Interesting to know that it was about Manappuram. When he posted this video on October 20 it had high P/B but low P/E. The price crashed to about half or two thirds from its highs after that, making it a low P/B and high P/E by November 22.

So with the benefit of hindsight what was market pricing in 2020? I think it was the fluctuating gold prices. The assets were not likely to become NPAs as he said ; but then the fluctuations forced their hands to auction the gold or recall the loans and bring down the loan book.

In addition the barriers were not as strong as it was supposed to be. It was not new entrants but the banks that focused on gold loans much during the period. In a low entry-barrier business low PE and high PB indicates arrival of competition as he said. When the business became high PE and low PB by 2022 the cycle has turned. Banks had better things to focus on and the intensity of the competition probably reduced?

But when I last checked a quarter ago the microfinance in which they have not yet proven themselves seemed to get riskier and I partially exited.

The Senior Citizens Handbook – Bullets
Cognition is the mental process of knowing and includes aspects such as awareness,
perception, understanding, judgement, language understanding, decision-making, etc. In
short understanding mental ability.
As per the above classification, they will achieve happy state of mind by involving in newfound leisure for serving the society. Also by reading religious scriptures and praying to God.
However, old age remains vulnerable to physical mental health. Elders abuse is more
common in rural than in urban areas. Those contended old adults are blessed with a great wealth.

With ageing process they are often looked upon as debilitated, incompetent, and unworthy
of attention. Older adults face psychiatric problem and compounded by stigma attached to
mental illness. Older women are more affected due to gender bias. The impression older
adults give is as retired they lead a life of inactivity.
Physical exercises and engagement in meaningful work are the best insurance for old age.
With age they lose muscles and gain fat. Therefore, a minimal exercise is necessary. Those
who are frail and inactive, yoga and walking are best. Older adults flocking to cinema
theatres and laughing clubs gesture their positive state of mind.
Mental health issues in many older adults are attributed solely to psychosocial causes.
Hypertension and diabetes often go undetected and lead to heart and kidney diseases.
Campaign made to increase awareness of the above two has helped older adults. Diabetes
with decreased peripheral receptor sensitivity is associated with depression and cognitive
impairment, whereas high BP leads to cardiac and kidney problems. In addition cataract,
Parkinson’s disease and dementia affect them.
Near vision is important for many human activities especially that involve higher brain
functions. Regular use of reading glasses helps to keep cognitive abilities intact. Therefore,
all, especially old group, should carry with them always.
With ageing bones become weak (osteoporosis) and there is likelihood of spine, wrist and
hip fractures. Osteoporosis is more in women. Intake of calcium and vitamin D is necessary
to both. Exercises helps make your bones stronger.
To prevent falls room should have enough light, clutter on floors, passages and stairs should
be removed. Multiple lights should be used for better lighting. Loose carpets and worn-out
foot rugs should be removed. Bathroom should have grab handles near the shower, tub and
toilet. Falls in old age is due to decreased muscle strength and reaction time and
coordination. Therefore, regular exercise helps in prevention.
It is known to all that Vitamin D is created in human skin in the presence of sunlight. In older
adults it is done with less efficiency. Two reasons are they spend less time in sun and there
is less vitamin D in diet. Intestinal absorption is less in older adults. Also, due to less calcium
in diet absorption is less. Adequate calcium intake is necessary. Inactivity leads to porous
bones, sun is necessary.

A child like curiosity helps to keep mind alert and enthusiastic to learn things. A healthy
competitive attitude with young helps to sharpen the mind.
Be mindful of posture and any discomfort change accordingly to relax.
Listen to sounds you hear around you, sharpens hearing. Be mindful of the multifarious
sounds in surroundings and if totally silent, enjoy the silence. If hearing is difficult visit ENT
doctor. Clear hearing is necessary in our daily life.
Focus on breathing for a couple of minutes, be aware of breath flowing in and out. Helps
mind to be calm and patient.
Hours of sleep for old people does not change, they still need the same hours of sleep as
young should. A fixed waking time is important. A morning walk helps setting the sleep
cycle. Mild exercise, reading before bed time, listening to soft music at low volume helps for
a sound sleep
Wear loose fitting and comfortable night clothes. Check if the bed is comfortable and go to
bed when sleepy. Read or listen to music and keep the lights dim. If unable to fall asleep do
not lie in the bed for long time. Get up and sit in a chair and return to bed when sleepy. Do
not watch TV while in bed. Keep day time naps short. Avoid tea, coffee smoking and alcohol
in evening. Get up when alarm rings. If unable to sleep due to pain, the solution is get
treatment but not consume sleeping pills.
Listen to caregivers; they may be professional or family members. Practice patient and
mindful listening as much as possible.
Check for diabetes or increased BP. If you take care of these two your physical and mental
health will be good.
Be mindful of your breath, focus on inhaling and exhaling. It will involuntarily control all the
parameters of the body.
Maintain your daily routine. Proper nutrition is must. Be aware of the food you are eating,
else it will lead to health disorder. Make sure to include seasonal fruits and vegetables in
your diet.
Regular exercise helps proper functioning of heart and blood circulation, reduces stroke, risk
of some cancers, dementia. It gives confidence, improves mental health, muscle strength
and bone health, and balance of the body.
Urinary incontinence leads to anxiety, depression and quality of life. Women are more
affected, they should consult a Gynaecologist or Urologist.
Constipation is not a natural part of ageing. Consult your physician, dietary adjustment also
helps.
Avoid inactivity and be active as much as possible.

Include walking in your daily routine. Divide your walk into three stages. First, walk slowly for 10 minutes, then walk briskly for about twenty minutes and then walk walk leisurely for 10 minutes. Footwear should be comfortable.
Make a will for your assets; makes transition of property easy and clear.
Skin care is very much important, consult a specialist.
Bathroom should have side rods for support and not slippery.
Lastly avoid depression to overpower your mind. Engage in social activities and read scriptures. Focused breathing and the thought that you are always happy helps you to ward
away the symptoms.

A must read to elder citizens or to be read by younger ones to make sure the elders follow.
A good read 8/10

Revocation of Closure order by GPCB

Company held it’s first con call. Some of the risks are now non-risks based on the explanation from Mgmt.

1. “valuation is steep, 65 PE”. PE won’t be appropriate measure at this stage because major part of the earning is from interest out of 1200 odd cr. in the bank. This money and what they make next few years will get utilized in the service centers which they want to setup. A back of the envelop calculation of their core earning for FY25 would be (going by their guidance) 7000-8000 cr. topline and 2.5% EBITDA margins. So, 175-200 Cr. EBITDA, They plan to spend about 400-500 cr. in setting up these service centers per year @ 25Cr. per center and 20-30 centers per year. So some appropriate depreciation and the most of the EBITDA + interest income should should go to PBT. 3400 cr. of EV for 175-200 cr. of EBITDA looks decent ?

2. With a call behind us, the 2nd risk is now taken care.

3. Risk to expansion and question on business model – This should monitored.

4. Risk of dilution : Mgmt. clarified this point in the call. They don’t need much additional money for nearly 20x growth in next 5 years. In fact that’s what makes this an exciting opportunity.

5. Thin Margins : Most often inventory losses & operating deleverage are the enemy of thin margin business. Mgmt. tried to argue against the possibility of inventory losses in this business. It will be a very interesting battle to learn form.

Disc: Invested after the concall.