Any reason for such a big fall? Results were not that bad

https://www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-kalyani-group-to-invest-rs-26000-crore-in-odisha-3392947/lite/

Requesting the esteemed members to please elaborate on the impact this investment may have on the KSL.

I agree with your anti thesis pointers in the narrative, but in my opinion till the EBITDA margin expansion + revenue margin thesis here is intact, there is significant scope for the stock to deals with these overhangs.

Even if I am very conservative in my assumptions and take Q4 revenue as flat over Q4 last year and 20%+ margins (already delivered in Q3) as the margin base, it gives me an estimated topline for this year of ~1900 Cr. At 20% OPM, EBITDA is ~400 Cr and PAT is 200 Cr+. At even historical median valuations, there is still is significant upside in share price in my thesis. And this is base case.

What I anticipate would be bull case as like I mentioned above I expect strong revenue tailwinds from central election advertising in Q4 and Q1, coupled with the added benefit of reducing newsprint pricing and operating leverage play out. Revenue could be significantly higher than 1900 Cr for the year in that case. Projections look even much better than above if that happens. I think this is rightly reflecting in DB Corp/HT Media but not in Jagran, yet.

Not only upcoming Q4, Q1 should also be strong with the election advertising peaking in March/April/May.

Disclosure : Invested, biased. Same as above

JP ji.
What would be your rationale for exiting HFCL ?
if i remember correctly this was fairly recent addition.
Did you achieve your target or did you find unexpected development after your investment ?

@ashutosh13 I shared my portfolio. I exited Paytm few days after unsecured loan slowdown alarm came through. My view on Paytm has turned more negative since then. I was banking upon their distritbution of loans which at some point of time should have given 3000 to 4000 crores of commission on disbursal of 1lakh crore of loans (in 3 years time). However, with PPBL related compliance notice, it is possible that many of the lending partners wait and watch to see how the situation is evolving. So I expect the situation to worsen before it gets better (in -terms of earnings). I am fine to be late in this than being early.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.