Understood

A stock market can get overheated at which point unless you’re a very large fish like Mr Buffet, I think one would step aside

Another way of putting it is not finding enough value to warrant a purchase at current price.

My question was around that and models and backtests around macro economics, more out of personal interest, if you’ve found anything meaningful. I came across some models based on fundamental data like o/n RRP and it’s role on predicting interest rate movements etc, so was looking at that as a whole.

Probably my mistake in calling it backtests as it’s not really a backtest but for want of better and succinct word, I probably used that term and misled.

I gather you are probably looking at buy and hold for ever but it someone doesn’t align with your 4-quadrant analysis chart as a company in tailwind sector will eventually get into headwind sector, vice versa

Answer

• Raw material and power cost are two biggest items for Solar glass , after 10% duty and 4-5% premium which domestic companies enjoy Borosil expects 20% EBITDA margin which is decent in our opinion . While foreign operations of Borosil struggle due to higher energy and labour costs.

Do the penewable energy producers (Tata Power, Adani Green etc) stand to advantage (Vis-à-vis traditional players using Thermal/Coal etc.) from the decline in global decline in module prices? Spready between Cost of production and selling price etc.

How does the efficiency of Solar cell/modules change over a period of time (5 years-10-years etc after installation) and also do the players like Waaree/Premier Energies have any backended liabilites attached to the operational efficiency of the components supplied by them?

We believe that the profits earned by solar module manufacturers will enable them to invest in backward integration, contributing to India’s clean energy security. The incentives and higher profitability will create incentives to backward integrate and create a manufacturing base in long run is the expectation of GOI policies.

Several independent power producers (IPPs), such as Tata Power, Adani Green, and ReNew Power, have already backward integrated into the manufacturing of modules, cells, and wafers, strengthening their supply chains and reducing dependency on external sources. Conversely, some IPPs like JSW Energy have opted to withdraw from module manufacturing, because of lower expected IRRs.