KMPs including CEO are selling Syngene in big quantity in last few months

How we as retail investors should view this development, considering that the captain of ship knows best what is happening around.

15 useful mental models I’ve found workable in many life scenarios including investment decisions (h/t george mack)

1. Bragging Razor – If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim. conversely, if someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim

2. High Agency Razor – If unsure who to work with, pick the person with the best chances of breaking you out of prison.

3. The Early-Late Razor – If it’s a talking point on Reddit, you might be early. If it’s a talking point on LinkedIn, you’re late.

4. Luck Razor – If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

5. Instagram Razor – When you see a photo of an influencer looking attractive on Instagram – assume there are 99 worse variations of that photo you haven’t seen.

6. Narcissism Razor – If worried about people’s opinions, remember they are too busy worrying about other people’s opinions of them. 99% of the time you’re an extra in someone else’s movie

7. Everyday Razor – If you go from doing a task weekly to daily, you achieve 7 years of output in 1 year. If you apply a 1% compound interest each time, you achieve 54 years of output in 1 year.

8. Bezos Razor – If unsure what action to pick, let your 90-year-old self on your deathbed choose it.

9. Creativity Razor – If struggling to think creatively about a subject, transform it:

• Turn a thought into a written idea.
• A written idea into a drawing.
• A drawing into an equation.
• An equation into a conversation.

In transforming it, you begin to spot new creative connections.

10. The Roman Empire Rule – Historians now recognize the Roman Empire fell in 476 – but it wasn’t acknowledged by Roman society until many generations later. If you wait for the media to inform you, you’ll either be wrong or too late.

11. Physics Razor – If it doesn’t deny the law of physics, assume it’s possible. Do not confuse society’s current lack of knowledge – with this knowledge being impossible to attain. E.g. The smartphone seems impossible to someone from the 1800s – but it was possible, they just had a lack of knowledge.

12. Skinner’s Law – If procrastinating, you have 2 ways to solve it:

• Make the pain of inaction > Pain of action
• Make the pleasure of action > Pleasure of inaction

13. Network Razor – If you have 2 quality people who would benefit from an intro to one another, always do it. Networks don’t divide as you share them, they multiply.

14. Gell-Mann Razor – Assume every media article contains a % of false information. If that is important, then sandbox the article from your worldview until you’ve:

• Seen primary sources
• Spoken to 3 domain experts

15. Taleb’s Surgeon – If presented with two equal candidates for a role, pick the one with the least amount of charisma. The uncharismatic one has got there despite their lack of charisma. The charismatic one has got there with the aid of their charisma.

PS – I have found that many times mental models help me avoid bad ideas, people, scenarios or investments rather than choose one.

As our beloved capitalist monk and philosopher, Charlie Munger once said “all I want to know is where I’m going to die, so that I’ll never go there.”

RIP dear Charlie

I think bonus shares also affect future dividend yield. This was something mentioned by Arvind Datta on twitter but I might be wrong here.

So say company had 100 public shares with share price at 100 and issue dividend of Rs 5. Then dividend yield is 5%. Now lets say die to bonus , the shares become 200. Now assuming company still has same dividend pool, it would need to divided amongst 200 shares making the yoeld 2.5%.

Let me know if this sounds correct.

@Pragnesh : I understand that business has competitive advantages. However, hardly any communication from the management on the direction or vision of the business although past performance had been good.

How do you overcome the information void?

Six months lock in is post the listing.

What I have discovered is that selling the unlisted shares may be a pain.