Question
- Players like NTPC are suggesting that module makers are profiteering from non-tariff barriers, what is your view on it?
Question
Answer
Government incentives have been instrumental in driving solar energy adoption by enhancing the financial viability of solar projects. In the U.S., the Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) allows solar investors to depreciate solar assets over five years, providing substantial tax benefits. Combined with the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which can offset installation costs, businesses can recoup nearly 50% of their solar investment over a five-year period.
In India, the adoption of accelerated depreciation, currently set at 40%, is expected to have a similar impact. This policy reduces taxable income and shortens the payback period, making solar investments more appealing for businesses.
Question
• Sales growth in Q1FY25 was lower as the company prioritized high EBITDA margin projects. We believe the rest of FY25 will have a higher growth rate with margins greater than that of FY24.
• The slowing order book presents a concern; however, we anticipate growth to resume once the U.S. capacity is operational. Additionally, the domestic business—spanning both utilities and franchisees—has shorter execution cycles, which we will be able to monitor more closely post-listing.
Healthy Profitability –
Buoyed by margins, return ratios were strong in FY24. Before FY23, the ROE ranged from 2% to 38%. The trend of healthy return ratios is anticipated to persist, driven by sustained robust margins and higher asset turnover resulting from improved capacity utilization.
ROCE of 9.45% in Q1FY25 is not annualized number, hence can not be compared with ROCE of full year.
Please kindly review if this is possible.
Got at some presentation by AIL to HNi’s and some institutions
Question
Waaree Energies Ltd
Is the declining trend not a cause for concern:
Export sales have declined 45% YoY from 2,414 cr in Q1FY24 to 1,340 cr Q1FY25!!
YoY top-line growth has declined from 137% in FY23 to 69% in FY24, and further to just 2.5% in Q1 FY25!
Order book has dropped from a peak of around 20 GW in FY24 to approx 17 GW in Q1 FY25.
RoCE has decreased from approx 32% in FY23 to 9.45% in Q1 FY25.
Answer
Waaree Energy
Waaree Energies is undertaking backward integration into cell and wafer manufacturing. The company’s 5.4 GW cell line is projected to commence operations by the end of Q4 FY25, with an initial 1.4 GW capacity expected to be operational by the end of Q3 FY25.
Additionally, Waaree is expanding into complementary sectors, including electrolyzers for green hydrogen and battery storage, to diversify its business beyond solar modules. Monitoring management’s execution in these new ventures will be essential.
Current Capacity & proposed expansion-
The current operational capacity stands at 13.3 GW, distributed across five distinct plants and 20 production lines spread across 136 acres of land. The company has strategic plans to augment this capacity to 21 GW by incorporating additional capabilities through the establishment of two new plants located in Odisha, and Texas.
The maximum capacity utilization can be 85%, as the production lines have to change specifications for different orders.
||Upcoming Cell Production Lines: |
A 1.4 GW Mono PERC cell line is scheduled to begin production in November 2024, with an anticipated stabilization period of 20-25 days to achieve an efficiency of 23.5%. The company has deployed 40 Chinese engineers on-site to oversee the commissioning and stabilization process.
According to management, one of the competitors took 6-9 months to stabilize their cell line, as the machinery was originally designed for Chinese conditions and required reconfiguration to suit Indian conditions. This reconfiguration process was further complicated by the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
4 GW TOPCon cell line is anticipated to begin production by the end of FY25. The capacity also features LECO technology which enhances cell efficiency by 0.3%.
What is the steady margins for Solar EPC companies as the margins reported by SW Solar and Waaree Technologies are very different?
Question
Waaree Energies
The solar energy production value chain involves several technologically intensive processes, including sourcing polycrystalline silicon as a raw material and producing silicon wafers and ingots from it. Currently, only Adani Group produces these wafers and ingots in India for internal use. Waaree has no solar cell manufacturing capabilities as on date(?). It plans to set up a 6GW capacity ingot-wafers, solar cells and modules manufacturing facility at Odisha and has earmarked ₹2,500 crore from the IPO proceeds for this purpose. It takes a company around 2-3 years to set up and operate technologically complex cell manufacturing facilities and uncertainties related to the efficiency and reliability in-house production. In this context, Premier Energies, which has set up a new 2GW solar cell and module manufacturing plant, is already way ahead of Waaree Energies??. Your comments, please.
Is it a fair argument when one says Waree’s only competitive advantage right now is its demand security because of its strong export capabilities and substantial government policy support and US’s protectionist trade policies against China. Despite such strong financial performance, industry experts think Waaree Energies does not have a strong enough moat to evince investor interest like Premier Energies because it does not yet have an operational solar cell manufacturing facility. And that they would need extensive funding to develop new moats in the long run. Your comments, please?
Answer
All solar modules come with a 30-year performance warranty, typically following a degradation curve as applicable to that particular technology used.
When evaluating solar module manufacturers, it’s important to consider the warranty risk. However, this risk can be mitigated by insuring the products. Insurers assess various certifications before issuing coverage, so it may be reasonable to assume that companies with insured modules are producing modules of acceptable quality.
Historically, when warranties have been invoked, module manufacturers have often replaced the panels, which can be beneficial to them due to the declining cost of solar modules over time.
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