Will it be taken by minda? In that case that willl happen to the minority shareholders
Posts in category Value Pickr
Caplin Point Laboratories (11-11-2023)
Capex budget: 600 cr
To be completed by Q4 FY 25. That is March 25.
By Jan 2026 everything is operationalized.
Total net block = 300 (before) + 600 = 900 Cr
Latest net fixed asset turns = 5.25
Total revenue generated by Jan 2026= 900*5.25= 4725 cr ( current 1500 cr).( 3.15x~3x)
Net margin latest = 25%
Net profit Jan 2026= 1181 Cr. (Current= 400 Cr)( 2.9x~3x)
CAGR for 4 (conservative estimate) yrs after tripled profits= 114/4 = 28.5 % CAGR approx
Is this a fair way to estimate future revenue & earnings potential? If it does work out then, would it be fair to also estimate that the share price will at least triple if things go as planned and PE remains stable or improves?
Time technoplast (11-11-2023)
My impressions from Q2 FY24 results & ppt:
Company had given a deadline of end-Sep 2023 to complete the whole overseas sale for the last 8-9 months atleast, and clarified that 2/3 (US, SE Asia, SW Asia/Middle East) were in advanced discussions in last conference call. Looks like they need more time to close this. US business is going through headwinds, so one can speculate if selling US business is problematic.
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CNG Cascades – 225 crores order book for next 6-8 months – ~170+ crores revenue possible in next 2 quarters for FY24. No other competition, but noises from BHEL-Indraprasta Gas MoU to develop CNG Cascades esp for hydrogen applications. Indraprasta Gas is a Time Techno customer.
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LPG – going on BAU mode with IOC repeat order (~7.6L) utilizing most realizable capacity of 1M. They made ~231 cr in FY22, ~190 cr in FY23 and may be clock ~200+ cr in FY24. Looks like IOC order is high volume but less profitable as company hasn’t increased LPG capacity in last few years. Supreme Industries has got similar order from IOC, but not sure if Supreme competes with Time Techno by supplying to other PSU/private LPG companies
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IBC – Expanding big time – company has IBC capacity directly and through subsidiaries both in India and all over the world (Type-4 LPG and CNG Cascade capacities are only in India as far as I know). Pyramid Technoplast which recently IPOd is a direct competitor here, and also expanding capacity judiciously.
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FY24 remaining order book of 200 cr for pipes – these are good top line numbers, but this is less profitable and probably more working capital intensive too… cash flow might also take longer if this is related to govt contracts.
Overall a lot better than expected Q2 results, hopefully will lead to 650-675 crores FY24 EBITDA.
Management is clearly executing well on value-added products revenue/profitability… fingers crossed on their 17% EBITDA goal within 3 years… the goal was for 17% including overseas business, but will be easier to achieve with just India business.
Discl: Invested since 2018, added more till 2022, big part of portfolio.
IDFC First Bank Limited (11-11-2023)
Hi Aayush, where did you get this data?
NGL Fine-Chem (Animal Health + Human Health + Vet Formulations) (11-11-2023)
Excellent result by NGL Finechem -very conservative promoter ,whether in good times or bad times he speaks rationally but investors discounts him on either side and extrapolates results
NGL_Q2FY24.pdf (907.7 KB)
Discl:Biased bcos of my holdings ,please do your own due diligence
Campus Activewear – betting on the India Consumption Theme (11-11-2023)
Hi @praveen_potnuru
I started my investment journey in 2022 and I don’t do trading. I’m still learning basic stuff. I use campus shoes and the quality is good. All peers are trading nearly at the same valuation and Campus was trading at 52 weeks low. I thought 70 PE was normal for this industry. This PE might be normal only for earning growing stock but Campus is not growing clearly.
My average price was ~300. I thought that this quarter would be a good one, almost all other footwear company’s quarter is really good if compared to Campus. The moment I came to know about the red flags (COO resignation and Insider Trading), I was already down by 6-7%. I regret not selling at that point. In short, it was a mistake and learning for me.
