I am unable to read any of the last 2 or 3 news-paper publication uploaded by the Skipper on BSE/NSE websites, the english paper Ad The Picture quality of the English Paper Advertisement is very poor, any of you feel the same or something wrong with my downloading the copy or reading ?

Bad Numbers

I didnt understand why they are not able to increase their profits while they are market leader of insoluable sulpher

Thanks for this nudge to read Housel’s 2nd book (hopefully soon).

I had a quick (maybe a stupid question) – US market data shows an 80% chance of making a +ve return if one is held for 5 years while it’s 88.61% as per your data from the IND market.

Is there any particular reason there are >10% higher chances of a +ve return if one holds for 5y in IND than the US?

Another way to put is there’s a 2x higher chance of making +ve return in IND than the US (5y in IND vs 10y in the US).

PS – hopefully, I’m interpreting the data points correctly.

They produce highly specialised products that are used on either side of the line, from underwater submarine gears to components for missiles & our space program. Diverse, highly technical, and need of the decade as declared by the Government.

Regarding valuations – very difficult at this stage, considering the past & many moving parts yet to settle down.

Aside from reasons mentioned in my original post, my gut tells me:

Walchandnagar is a race horse. The horse was the pride of India, once upon a time. The sector dipped, the horse got lazy, sick, and unhealthy. It’s been unhealthy for a very long time.

Now, there’s a resurgence in the sector. And with that, there’s demand for the race horse. However, the horse needs to regain it’s health, so there’s work ongoing to fix its ailments (debt restructuring), to give it better nutrition (preferential with ‘several’ astute long-term investors), and to bring it back to being the pride of the nation (patriotic & nation building capex driving needs for their products).

Can the horse get any more sick that it already has been? Unlikely.

Can the horse regain its health and become the prime race horse that it once was? All the efforts are in that direction, time will tell.

I like turnarounds, especially these kinds. I liked hearing Chirag Doshi speak, I found honesty & pride in his voice. I’m invested.

If you study numbers, you won’t find any joy (study them post Q1FY25). If you study the brand, and the story that can unfold, you will find a lot of joy. Would I like to be part of this rebuilding journey? Heck yeah!

Is the right approach to adopt for investing decisions? Absolutely not. I may be completely wrong in my decision and everything can go south. I am highly unconventional and unorthodox in my approach.

I’m NOT an expert, just a dreamer.