Some relevant data as given in National Rail Plan
Figures (INR cr)
Posts in category Value Pickr
Edelweiss Financial Services (24-09-2023)
It shouldn’t list below 3k as per the latest q1 result ,expecting around 35 pe.
Edelweiss Financial Services (24-09-2023)
Assuming 123cr pat for the 1st quarter, it turns to be 492cr for the year.
Delta Corp – A huge but risky opportunity (24-09-2023)
Income tax ,gst department is always meant to harass ,loot people. They always think in terms of target, how can they get 5x-10x tax this year. If these would be the situation, none of the industries would survive in india. Its bound to happen in all regulatory industries i.e. brokerages (angelone, zerodha, NSE) , banks, liquor, defence. One always have to think twice in investing in these industries as risk can come in form of regulation change , gst etc . as they are bound to receive gov. poking every now and then. In this regard, Chanakya, in a very smart way, quoted the example of the honey bee, saying that: “Governments should collect taxes like a honeybee, which sucks just the right amount of honey from the flower without causing any harm.”
Knowledge Marine – Positioned to Double Revenue with No CapEx (24-09-2023)
Anybody tracking this now? A lot of things have occurred since the last message posted. Ashish Kacholia and Group entering. Winning orders until their Bahrain Business which won 360 cr worth of orders for next 5 years and their investor call where the CFO is extremely bullish while their CEO remains conservative (both being Husband-Wife) and the management’s trend to understate and overdelivering continues. Share also tripled in last 1 year.
Till the point it received Bahrain orders it was very overvalued and at CMP I Still feel it is overvalued. Any views on discounting the future income and getting valuations based on that?
Disc: Now holding a very small quantity. Sold major chunk in October 2022 and Jan 2023. Holding the current quantity since June 2021.
IDFC First Bank Limited (24-09-2023)
Totally agree. I’ve seen it personally. I applied to transfer my existing loan (LAP) from another bank. Even after having a perfect track record of paying the EMIs, IDFC First bank rejected my application twice because my employer profile was not good enough. In second rejection, I came to know from a bank representative “unofficially” that my employer company has been posting losses for 2 years and hence my loan applications are getting rejected by the bank.
Although I felt bad because I wanted bank to get benefitted from my loan (fee income + interest), but as a long-term investor, I also got more convinced by knowing that the bank is not compromising on credit quality as per their standards.
Disc: Invested heavily since 2019 for my target of 200+ in 5-6 years (delayed by around 1 year due to COVID).
Delta Corp – A huge but risky opportunity (24-09-2023)
I just want to ask and add a logical perspective.
Assuming someone with ₹10,000 buys casino chips at their Casino
Then s/he would get chips worth ₹7,812.50 (₹2,187.50 being the 28% GST component)
Now the very next minute the same person returns and demand refunds for this purchase
So now
Situation 1) the casino returns only ₹7,812.50 to this person and not the GST component
Or situation 2) the casino returns the whole ₹10,000 amount which is inclusive of GST.
What the Delta Corp has explained to its investors on Concall is that it follows the 2nd Option, that it refunds the Whole ₹10,000 inclusive of GST (because here the exchange is merely a transaction and not actual the supply)
So the GST shall be applicable only on the Net Revenue they earn after giving refunds (or prize winnings) to these customers, so this is called Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) and this is a standard practice which is followed worldwide.
Now the IT department is asking the GST dues based on the 1st Situation.
That is if the customer asks for refund the customer wont get the GST portion back, and based on that logic they have demanded such a huge amount.
Based on this understanding I don’t think IT department would ever succeed in their case against the company.
And anyways if they ever succeed how can they expect to recover Approx 17k Crores worth of dues when company’s net worth itself if 2.5K crores and market cap of 4.5K crores.
(Company also faced similar 6K crore tax notice in 2019 and it successfully defended itself)
So as warren Buffet says be greedy when others are fearful, so is this time to be greedy in this stock, when the price falls on Monday 25/09/2023 ?
SKM Egg Products – thinking out of the shell (24-09-2023)
The data is little dated but from Ministry of Commerce website – it seems that dried egg powder volumes in April-Jul 2023 period have declined by -21% YoY in volume terms (‘000 kgs) and in INR lakh terms declined by around 2% YoY.
I have pasted the data below.
Secondly, the prices in US retail / wholesale level – although directly cannot be extrapolated to our market – but it highlights that shell egg prices have dropped drastically from around >$5 per dozen to around $1 per dozen in Jan-Sept’23 period – indicating that the pricing pressure is downwards for eggs.
| Dated: 24/9/2023 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantity in Thousands | |||||||||
| (F) Final | |||||||||
| (R) Revised Final | |||||||||
| * ITC HS Code of the Commodity is either dropped or re-allocated and the unit of the commodity may be changed from April 2023. | |||||||||
| S.No. | HSCode | Commodity | Unit | Jul 2022 (R) | Jul 2023 (F) | %Growth | Apr-Jul 2022 (R) | Apr-Jul 2023 (F) | %Growth |
| 1 | 4089100 | BIRDS EGGS NOT IN SHELL DRIED | KGS | 422.3 | 279.21 | -33.88 | 1,871.01 | 1,473.34 | -21.25 |
| * ITC HS Code of the Commodity is either dropped or re-allocated and the unit of the commodity may be changed from April 2023. | |||||||||
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| S.No. | HSCode | Commodity | Jul 2022 (R) | Jul 2023 (F) | %Growth | Apr-Jul 2022 (R) | Apr-Jul 2023 (F) | %Growth | |
| 1 | 4089100 | BIRDS EGGS NOT IN SHELL DRIED | 2,039.64 | 1,461.51 | -28.34 | 8,622.19 | 8,396.29 | -2.62 |
HBL POWER SYSTEMS: Booting-up for the Race of the Century (24-09-2023)
HBL Power FY 23 annual report attached. Very detailed explanation of its businesses and their prospects. Worth a read for those invested and those wanting to research it.
HBL AR FY23.pdf (3.9 MB)
Glenmark Life Sciences (24-09-2023)
Sharing here the view of Sajal Kapoor on GLS from Twitter
Healthcare Sector Results review with Sajal Kapoor & Aditya Khemka
Watch from 58 minutes on the timeline.
Hope this helps
Disclosure – Invested @ 500 levels and confused about Hold / Partial / Total sell ?!
Regards,
dr.vikas