Any new order of a good size will only to lead to re-enforcing a very strong stock trend. Again company is addressing such a large global problem & I find 220 crs market cap quite low to be honest..
Forensics and the art of triangulation (14-09-2015)
There is no one single silver bullet answer. The best way to find out is to compare it against peers and check for oneself as to how reasonable the numbers are.
I am attaching a link to glaucus which has a short thesis on rolta
https://glaucusresearch.com/
Some of the most common sensical things that one looks for are
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materially large items in BS or PL that make a big impact. For eg., say cash in satyam’s case that was a big chunk of the overall BS or huge capital expenditure. triangulate this with things like “other income” or ‘cash flows from operations”.
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in case of over invoicing, check the receivables as a % of revenues and see if they are increasing or decreasing and their impact on cash flow from operations.
- check RM/labour cost as a % of sales for the company and other competitors in the industry. if significantly different, it’s something to dig into.
The most important thing is to induct – keep progressing from one point to another using common sense and inference. For eg., disproportionately high receivables – >lower operating cash flows – > higher WC – >check impact on actual cash taxes paid – > if low, investigate further and clarify.
others can add in as we go along.
Vivek Gautam Portfolio (14-09-2015)
Vivek Gautam, XIRR would be the best indicator of portfolio performance. XIRR takes into account the timing of your trades also and annualizes the return automatically.More recent trades would have less impact on the XIRR number.
Your buy and sell trades will be a series of positive and negative cashflows respectively. At the end of the period (say, year, month, quarter etc.), you would assume that you sell the entire portfolio (negative entry) at the then market price. On the next day you assume that you buy it back at the same price (positive entry) so that you are ready to calculate the XIRR for the subsequent period.
Vivek Gautam Portfolio (14-09-2015)
Vivek:
What is your rationale for exiting Ambika and Gruh?
Is it to do with Ambika in particular or textile stocks in general?
HFC stocks should continue to do well…….is it because you already have Repco so chose to reduce it or you think Gruh is a well discovered stock?
Thanks
Syngene International IPO – Views invited (13-09-2015)
maheshji how isyour old pick jubilant ind at cmp?