48x combined portfolio gain means CAGR of 163%, that’s really very good or my mathematics is poor here 
Posts tagged Value Pickr
The Anti-Portfolio (29-08-2024)
Rajesh’s portfolio (29-08-2024)
hello sir ,
is it right time to enter kore digital or i missed the bus!
i am new here on this thread as well in markets.
The Anti-Portfolio (29-08-2024)
@vikas_sinha ji just wanted to check your views on latest developments in Exicom. They recently announced acquisition of Tritium (a big global player in EV charging that declared insolvency in Apr-24) for 300 cr and are now raising 125 cr in debt for the same . I personally find this debt funded strategy for international expansion a bit too agressive given that they just raised funds through IPO? Also, since Indian EV market itself is at a nascent stage, wouldn’t they have been better off focusing on domestic market itself first? Further, I’m a bit worried by their Q1 results, especially the QoQ and Yoy decline in EV segment revenues.
Would love to have your thoughts. I am personally invested in this one, but a bit worried with these recent developments.
Atam Valves Ltd (AVL) (29-08-2024)
The “plant & machinery” is only 2.83 crores as per march 2023 balance sheet ? Where is the disconnect ? Are the factory and foundries leased ?
Kilburn Engineering – Huge undervaluation (29-08-2024)
“So, the promoter group is basically two parts. One part is the promoter group from the Khaitan family, which has been the erstwhile promoters as well. And then we have had a strategic investor who has invested by the name of Firstview Investments. It’s an investment arm of the OCCL group, which is Oriental Carbon group.”
The presence of OCCL / Goenka group augurs well for the company.
Srivari Spices and Foods Limited (29-08-2024)
We were expecting 1:3 dilution and price 100 earlier. Is this better or worse?
Rough calculation
Current price 303.55
Price after 1:5 dilution 243.2
Issue price 175
Discount 39%
Srivari Spices and Foods Limited (29-08-2024)
The company has announced rights issue at the price of Rs. 175 a share, in the ratio of 5:1, i.e. one share for every 5 shares held on record date.
SSFL_29082024163031_Outcome_Board_Meeting_29082024.pdf (1.7 MB)
The company will get around 25 crores from the right issue.
Bharat Rasayan Ltd (29-08-2024)
The Nissan Bharat Rasayan (NBR) JV continues to see uptick in demand from growing products like GRACIA
Nissan Conf Call Transcript: https://www.nissanchem.co.jp/eng/ir_info/library/pdf/AM/am2024_06qa.pdf (Refer Pg 27)
Kopran Ltd. – Has its time finally come?! (29-08-2024)
Kopran ltd ( bullish commentary ) –
Q1 FY 25 concall and results highlights –
Revenues – 139 vs 117 cr
EBITDA – 18 vs 6 cr ( margins @ 13 vs 5 pc )
PAT – 11 vs 3 cr
Segment wise revenues –
APIs – 90 cr vs 73 cr YoY ( Domestic : Export sales @ 44 cr : 46 cr ). Bulk of API sales come from – Carbapenems, Macrolides, Urological Antibiotics and Anti – Hypertensive therapeutic categories
Company has 02 API manufacturing facilities. Company is a major player in sterile Carbapenems and a leader in – Atenolol molecule category
Formulations – 49 cr vs 44 cr YoY ( all exports – to both regulated and unregulated markets ). Ratio of Penicillin : Non Penicillin based formulation sales @ 34 cr : 15 cr
Formulations plant is located @ Khopoli, Maharashtra – making dosage forms like – tablets, capsules, dry powder and suspensions
Q1 is generally a lean Qtr for company’s formulations business. From Q2 onwards, should do a formulations sale of 80-90 cr / Qtr
Have received environmental clearance to commence production at the Panoli plant ( new API facility ) from Central Govt. State Govt’s clearance is awaited shortly
Company is planning to put up a vial filling line for their sterile Penems like – Meropenem, Doripenem, Ertapenem. This will help them improve their margins
Company is guiding for a topline growth of 18-20 pc with an EBITDA of around 100 cr for FY 25 ( LY EBITDA was 74 cr )
In Q1, EBITDA margins in API segment were 14 pc and 11 pc in the formulations segment. As the formulations revenues pick up, their margins should improve because of operating leverage
This FY, company hopes to clock a full year EBITDA margins of 14-15 pc. In 3-4 yrs, the aim is to reach 20 pc EBITDA margins. Also, aim to achieve 1200-1300 cr of topline in 3-4 yrs
The new Panoli plant should start contributing meaningfully to top and bottomline wef FY 26
Over a 2-3 yrs period, the Panoli plant should add 200-300 cr to the topline ( ballpark estimates )
However, for the Panoli plant to get US FDA approval, it ll take a min of 3 yrs from now
All the KSM that the company is making and hopes to makes are for captive consumption ( to improve backward integration ) and should help them reduce their dependence on China
For FY 26, FY 27 – the API segment should grow by > 30 pc CAGR because of operationalisation of the Panoli plant
Formulations should grow @ 10-15 pc CAGR for next 2 yrs
For the Panoli plant, company shall be focusing on CNS, Cardio and Anti-Diabetic ( basically all chronic therapies ) therapies.
Capex guidance for next 3 yrs combined @ 100 cr ( includes the Vial-filling lines for the Penems )
Company’s top selling molecules are Meropenem and Atenolol – contributing to roughly 20 and 15 pc of sales respectively. The next three molecules combined contribute to another 20 pc of sales ( roughly )
Company is the second largest maker of atenolol in the World ( first is IPCA labs ). In Morepenem, company faces competition from Aurobindo, Sun, Hester, Rajasthan Antibiotics. However, they have been the largest producer of Morepenem in India in last 6 months
Teva ( a global – generics giant ) is the largest consumer of Atenolol. They have recently stopped producing this API. Kopran has already supplied validation batches to Teva. Expect, Teva’s entire business to be routed to Kopran over a period of time ( in about 1 yr or so )
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation