Agreed. The worst thing is the constant revision of guidance. First it was 800 Cr for FY24, then 680 Cr, then 610 Cr while promising 900 Cr in Fy 25, now 30-35% growth in revenue which on a rev of 580 Cr would be 760 - 780 Cr for FY25 and an EBITDA margin revision to 22% coming down from 28 and then 26. Atleast have the decency to stick to a specific guidance. Last concall there was a lot of reassurance in play with claims of 900 Cr being a “conservative” figure. Now further revision in guidance! Unbelievable.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Walchandnagar Industries | Return of a Golden Era (28-05-2024)
The result is not that bad at all. Without the very large one time income skewing the numbers , it’s the first quarter in many years when they have lost less than a rupee per share .
While this result may not attract new investors because they are still not in black, there are many things to please existing ones .
- Reduced interest cost by 2 crores or so and cash balance 55 crores in hand suggesting further debt reduction possible.
- Point no. 7 in small saying substantial portion of assets fully depreciated.
Disc. Invested around these levels recently
My mistakes with the stock market (28-05-2024)
Invest in HSI or NSDQ when they are 30% to 50% down instead of forcibly doing SIP in NIFTY. The benefit of international diversification can be staggering.
Satia Industries – Journey towards Cyclical to Shallow Cyclical? (28-05-2024)
SATIA INDUSTRIES LTD PERFORMANCE NOTE FOR Q4 FY24 DOWNLOAD FROM THIS LINK.
DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST/ ADVISOR.
THIS REPORT IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE.
Shivam27’s Portfolio and Investment Journal (28-05-2024)
How do you tackle the problem of businesses with high valns and almost non existent cash flows ? Azad for eg. has generated cumulatively 9 cr of cash flow vs 280 cr of cumulative ebitda. This is not just related to Azad, I am struggling at the same issue. There are high chances of dilution and leveraging… I am invested in zaggle which has the same issue but I am comfortable cause the scalability may not be a challenge as it’s a saas type biz . But when it comes to capital intensive cos with cash flow issues where orders can get delayed, capacities can take time to ramp up, how do you deal with that? Is excess debt on bs/dilution an exit trigger in these cases ? Thanks for sharing your pf and thesis behind your stocks.
PDS Limited – A platform for entrepreneurs (28-05-2024)
It is combination multiple factors, such as operating leverage kicks in, fixed cost such as employee expresnes getting observed by higher revenue recognition, new vertical such as Brand management and SAAS are higher margin business which are growing and becoming bigger share of the pie. Interest Cuts are expected this year, which leads to low interest cost expense.
So basically they have guided for 2.5Billion(20K crore rupees) dollar revenue and margin of 5% PAT by 2027, that’s the basis for 1000cr PAT, and also so far the management has been walking the talk, about first half of prev FY being drag down, then the flat/recovery at the second half. Investing in business and talent while the industry was not buoyant. I liked these qualities in them
Them being a Platform business augur well for the shareholders IMO.
Intense Technologies (28-05-2024)
Intense Technologies - Company and Q4FY24 Earnings Analysis
The company gained my attention when they reported their Q4FY24 results last week. Looking at the just the fundamentals where the company has cross Rs. 100 crores of revenue for the first time, strong order pipeline, all the major banks being their customers, and their flagship product being a market leader, it mostly checked all the points.
However, reading about the management and its erroneous activities in the past, it just eroded away all my confidence in the company. Reading about experiences of knowledgeable investors on Valuepickr, just didn’t help in adding conviction. Although, the company now claims that they are in a transition phase and the young blood are taking over, however this is not the first time management has over-promised and failed to deliver. I am avoiding the stock for now.
Here’s the detailed company and earnings analysis if anyone’s interested:
MTAR Technologies – A wager on innovation meeting economies of scale (28-05-2024)
Whether it’s guidance around revenue growth, or EBITDA margins, I am going to take anything coming from MTAR’s management with a pound of salt going forward. Results are disappointing, to say the least. I am going to wait for an earnings call transcript before sharing my updated thoughts on the company.
Walchandnagar Industries | Return of a Golden Era (28-05-2024)
here you go!
Still think this will set the ball rolling?
Steel Strips Wheels Limited – Attractive Valuations (28-05-2024)
I think the main kicker would be margins as they have taken price hikes in existing steel wheel business. Also, key negative in the commentary was lower than expected growth outlook in alloy penetration in the like of Hyundai. Uno Minda has shown good growth in alloy wheels mainly due their presence in Maruti where premium mix has increased substantially but Hyundai already had high mix of premium (FY24 over FY23 mix)
Stock is fairly valued and I think the optionality comes from knuckle business and higher mix of alloy in export. However, high debt level along with aggressive capex remains a risk in medium term.