Hello all,
Thought I’d share a few nuggets I’d uncovered on KTIL. I just spoke to the company secretary who told me that KMML was basically waiting on two key approvals from the government:
1. ICD – Inland container depot for road logistics
2. PFT – Private Freight Corridor (Railway)

He told me that the work on Phase 1 of KMM was nearing completion and was not yet fully complete. He told me that there has not yet been any intimation from the government regarding the approvals. So that got me thinking and after some googling, I got this link : http://commerce.nic.in/trade/national_tpa.asp

This basically gives links of minutes of the meeting of various ministries for all CFS/ICD proposals (or so I believe). Clicking on one of these links, I got to this page: http://commerce.nic.in/trade/ICD_list.pdf

This page is titled “List of ICDs/CFSs approved by IMC (inter-ministerial committee) which are under implementation or functional” gives the status of all ICD/CFS projects. In this page I found two links lines pertaining to Kesar:

1. Kesar Terminal and Infrastructure: Pipavav CFS – I.U.
2. Kesar Multimodal Logistics: Powarkheda ICD – I.U.

I.U. means under implementation. From what I could surmise, the ministries have these projects on their approval list. I’m sure certain other approvals are still pending for these projects (PFT, etc) else there would have sure been some sort of notification by the company but I guess it does provide some comfort as to the veracity of the projects and their nearness to completion. I am unable to comment any more on this but thought I’d share and invite some discussion nonetheless.

Disc: Invested

Mahesh, as usual your research is super.

I think Syngene being involved right from the starting stages of a molecule i.e., Innovation is what makes market think twice on according high valuations. At least until it sees consistency and sustainability or the impact on revenues will no longer depend on molecule innovation.

Contrast this with other high quality CRAMS Players where the costs of R&D, innovation is the onus of MNCs while the Indian companies happily end up bulk manufacturing them with the cost advantages that Indian companies have.

Not invested in Syngene.

Also, I’m not convinced about Ms. Kiran Mazumdar Shaw’s management ability and who after her will run the show – I have not researched enough though. Please throw more light on this aspect of management capabilities.

Thank you so much.

VQM owns 0.78 % of accelya kale – saw it in AR – built the position during FY 2015. I hold and am bullish too on it

@wpf123

Prashant…..Not only till FY07 but also go beyond till FY02 which you will find attached in Biocon ARs…If you want to go still further then refer IPO prospectus of Biocon filed in 2004 where you will find data till 1999….Its a real treat to study the company :

14 Years’ Average Pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) of 37.35 %….

10 Years’ Average Pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) of 36.50 %….

Post initial low scale (less than 100 cr.) high margin (43 % +) phase, once company went into 30s in EBITDA margins over last 8 years, average pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) is at 33.77 %….

EBITDA’s conversion to Net Cash Generated from Operations has been robust at 14 Years’ average of 79.70 %, 10 Years’ average of 70.78 % and 5 Years’ average at 65.66 %….

Not only that but even EBITDA’s conversion to Free Cash Flows (FCF) is excellent with 5 out of 14 years showing negative FCF with 9 Years’ average positive EBITDA to FCF conversion at 50.72 %

If we go further to look at health of balance sheet over last 14 years, with a Gross Block addition of 920.19 cr., we have a cash surplus of ~106 cr. in the balance sheet.

Now this is the kind of investment opportunities which a long term investor loves to invest….we have a great history in front of us and with the management confident of continuing with this historical parameters of 30 % + margins, promise of low D/E of not more than 0.5 and an investment plan of 1200 cr. over next 3 years —and this too from a management which exhibits great investor friendliness — an example — you have balance sheet published each quarter instead of half yearly requirement…

When I summed up all and looked at the future with just sustenance of 28 % + EBITDA margins, 50 % + EBITDA to OCF conversion, Asset Turn of just 1.1 post stabilisation of CAPEX and derisked business model because of focus on only NMEs, I fail to understand why this stock is still trading at discount to PI Ind. and Divis Lab on EV/EBITDA basis….Over next few quarters I expect majority of shares getting into the hands of pure long term funds and not remaining much with public category as with a free float of only 12.2 % equity capital or 2.44 cr. equity shares, at current market price of 320, only half the amount invested by funds in parent Biocon, can absorb the entire free float of Syngene……study of history of PI Ind as well as Divis Lab is a perfect case study for this as I remember once fund interest picked up, public category shrinked from ~11 % to 7-8 % with a simultaneous rerating in PI ; similarly in Divis, once fund interest picked up, public category shrinked from ~20 % to ~6 % with a simultaneous rerating.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope the anomaly gets corrected soon by Mr. Market.

Rgds.

Discl. – Invested.

Note — This is not a buy/sell/hold recommendation and is just part of a general discussion.

I’m trying to calculate the Sensex Price/Earnings ratio myself.

The Price is obviously available from the live Sensex values, however I can’t find the Earnings number from any source. I want to know if there is any source that provides the Financial Year updated (Quarterly updated would be brilliant ) earnings of the 30 sensex companies.

1) I don’t want to individually go through the Financials of all 30 Sensex companies to add up the earnings (unless ofcourse there is a spreadsheet/tracker readily available which auto-populates data).
2) I know the P/E is available from the BSE website and I can just multiply the numbers, but that doesn’t solve my purpose.

Would greatly appreciate if anyone has information on how to do this.

Many Thanks!

PS: I’m asking this because I can’t seem to rely on people talking about the Sensex earnings. A few days back, in an interview on CNBC with an Ambit Capital analyst, the analyst said Sensex FY 16 earning should be 1550 which gives the Price of 25000 a P/E of 16.
However, BSE shows sensex P/E to be almost 20 currently, so if the analyst is correct that’s discounting Sensex earnings of 20% for the remaining 9 months. Can’t believe that the numbers are correct or the analyst is being stupid projecting earnings growth >20%