Scheme of Demerger approved by shareholders, secured and unsecured creditors. Any idea when the demerger will materialise?
Posts in category Value Pickr
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-07-2024)
@Aayushjha8 Momentum strategy works differently. We look for stocks that are showing momentum and invest. If they run out of steam, we exit.
Therefore, to answer your questions.
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There is no concept like stop loss. We exit when the stock has lost momentum (relatively compared at other stocks in the investing universe).
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Again, momentum investing works differently. We aim to buy high and sell higher. More importantly, we don’t go on stock basis, but review our portfolio every week (or fortnight or month). Exit stocks that have lost momentum and enter ones that are showing.
Azad Engineering – A stock picker’s dream! (11-07-2024)
That’s quite an analysis! Thank you Shreesh J for your in-depth study and analysis. It appears that Azad has an attractive and very specialized business model. However, the cash-flow cycle doesn’t appear good financial management at all. I am NOT a qualified business/financial/stock analyst. I would appreciate opinion of experts in the group whether Azad is a GOOD investment opportunity for a retail investor like me?
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (11-07-2024)
The level of 1215 is a 3 year high for Symphony and it was taken out in the latest upmove which began from 820 in March 24 to a high of 1290 in June 2024 which is a move of 50% magnitude.
While the 1215 level should be an important milestone, we also have to consider some amount of retracement to the above mentioned rally as a normal event. Putting in retracement levels to the upmove from 820 to 1290, the low yesterday of 1106 co incides with a 38.2% retracement to the entire upmove. Yesterday amidst a weak market the stock price managed to post a bullish hammer candle. However these daily signals can often be erroneous. But in any major multiyear breakout, post the breakout a retest of the previous resistance is often seen and stock prices go even below that breakout level and then reverse. Something similar seems to be happening with Symphony in my view. I would keep an eye on daily charts to spot any signs of strong reversal from the short term downtrend on daily charts. If stock price keeps falling, we have to keep an appropriate stop loss and take action.
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (11-07-2024)
The 10 WEMA and 30 WEMA are not averages etched in stone. These can just be a couple of parameters to objectively view momentum in a chart. Usually charts in strong near term uptrend take support at region of 10 WEMA and those in medium term momentum take support in region of 30 WEMA.
Different people use it differently. Some trend following traders use a 10 WEMA to keep adding to their positions on the way up, and sell the spikes seen in strong momentum stocks. Others use it as a mental stop loss wherein if a stock conclusively breaches 10 WEMA then they plan exits.
There are no fixed rules for using these moving averages. Personally I tend to go down one time frame lower on daily charts and see if there are any signs of near term weakness in strongly trending stocks.
Idea should be to start having atleast a system to follow and then see if it works and try to get better at it. At the end of all the exercise after a few months/quarters/years, idea should be to land up with a system that works for us and is easy to implement. It need not be based on moving avgs also. Can be just price patterns with volumes, broad formations like rounding bottoms, cup and handles, flags etc. It’s a constant march towards something close to a holy grail.
Natco Pharma: Focusing On Complex Products (11-07-2024)
Some of the key highlights on Revlimid on Q4 Concall:
1 Q). Could you provide some insight on the contribution of Revlimid to overall sales for 4Q? And also, how should we look at it in the Financial Year ‘25 as well? So, do we anticipate any significant moves to revenue from this in the upcoming years?
1 A) Revlimid is obviously a good portion of our earnings this quarter. Overall, our RoW business has also done well. Brazil has done extremely well. Canada has done well. Brazil, I think direct exports and our subsidiary exports are almost $25 million to $26 million a year. Canadian sub has done nearly CAD 40 million. So, overall, our RoW business is doing well. I think this year, we have some very good orders from Egypt and Saudi. So, we are working very hard to diversify our RoW business and I think the endeavor has gone well.In terms of split and all, we don’t do it for strategic reasons. But I think I have answered your question. I think a good portion of it is coming from Revlimid. And so this year, based on the orders that we have and overall business prospects,
2Q) so next year or I mean, next financial year, is when Revlimid goes off patent and we could see a substantial decline in earning. I know this question has been asked many times, and we are now very close to that date. So, I mean, how does the management think about the business? We have a pipeline, I agree but just from let’s say, FY '27 onwards, how do you think building that base which is going to be a big gap to fill, so if you can share some thoughts?
2A) Again, see that challenge everybody faces. I think we all have very good products. I mean we had this in history. If you look at Natco’s history, we always had these big products. Glatiramer used to do extremely well, but now it’s declined a bit. Tamiflu used to do extremely well and then over a period of time it declined. So, we just have to keep finding something new. That’s the challenge that I face and everybody faces. I think in markets like our business and pharmaceutical business where everybody is well financially geared, there’s very little money
that you could make in a product where there are multiple suppliers. So, we can only make money in the niches.
3Q) I am just thinking beyond Jan '26 on Revlimid. Does the distribution agreement and profit share agreement which you got, continued beyond the settlement date of Jan '26 in pretty much the same term?
3A) Yes, we have an arrangement with Teva that will continue
Why do you think people in India don’t take help from financial advisors? (11-07-2024)
Ishu has expressed the reality. I think lack of professionalism and trust factor are two major concerns. In many a case, I have experienced that the so called planners try to sell you an investment product rather than guiding you to financial success.
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (11-07-2024)
Long Way To Go
In the past bull runs , Sensex has gone 5 X (90-94) to 8X (2002-2008).
In current bull run , if we count from Covid lows , we’re hardly 3.5 X but if we count from Feb 2020 , we’re only 2 X .
So a long way to go if we go by history .( it might not repeat but it may rhyme )
Yes , no movement is in straight line .
Smallcap momentum portfolio (10-07-2024)
Sir @visuarchie, I recently joined this forum. I have 2 questions.
- is there any guideline what will be stop loss for fresh position.
- Can you suggest me any fresh position i can enter. As most of stock in your list has already given move