Agreed that Kotak is as good or even a better option than hdfc at cmp. Personally im not a kotak customer and i want as much of a stress free investment here as possible wherein i dont bother tracking at all and somehow hdfc gives me that reassurance. That being said i was planning on adding hdfc to my wifes PF too… will take a pause on that and figure out if kotak could be a better way and would also help me move things away from just one basket
Posts in category Value Pickr
Pune investors group (28-02-2024)
Am in too… interested to talk to like minded people
RR Kabel -Wires, Cables and FMEG- Akalmand Bano Sahi Chuno (28-02-2024)
Please add detailed risk analysis. Till you comply, the thread remains locked.
Lancer Containers (28-02-2024)
Update: The management clarified in the concall that the cost of the vessel is 7 million $ and the cost was split between Lancer & Lotus in the same proportion as the ownership in JV which is 51:49. => 30cr of cost borne by Lancer.
The profit sharing will happen in the same ratio.
disc: had exited earlier, will reconsider adding it back.
Bitcoin/Cryptocurrencies – Digital Gold or Tulip Bulb? (28-02-2024)
Bitcoin is back to all time high. Four times it has crashed over 80%, yet every four years it makes another all time high.
Thankfully there is no social media trend of laser eyes, nor anybody calling me to ask about some doge or shiba! Those are still down over 80% though.
Every bull run will attract people hoping to make some quick gains. They will bid up the price aggressively, attracting more like them raising the price even further. Eventually too much leverage will build up causing yet another Bitcoin crash!
But every cycle, more people will take note of its resilience and long term gains. It is volatile, yet it is one of least risky asset as there is very low chance of permanent loss or even a loss lasting more than four years. More such people will start accumulating bitcoin using their income every now and then. Bitcoin being a finite asset with more people accumulating creates strong support for the price and ensures the eventual bottom is still many times higher than the previous bear market lows.
Bitcoin’s value comes from people using it to save their earnings. They use it because of its resilience and returns over long term while the price rise is then driven by more people using it for savings. This circularity is also a characteristic of ponzi schemes but what differentiates Bitcoin is its truly limited supply. There is no authority in control of Bitcoin, nor is it easy or profitable to take control by design, so it is now almost impossible to change its supply. That is also why 99% crypto don’t last beyond one bull run because almost all of them still have someone in control. Thus they meet all the characteristics of ponzi. Interestingly, fiat also has a central authority which can adjust its supply as they see fit. Compared to Bitcoin, Dollar is more like a ponzi than a store of value.
Cineline India – Picture abhi baaki hai (28-02-2024)
Yep, I bought it at slightly higher level I guess. Would have to wait on it. Have added some more during the price fall.
The story looks promising with an experienced promoter.
Every quarter, they are paying 10 Cr on interest cost, which is equivalent to 2 screens (5 Cr capex on each screen). If the company reduces debt after hotel sale, they should be opening 10 more screens in an year (at max).
Looking at PVR’s past acquisitions, each sceeen gets a valuation of 7-10 Cr. So each year, additional 70-100 Cr value unlock will be there post debt repayment.
However, growth is difficult in such a Capex heavy business without additional debt or equity dilution. Even with assumption of 5 Cr profit every quarter, the RoE of company will be 12.5% (book value – 160 Cr)
Given RoE is lesser than growth, looks difficult to sustain growth with profits only. However, RoE should expand slowly with each screen increase. Have to patiently wait, till RoE becomes 20% or more.
Page industries (28-02-2024)
Whats the view on the stock after a steep fall and now trading at 52W low levels? Despite good results in Q3 and Domestic MF continuously increasing stake (FIIs and Retail reducing).
Any potential triggers to watch out for as valuation appears reasonable now?
Number of stock for retail investor (28-02-2024)
In my opinion, number of stocks can be decided based on maximum amount, in terms of absolute value, which you are willing to invest in a single stock.
For Example, in 20 Lacs portfolio, if are ready to invest maximum 2 Lacs in single stock; then 10 stocks may be sufficient for you.
If the portfolio size is 50 Lacs, but you are not comfortable to invest more than 3 Lacs in single stock, then number of stocks should go up accordingly to about 15-16.
At the end of the day, if you can have sound sleep at night, after investing amount X in single stock, then it is fine.
in general, my observation is that, as your Portfolio Size grows in terms of absolute value, No. of stocks tend to go up to minimize the stock level risk.
Generally, having up to 6% exposure to single stock, at cost level, could be fine with most of the investors. But for those who have very sound understanding of business fundamentals, even 10% could be fine.
This is not a guidance but just few observations from my experience.
RR Kabel -Wires, Cables and FMEG- Akalmand Bano Sahi Chuno (28-02-2024)
RR Kabel was listed on Indian exchanges on September 20, 2023. Company was incorporated in 1995.
RR Kabel is a reputed name in consumer electrical products used for residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure purposes in two major segments
- Wires and cables ~ 89 % revenue (house wires, industrial wires, power cables, and special cables)
- FMEG ~ 11% revenue (Fans, Lighting, Switches, Switchgear and Home & Kitchen Appliances )
Opening this thread as there isn’t one. Find more details on :
-
Financials : R R Kabel Ltd financial results and price chart – Screener
-
Investor presentation : https://d11j38mwm79wh6.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Investor-Presentation-Q2.pdf (redirected from FY 2023-2024 – RR Kabel)
-see slide 29 for Industry Growth Drivers
Manufacturing units – Located at Waghodia, Gujarat, and Silvassa, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu primarily manufacture wire, cables and switches.
Integrated Manufacturing units Located at Roorkee, Uttarakhand; Bengaluru, Karnataka; and Gagret, Himachal Pradesh, primarily manufacture FMEG products.
Outlook:
The wires & cables (W&C) industry is thriving on the government’s thrust on infrastructure and rural electrification, along with growth in commercial and residential sectors, 5G rollout, and digitization. Increasing demand from consumers to upgrade or replace existing products is an added bonus.
Multi billion dollar push and increasing demand for Energy – be is Solar, Wind, Coal, etcetera, puts organized players in Wires & Cables industry in a decent spot for long term.
Additional points:
- 5th largest player in the Indian Wires and Cables(W&C) industry by value in FY23.
- Main competitor – Havells, Polycab, KEI, Finolex
- Electrical conglomerate exports to 65 countries worldwide. (Yet to launch in Africa & South America- No immediate plans- potential trigger)
- Products have 35 international certifications- significant number
Brand Ambassador – Akshay Kumar since 2018
Founder Chairman: Migrated from Bangladesh to Nepal and then back to his roots in India. Rameshwarlal Kabra started RR Kabel in Mumbai. In 2018, he received the Padma Shree honour by the President of India, Ram Nath Kovind, for his work in rural and tribal societies. Padma Shree is fourth highest civilian recognition in Republic of India
Disclaimer:
I have gathered information solely based on publicly available data and have not interacted with company’s management.
I am invested in the company so my views might be biased.
Malkd’s Core Portfolio (28-02-2024)
I would agree with this view that, Kotak Bank can list some of its subsidiaries in future and probability of value unlocking seems more compared to HDFC Bank.