latest annual report is available. linke for the same here: http://www.kesarinfra.com/pdf/Kesar%20Terminals%20AR%202015.pdf

few salient features:

management says kesar multimodal logistics is still not operational as some clearances are awaited.

Long term borrowings are now Rs 89 cr. Of this Rs 11 cr for the terminal business and Rs 75.44 cr for the KMML business. The latter is a project loan. “(Rate of Interest is in the range of 11.00 % to 13.25% p.a.{Previous year 10.95% to 13.45% p.a.}) Term Loans are repayable in 16 to 28 quarterly equal installment starting after the moratorium period ranging from two to three years from the date of first disbursement of the respective loans”

from the management discussion and analysis:

“Challenges faced in Bulk Liquid handling at Indian Ports are:Capacity constraints, lack of adequate infrastructure at Ports is a critical challenge faced in liquid bulk handling industry. Liquid bulk capacity utilization at Indian ports stands at 90-95%, much higher compared to international average of 70-75% which is considered to be ideal. This results in higher turnaround times and longer waiting period for berthing leading to port congestion. The major ports across upper west coast (Kandla, Mumbai and JNPT) account for almost 50% of liquid bulk handled at major ports with capacity utilization more than 95%.”

“The Central Government is taking a number of progressive steps which would promote the growth of Indian liquid bulk industry. As a first step, it has deregulated the diesel prices. This would encourage private players to explore downstream distribution creating opportunities for storage providers. Currently, the Company’s 2 Bulk Liquid Chemical Terminals at Kandla, Gujarat operates at a combined capacity of 127,000 Kilo Litres (KL) at with a total of 64 tanks including specialized tanks, such as stainless steel tanks, tanks equipped with heating and insulation facilities and coated tanks which stores speciality products. The Company is awaiting requisite approvals from concerned authorities to add further capacity of 7000 KL at its Terminal 1, Kandla. The Company plans to convert certain Mild Steel (MS) Tanks to Stainless Steel (SS) based upon demand from its customers which shall contribute additional revenues. The Company has converted one MS Tank to MS Heat traced special tank on a specific requirement of a customer”

views invited.

disclosure: holding and views may be considered biased

Thanks for the above message. I have few questions/deductions made based on this and I would request your/member’s view:

1. This warrants will lead to capital infusion to the company of about 35 crores in 4 tranches. Earlier we thought it would be to the tune of 200 crore. Why is this so low now? The remaining amount will come from QIP? So, company would still need to resort to debt/QIP for any acquisitions as there is not much cash on the books and with 500 crore of debt.

2. Equity will be diluted at the end of 18 months or whenever/if the warrants are converted to stocks by about 2% (EPS to be lowered by 2%). Not significant. (4095230/~200000000)*100%

If 4095230 is 25% of the total warrants then my above calculations would have to be multiplied by 4 in which case the above 2 questions may not be relevant.

1. How is this 84.91 arrived at? I do not know the calculation behind it, can any members please enlighten? Prima facie looks to be on the lower side. Is the promoter not confident of business prospects that he did not choose to have the warrant price close to CMP? The warrant price is almost 30% lower than the CMP.

2. Interestingly, the interim dividend declared more or less equal to the 25% of the warrant money that promoter would have shelved now towards the company? Which in effect means, promoter took the money from the company in terms of dividend and ploughed back the same into the company in terms of warrants. Not sure what to make out of this? Any amber flags? So we should expect another round of interim dividend near to warrant conversion.

Please put forward your opinions.

Disc: Not invested.

Granules India Ltd has informed BSE that in connection with issue of warrants on preferential basis to promoters, as informed earlier, a Special Resolution has been passed by Shareholders of the Company at the 24th Annual General Meeting held on August 13, 2015 regarding issue of not exceeding 40,95,230 warrants on a preferential basis to promoter of the Company entitling the allottee of warrants, from time to time to apply for and obtain allotment of one equity share of the face value of Re. 1/- each fully paid up against each of such warrant at such price and on such terms and conditions as may be in accordance with applicable provisions of law including SEBI (Issue of Capital and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2009 as amended thereof. The price has been worked out at Rs. 84.91/- per warrant. In this connection we would like to inform you that after receipt of subscription money being 25% of warrant price in accordance with SEBI (Issue of Capital and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2009, at a meeting of the Share Transfer and Stakeholders Relationship Committee of Board of Directors of the Company held today 40,95,230 warrants have been allotted on preferential basis to Mr. C. Krishna Prasad, Chairman and Managing Director and Promoter of the Company at a price of Rs. 84.91/- per warrant.

Fully paid-up equity shares of the face value of Re. 1/- each of the Company will be allotted on receipt of balance 75% warrant price on each warrant within eighteen months from 28th August, 2015.

As the Company has allotted warrants, there is no change in the Paid up share capital of the Company.

Thanks

And i respect your views.

Let me explain you the concept of operating leverage. If you study the analyst presentations on PVR site their variable costs are around 33 percent of the sales.
The total fixed costs are around 1050 crores per year.
In Q1 the total operating costs were around 402 crores.
Variable operating costs will be 486 crores X 33 percent = 160 crores
So Fixed operating costs will be 242 crores or Rs. 969 crores per year
Add interest costs of 88 crores and total fixed costs this year should be 1057 crores.
Taxation I am assuming nominal costs as most of screens are in tax holiday.

So the break even sales for the year are 1050 / (1-.33) = 1578 crores.
So each rupee of sales above 1578 crores and net margin will increase by 67 paisa.
Now with your assumption of Rs. 1800 crores it means a profit of (1800 – 1578) = 148 crores or a EPS of 35 which matches your prediction.
Now read this:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results-boardroom/bahubali-bajrangi-to-add-muscle-to-q2-earnings-pvr_2090461.html

Check this for box office collections
http://www.koimoi.com/box-office-bollywood-films-of-2015/

In Q1 there was not a single blockbuster hit. There were many good churners and they netted 485 crores.
If you check the box office collections on koimoi in Q2 due to blockbusters like bahubali , bajrangi bhaijan this quarter till August 17 they crossed the entire box office collections they achieved in Q1, If you do a calculations we have one month remaining in q2 and the total box office collections in Q1 is 510 crores while entire q2 is 561 crores. Please remember the 510 crores above does not include the bahubali collections of 100 crore plus in Hindi (and do not forget regional collections as well). Mission impossible collected an additional 50 crores.So with one month remaining in q2 collections are 660 crores (Adding MI5 and bahubali) against q1 collection of 561 crores

So even if the new releases like phantom garner 60 crores in one month we will have total box office collections in q2 equal to 720 crores which is 30 percent rise over q1 which comes to around 630 crores.

Q3 has big releases (Salman khans soorja barjatya film, Bajirao mastani etc). So we wait for the verdict.

It seems that the item has been removed from the blog:

http://personalfinanceupdate.blogspot.in/search?q=pincon

Tuesday, August 19, 2008
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Posted by Amitesh Naryan at 3:40 AM