In my opinion demand will improve post elections as the new govt may introduce some policies to bring up the travel industry. (?). even aviation sector is facing some challenges. Domestic travel has to go up so that these hotels will see better results.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Samhi Hotels – Turnaround with Tailwinds (25-04-2024)
Thanx for sharing your views… Here is my views on the Unit Economics of SHAMI hotels.
TAILWIND
^ IHCL Commentary Q3Fy24 – Hotel room demand growing at 8-10% far exceeds supply at 5-6% CAGR.
^ As per ICRA Mar 2024 – In FY2024, the RevPAR is expected to be at an 8-12% discount to the FY2008 peak. ICRA expects hotel industry to report a 7-9% revenue growth. And as per various research report SAMHI rev growth will be close to 20%.
^ As per Jeffries report Mar 2024- “Foreign tourist arrivals have yet to catch up, while Indian Nationals’ Departures are back to pre-COVID levels.” which is a tailwind for SAMHI hotel being internationally recognized brands. With Occupancy CY23 broadly matches CY19 levels.
Occupancy at close to 70% in Fy2024 which can further go to 80-85%.
Samhi Hotels – Turnaround with Tailwinds (25-04-2024)
Hello
Thank you!
For me I view competition as increasing Supply
SAMHI is this premium position( not ultra luxury like Oberoi but premium) where the average key price is 1-2cr and the time to build considerable keys takes a few years!
I am not worried on the supply side as whatever a company does, they can’t hasten the process by a few years to build keys!
However, I am worried about Demand side! If consumers were to spend less and the traction reduces, there could be a problem!
In terms of tailwind for the company, my bet is mainly on the sectoral tailwind+deleveraging that the company can do. I am not so sure, but the cities that SAMHI operates in will have increasing demand compared to India so the rate at which the RevPAR can shoot up is higher!
Check Chalet hotels as well, they too operate in similar geographical areas
Tata Consumer Products Limited (TATACONSUM) (25-04-2024)
The margins were better and the rural demand seems to be picking up. I hope the bottom is near. Invested in Tata Consumer since 2020.
Kotak Mahindra Bank – Low Cost Liability Banking Franchise (25-04-2024)
as expected 12-14% dip since morning…now howering around 10%…lack of deposit growth from new accounts will hurt but more than anything else, inspite of knowing pretty well that their IT infra is weak, they never bothered…have a look at any of their apps, web sites…zero thought (in fact, negative thought has gone into it…the whole thought process is to ensure that no one can navigate easily and make a mess seems to be the motto)…ease of use, scale up, security, aesthetics, listening to the customer, all sub zero to the core…if I were at the top, I will sack the entire IT team
Tata Consumer Products Limited (TATACONSUM) (25-04-2024)
I too have invested in this & HUL. And bit worried about large caps in FMCG. The demand is not picking up… may be post-election things will change…
Samhi Hotels – Turnaround with Tailwinds (25-04-2024)
Nice Thesis. I too have invested in this stock and in Kamat Hotels.
Do you see any downside risk due to increased competition?
Is there any tailwinds specific to this company?
Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) (25-04-2024)
IGX has launched another new contract type, Small-Scale Liquefied Natural Gas (ssLNG) , on its platform. Volumes may not be that high in near future, but a good addition, nevertheless. More details here. As the article says, “The introduction of ssLNG contracts on IGX aims to address the growing gas demand from industries and CGD (City Gas Distribution) companies that do not have access to pipeline networks”.
I guess this will make sense only when there is a reasonable differential between LNG prices and crude prices given that cost of transportation of LNG via trucks is likely to be high. Thoughts?
Refex Renewables & Infrastructure Ltd (25-04-2024)
Add last financials & detailed risk analysis.
Force Motors – racing ahead! (25-04-2024)
Thanks so much for the response.
Yeah they seem to be adding new geographies like Nepal and central America ( Gautemala)