I still believe in the company but something is not right at the moment in the company as numbers don’t lie. There is a high possibility that the next quarters won’t be good enough and we might see a lot of further correction in this stock so I simply exited with ~20% loss to save remaining capital 
TGV SRAAC erstwhile Sree Rayalseema Alkali (11-11-2023)
Net loss in this quarter after removing one time reversal of previous expenses .
Eris Lifesciences – 100% of sales from India Pharma Market (11-11-2023)
Margin revival continues for Eris. As they turnaround acquisitions, their appetite for newer acquistions keep increasing, with them now acquiring nephrology and dermatology brands from Biocon at 3.7x EV/sales. They are confident of increasing margins of acquired portfolio from 20% to 30% in a years’ time. Concall notes below.
FY24Q2
- FY24 guidance: 2000-2100 cr. sales, 700-710 cr. EBITDA (30% growth), 410-415 cr. PAT (without Biocon acquisition)
- Capital allocation strategy: focus on using operating cashflows to expand into newer therapies through acquisitions (Strides gave them Nephrology, Oaknet gave them Dermatology, Biocon adds to Nephrology and Dermatology)
- Acquired 12 brands in Nephrology (Organ transplant focused power brands like Tacrograf and Renodapt; 65 cr. sales; 40 MRs) and 9 brands in Medical dermatology (Psoriasis and Atopic Dermatitis; 35 cr. sales; 50 MRs; Psorid is 25 cr. brand) from Biocon for 366 cr. (including working capital; 3.7x sales; 280 cr. will be from debt). Total personnel: 90 MRs + 30 others. Very high MR productivity (9 lakhs YPM). Will reach 30% EBITDA margin in FY25 from 20-22% currently
- Amortization will be 17-18 cr. annual amortization (20 year window)
- Psoriasis market is 1100 cr. (2-year growth of 20%). This acquisition makes them second largest in psoriasis with 11% market share
- Nephrology market is 3000 cr. growing at 11%
- When there is personnel acquisition (and not only brand acquisition), then leakage of sales is lower
- In Glenmark acquisition, have reached 100% of sales but for Dr Reddy have only managed to get to 90-92% by Q2
- Organic growth: 7-8% (vs covered market growth of 2.5% in H1)
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Launches
o 2 FDCs in oral diabetes approved (Gliclazide-Dapagliflozin, Gliclazide-Sitagliptin) and will be launched this quarter. Both are first to market
o Launched 2 “at-risk” products (Linares & FCM) in Q2
o Launched 4 products in dermatology in Q2 (Hydroheal, Nova, Efatop Hydra, Crisanew)
o Pipeline increased to 14 from 10 in Q1: Added 2 FDCs in gynecology, 1 first time to Indian launch in cardiovascular and 1 in respiratory therapy in FY25 - Their 50 cr.+ brands reduced from 15 in Q1 to 13 in Q2. 100 cr.+ brands increased from 4 in Q1 to 5 in Q2
- Will start commercial production in dermatology in Q4FY24
- Insulin: 10 cr. sales in Q2FY24; (-1.8 cr.) EBITDA loss
- Market coverage: 83% in diabetes, 54% in cardiovascular, 50% in dermatology
Disclosure: Invested (position size here, no transactions in last-30 days)
Campus Activewear – betting on the India Consumption Theme (11-11-2023)
Hi Ahmed.
I agrees with your decision to sell. But what made you buy in the first place?
Even at current price, it’s trading 70x 2023 profit.
Globus Spirits (11-11-2023)
1.Like Radico Khaitan, they are also trying for Prestige and above segment but have not yet created their own market. In the Value segment market, pressure on margin still exists.
2.Management seems to be comfortable with revenue from sub-contracting work for Diageo , Bacardi and bulk Alco.
3. Ready to drink segment: very early-stage funding and small market as compared to Alco market.