@Anand_Dharsandia

My long term holdings usually have very strong conviction based on fundamental research. So in those names, since my holding periods are more (1-3 years) as compared to the short to medium term bets, (of a few weeks to few months) I tend to give these positions long ropes. During the stock’s journey in a 2-3 year period, there will be atleast a couple of occasions when the situation will be close to a technical stop loss being triggered. But in these fundamental picks I tend to rely more on the business performance. Exits if at all are based more on fundamental performance. Unless it is trimming these positions based on some sharp run ups where I feel rally is not sustainable and stock price will need to rest/correct for some time. And the capital is needed elsewhere.

Recent example is of Usha Martin where the head and shoulders pattern I highlighted in the technical analysis thread indicated a trim/sell, but since I feel confident about the business prospects of the company, I am okay to bear the temporary pain of seeing stock price go down. Here I had figured out that according to various moving avg supports, 30 WEMA around 290 , 200 dema around 270 and below that, 252 which is 50% retracement level to previous strong rally were the levels to watch. Today stock price took support around the retracement level mentioned above. Today was again a big bar with big volumes day. These kind of findings are usually seen after a strong rally near peak, or after sharp fall near bottom. If this support indeed holds and stock price rallies, today’s bar will qualify as an important daily bar on daily chart. 308-310 is a gap area on daily charts. disc : holding. added more today.

Nice to hear that. I wrote a piece on SONACOMS just a while back: Sona Comstar Poised for Growth Amidst India’s Electric Vehicle Revolution

I found this pick usually CausalityArrow which filters investible news using AI and finds stocks that are in tune with current events and macroeconomic factors. It also ranks the impacted stocks using a mix of relatedness to the news and some company fundamentals. Think of it as Screener from a News perspective. It however finds non-trivial causal relationships. It is currently in beta development stage so there may be a few rough edges. Any feedback would be much appreciated.

@Maheshcm – Yes, you are right. Allygrow isn’t at that level of expertise as their rev/employee also indicates. AllyGrow is 16 lakhs/emp and AllyGram I think was 25 lakhs/emp if I remember right, as compared to KPIT’s 40 lakh/emp or so.

@ankit_tripathi – If I remember right from the AGM, this is a one-time hit for something that happened in the past (dont quite remember)

Some broad market views I was thinking of today.

Nifty, Monthly

Getting back into the wedge. The month of course isn’t over yet and we have 3 more trading days. If Nifty manages to recover to 19300 odd levels, we could have a strong rally next month. If not, and if next month tests 18300 levels (bottom of the wedge) unsuccessfully, we could have a rising wedge breakdown, which is a common pattern. In fact these sort of rising wedges are bearish setups. Similar setup on the weekly with just 1 trading day left (tomorrow) shows this bearishness is more or less likely, barring a miracle

Midcap 100, Weekly, Similar distribution and breakdown on the Nifty Midcap 100 index as well. 7 weeks of sideways movement has given off this week.

Smallcap 100, Weekly – This was the original chart I shared on Sept 1st week. There is confirmation of the breakdown this week though this went sideways for 7 weeks since my post.

The microcap chart is the best of the lot. It is yet to even take support on 20 WMA.

Liquidity clearly is strong in the micro/smallcap space going by the relative strength they have shown. The concern I have is that, these can catch up much faster to large/mids when they start showing weakness.

The past 7 weeks offered some good bets which had valuation comfort like Shilchar, Garware, Goodluck, PDS, Ceinsys which worked out well (Swelect, Mazda which didn’t) but I am not comfortable initiating fresh positions if market conditions deteriorate further now that there is confirmation, as compared to my speculation in Sept 1st week when bullish fervour was high. We will have clarity once week and month finishes. It is strange though culling a pf which is doing so phenomenally well.

Disc: Back to 35% cash and will reduce further once I have weekly/monthly confirmation. Still have positions in all names mentioned but at reduced allocations and bullish to that extent

Results are good, GRM is at 10 dollars for Q2, the only concern for Q3 will be the GRM as GRM have dropped to 2 to 4 dollars so company needs to have less inventory days that will mitigate the risk of lower GRMs.
Share price have support at 500 levels hopefully in coming days sentiment in markets turns bullish then we can expect good uptick in the share price.