Posts in category Value Pickr
Investment strategy review (Long term) (26-01-2024)
You said that “…will probably change the approach” so I think it’s too soon for me to comment/evaluate something. Plus, you seem to have just started so I don’t want to be critical.
From a broader perspective, I can suggest the following:
1. Luck and Skill are two different things
There has to be a rationale for the decisions you make. I am not able to find a rationale in your allocation or investment choices. Casual decision-making leads to casual outcomes. If it’s a casual choice, then you need to be ready to live with the consequences when things go wrong.
2. Past performance does NOT guarantee future performance.
I do not track Invesco so do not what’s going on there. Your expectation about linear returns tells me that you need more time in the markets before I can advise. A few years back, a large bank that seemed to give consistent returns for years has been now going through a price correction.
3. Safe assets are NOT for return maximizing.
Maximizing returns will bring risks. I used to try to maximize returns on debt investments and was lucky to learn early why not to do it. Perhaps, you will have your own lessons.
Try understanding the Franklin saga and why Investors got locked in the popular fund.
4. Choosing your teachers
This again is quite concerning. Not talking about the quality of their advice but the advice-seeking process. In general, you need to choose people whom you want to learn from.
5. Portfolio Construction
When I said “3k can’t be considered as a part of the PF”, I meant that I would consider its value to essentially become zero. It might never reach there but there are reasons why I would consider to be 0. You can read about “portfolio construction”.
6. Maths.
The numbers don’t add up. From 1cr to 5cr is 5x in 5 years. That too, when you’re starting with 55% of investments in safe investments.
Given your age, your income might increase with time but then it’s generic information since I do not know the growth trajectory (for example: how much % increment, frequency of increment etc).
Plus, you’ll need to consider the fact that your expenses will likely increase. Also, there can be unpredictable circumstances – say health emergencies. Think of people dependent upon you. There’s a lot more to this. Once again, I think you should read about “portfolio construction”.
If I have to review your approach currently, I would say there are several shortcomings. But I do believe that it doesn’t matter where one starts from as long as we end up right. Further, sometimes we need to burn our hands to understand fire. As long as one keeps on introspecting and working on themselves, one gets there.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered research analyst or an institution. These are my personal views. My views keep on changing with learnings and time and I often go wrong.
Annapurna Swadisht Ltd – A Swadisht FMCG investment? (26-01-2024)
I think they have not included the SME feed into their data. Annauprna, Dentalkart, Alphalogic Industries, Inflame Appliances, Robu are some of the names that I tried and are not coming up.
Shilchar Technologies – Power & Distribution Transformers – Sunrise Sector? (26-01-2024)
As per December filing, FIIs have increased stake. Disc: not invested
Can anyone answer my question about bulk deals (26-01-2024)
Many time when i see bulk deals in screener on daily basis i see that same company buy at particular price and also sells the same stock at same price. What does it mean znd why these type of buld deals are done when buys at same price and also sell at same price same company… pls i m confused to understand ehy such deals done
Linde India Ltd. – A Case Study by a Newbie! (26-01-2024)
Very contradicting things here. Green Hydrogen tender by SECI has revealed that the industry demands very low or even no incentive from the government. Whereas Linde saying the above is completely opposite of what was seen in the said tender.
Interesting to know where this green hydrogen will move. What is the logic behind asking no incentives from government. Was there some technical issue in the tender process that needs to be corrected? Or really there is a reason to ask no incentive by the industry?
Senco Gold: Upcoming gold story! (26-01-2024)
Also, where is the same store sales growth mentioned in old corporate docs ?
Senco Gold: Upcoming gold story! (26-01-2024)
Is it a good time to enter right now ? I am a local from Kolkata and have visited the 8000sq ft store and it is phenomenal. However, the “Karigars” are mostly from Bengal region and the type of work Senco manufactures orients around a typical bengali jewellery design. Whilst such a design is relevant for Eastern India, don’t you think there might be an inherent taste clash when expanding their market share from 1% nationwide ? Or is it a relatively fixable problem ?
Disc: Not invested, but looking to enter