Just to put things in perspective,
If you compare it with phonepe valuation with 47%+ market share vs 14% for paytm in UPI** that should give around 3.6B USD (phonepe last valued at 12B USD) + lending business is much bigger than phonepe or anyone else in fintech + PayPay’s 5% stake (it is major player in Japan where you can get good money for payment business, as per google search (https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/softbank-considering-us-listing-paypay-payments-business-sources-2023-07-12/) last time it was valued at 7B USD+) + PayTM money has decent scale + Decent marketing and distribution business/ event business + travel agent business + Offline dominance in soundbox – this is piece will get impacted in near term but nothing that will kill it.

**I do not think P2P UPI will ever chargeable (of course there can be charge after some limit) but main income is P2M where I think PayTM has more comparable share with Phonepe.

This is as of now. Thanks!

Disc. Holding significant position in portfolio so may be biased.

As per my analysis, Profit Before Tax has been trending downward in the past 4 years.
It has dropped from 1400 to 1050 Crores in the past 4-5 years.
Net Profit is also under pressure due to this.
As mentioned in this thread, they are expanding their Agents network and the revenue per agent is not yet up to the mark. So overall except growth in premiums, all other profitability parameters are under stress after acquisition of Exide Life.

It seems that, Management may need more time to show increase in profit parameters. Market may not be happy with this scenario of low or nil growth in PAT, hence Stock price is also under constant pressure.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/kitex-spins-big-t-plans-with-worlds-longest-unit-in-hyd/articleshow/104029199.cms?from=mdr

Paytm’s Marketing & Financial Svcs Biz Will Not Affected Due To RBI’s Curbs: Vijay Shekhar Sharma

any comments?
2 things is clearly gone, and that is wallet and fastag. Everything will be done with separate banking partners, like lending, PoS or QR. So, then what is the difference between PayTM and other fintechs like GPay and PhonePe. Especially PhonePe which provides almost similar suite of services like PayTM. The main difference was wallet, Fastag and Bank (ability to raise deposits, which can then be lent to customers). So, there might be issue of competitive pressure as well. This doesn’t look like an existential question as people are making it, but surely it will delay profitability in far future.