I am not sure about the further upside in Talbros. Because if we check the P/E of Talbros it is 27.6 While Bajaj Auto (to whom Talbros is supplying) is a P/E of 26
I will be grateful if someone can throw some light
I am not sure about the further upside in Talbros. Because if we check the P/E of Talbros it is 27.6 While Bajaj Auto (to whom Talbros is supplying) is a P/E of 26
I will be grateful if someone can throw some light
That’s not a norm, but I do so since one pays for the operating income of the business. Other Income sources are multi-dimensonal and non-comparable across businesses. The adjustment calibrates the differences to have a better comparison across buisnesses.
I cross-checked and my data has lag of 1 quarter [revised the header in the earlier note]. Intent was to roughly highlight rich valuations for most names in the portfolio.
You should start focusing on 2 things.
One is ROE, the long term returns from a stock closely mirrors their average ROE. Start adding the average ROE for each stocks and the portfolio allocation weighted ROE. Now start removing the low ROE stocks and try to improve the aggregate portfolio ROE. Here the ROE trajectory is also important. If a company is undergoing large capex and current ROE is dampened as compared to average ROE of last 10 years, you should consider such exceptions as well. All such numbers you can get from Screener.
The second thing to do is start putting in expectations. For each stock based on your understanding start projecting a bear case – base case – bull case scenarios and respective probability of each. Once you start doing this, you will have an idea of not only the upside but potential downside from each stock. Here also the idea would be to maximize the expected value of the portfolio including all 3 scenarios and probability for each individual stock.
Battery swap is the answer for B2C delivery
Sun Mobility Swap Point
I have been seeing ‘Sun Mobility’ swap points everywhere in Delhi. I never thought too much about it until yesterday.
Yesterday I heard Chetan Maini(1) (2) speak about the logic of swappable batteries, particularly for fleets focusing on intra-city deliveries. Let me lay out his argument as I understand it.
Imagine you’re Zomato or Swiggy. You’re not just a food delivery app; you’re also managing the fleet delivering this food. You’ve got to think about delivery costs that you’ll eventually need to pass on to someone—either the customer ordering the food or the restaurant.
Now think about Zypp or Eveez (as shown in the image above). Both are electric scooter fleet operators. They pitch to Zomato, offering to handle deliveries within a certain price range. Now, the differentiator for them is going electric. Electricity for scooters costs less than petrol, so there’s a margin to play with here. Zypp then partners with Sun Mobility (Chetan Maini’s company), who’s invested heavily in batteries and swap points across the city. This setup means a Zypp rider can just swap a dying battery for a charged one as needed. This swapping happens within minutes at a Sun Mobility swap point.
Zypp can keep initial costs low by buying scooters without batteries, which are cheaper than traditional vehicles. And the per-unit electricity cost from Sun Mobility is easily covered by the delivery fees from Zomato, which in turn, gets passed on to Zomato’s customers.
Now, let’s consider the alternative approach which Zypp can take. Zypp decides to go solo, buying a fleet of EVs with fixed batteries. They face a hefty upfront cost, the headache of managing a charging network, and the anxiety of batteries running dry or, worse, facing a defect. It’s a fleet manager’s nightmare, considering the debt and interest payments that don’t stop even when the scooters are off the road.
This is my current reading of this space. I will update as and when my thinking evolves further.
Notes:
(1) Chetan is the founder of India’s first electric car Reva.
(2) Link to the chat. Start listening from 1:21:30
Disclosure: Please note that I may hold investments in the companies mentioned. I encourage you to conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Is that a correct measure? And what difference it makes to just judge on net operating income excluding other income? And is there so much difference between two incomes in case of Trent that PE is becoming 4 times?
Update for entry on 18th December 2023
Based on ranking
Based on A → Z for easy tracking
Entry:
ANGELONE and NLCINDIA make an entry.
CHALET AND ZENSARTECH cannot enter as there is no vacancy.
Exit:
GPIL and SAFARI exit.
MAPMYINDIA and MRPL remain within the top 25 and hence stay.
For salaried people, the ideal thing to do is to first build a decent corpus by saving in fixed income instruments or by SIP in mutual funds over a period of few years. And utilise that time to learn the ropes of investing. Once a decent amount is available and enough knowledge is acquired during that time, there will be enough of funds and knowledge both.
Other option is to have a list of few select companies and have certain price levels set where its lucrative to invest in them. So if a couple of stocks from a list of 10-15 have run up, one can choose from rest of them.
One thing I have noticed in most new investors entering markets during bull phase ( the lure of making big money during bull markets is at its peak) is that they want to jump right into the markets without proper knowledge on how to analyse companies and how the markets work. Mistakes made during bull markets are likely to be very costly especially for new investors starting off with their hard earned money.
Learning to invest is a serious endeavour, almost similar to clearing medical studies. It requires equal amount of passion and devotion. The path is simple, reading well recommended books ( pointed out many times in the past in this and other threads) , observe how things work in the markets, follow few good investors, connect with them and try to learn, so on. But it takes time and efforts. So even if one misses the current bull run, the learning will be useful in the next bull run. Stock markets always have had bull and bear markets off and on, so there should be no fear of missing out.
@pcygnii Fluorochem is showing price strength after a long time. I don’t track it too closely now.
@hitesh97 You can check this or other threads to find out list of books needed to be read for learning about investing.
Hello,
Here is my PF as on 16th Dec, 2023.
Arranged in descending order ofd capital deployed.
When Is tarted out, funds were short. Hence, many of the older scrips have a smaller allocation, some of which have run up quite well. Gravita, VBL, etc.
Sizing increased basis fund availability.
My desire is to exit 14 positions, and have a more concentrated PF.
I’d like to have 15 strong positions, and 5 microcap hopefuls.
I’d like to have a very low churn rate.
I’m not very proud of how this has turned out. If starting over, I would have focused on better position sizing, full allocation entries, and much fewer scripts.
I’m struggling on – what to exit, and where to re-allocate those funds.
How do I cut down the PF to 15-20 scripts?
Happy to hear your thoughts & suggestions.
Wish to learn & grow.
Thank you
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