Another point, isn’t HDFC & ICICI more attractive than IDFC basis ROE/EPS/PE?
Posts in category Value Pickr
IDFC First Bank Limited (29-10-2023)
On growth, what i understand is that the bank is still cautious in a increasing lending especially on corporate loan book. I’m waiting for the investor call.
Ramkrishna Forgings (28-10-2023)
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Total production capacity to be 260,000 ton per annum by the end of FY24
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20% Volume Growth is achievable based on recent order Wins which will start delivery from H2 FY24.
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Aiming FY25 Debt to Edita as 1.
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30% revenue to be Non-Automotive by FY25. (This will Improve margins with supplies to Mining, Earth Moving Farm & Gen. Engg)
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TSUYO acquisition would provide a good platform for selling a complete EV Drive Train i.e. Motor Controller, Motor, Differential Assembly, Gears and axles.
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JMT Auto, TCIL could materially start contributing from FY25.
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FY26, Titagarh JV to start adding to topline. I think with a capacity of 2,00,000 Forged Wheels per annum, at 60-70% Utilization i.e. 150000 wheels, 800-900 Cr can be further added in the Top Line, considering 51% Share from JV)
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Margin Improvement of 100 bps every year till 2026 is very much on cards and achievable.
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I would like to see if they are able to bring Debt/EBITA at 1 by FY25 and how quickly Management is able to Ramp up JMT Auto.
While other Forging companies showing weak signs of Order Input, RK Forge is gaining market share, mainly International.
IDFC First Bank Limited (28-10-2023)
The loan book has increased by Rs 10,000+ cr QonQ. The NIM % is maintained at 6.32%. Provisions have increased marginally in-line with the loan book. Still, I wonder why the pre-operative profit has not increased? Any idea?
If I see the segmental results, the treasury income has dropped significantly from Rs 203 cr to Rs 89 cr, QonQ. This seem to have affected the profit numbers. Any idea what this constitutes and reason for such a sharp drop? Is it going to be lumpy or unpredictable in future? I believe a person who knows the banking industry can explain it.
Otherwise the numbers are as expected. Faster growth is desired, but without sacrificing the quality of loan book.
IDFC First Bank Limited (28-10-2023)
Did the maths, q on q numbers on growth metrics are also very strong which is the main thing. The main thing to watch out is A. Whether deposits are rising. B. Whether loan book growth is sustained. C. Whether asset quality numbers are maintained. Rest all matters like pbt pat etc. fall into place automatically. So could be for other reasons.
On a separate note, the concern I have is lack of growth. Other banks seem to be growing much better. Even large private sector banks 7 times rhe size are growing at 20%, this bank is stuck at 25%. Expect better than this for an early stage bank.
Sonata Software A Turnaround Story (28-10-2023)
Good Sets of Results from Sonata Sofware in a tough environment.
The company is making key bets, especially in the AI and generative AI space. Sonata aims to lead the AI wave from the front with its AI power solutions of Harmoni.AI and we expect that to be a 25% of our revenue in two to three years’ time from now.
- Dividend of Rs. 7 per share ( Record Date: 1. 7th November, 2023)
- bonus issue of 1 (one) equity share for every 1 (one) equity
Vision of the company:
Deals in Pipeline:
IDFC First Bank Limited (28-10-2023)
Around 15-16 crore shares will get extinguished at the time of merger, so number of existing shares of the bank after merger will be around 690 crores and not 670 crores…
If we consider shareholders fund of 30700 crores and reduction of shares by 16 crores then that will raise BV per share from 43.5 to 44.5 i.e. 1 rs…rest of the 9 rs. will need to come from profits…adding 9 rs. in next 12 months seems impossible considering flat QoQ performance…
Krsnaa Diagnostics – what is the diagnosis? (28-10-2023)
JM Financial gave a target of Rs. 1050.
https://vid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2023/September/KRSNAA_Update_1Sep23.pdf
Coromandel International Limited (28-10-2023)
Positive news for fertilizer industries
Praveen’s Information Attic (Obervations, Lessons, Thoughts) (28-10-2023)
Also, let’s say we invest in 25 stocks. No one can know that the company you invest 1% would become 15% of your portfolio while the company you invest 5% of your portfolio will not budge. Also, your multi-bagger stock could be a company that was being sold at 50 p/e at the time of purchase rather than a low p/e stock. All one can do is try to be rational by buying when the opportunity arises in the form of a market correction or a correction n that particular stock or some capacity expansion that is ignored by the market.
While it would be good to have all stock purchases at market lows, this is harder than averaging down on a good company! This way I am not missing out on some growth. A good example is 3M. It has always been an expensive stock. We would miss out on say 200% return because we are going after 1000% returns which are rarer.
In the end, I guess each investor has their own style of investing. As long as it is as rational as possible, we should be fine!