Hi Nitya, i was going through dhruv consultancy. I note it has 43 crore of unbilled revenue vs. 80 crores revenue. Any color on it?
Posts in category Value Pickr
Grauer and Weil Limited- 101 out of 100? (01-09-2023)
Very nice summary !!. Thanks for the efforts and sharing.
Just one question – Did the management looked like having “hunger for growth” over the next 2-3 years? They have been around for very long time and always give a feeling of laid back company. Does this seem to be different in the body language during the AGM?
Regards,
Nikhil
Disc: invested – Small position
Jindal saw – Another beneficiary of India’s growth story (01-09-2023)
| Narration | Mar-14 | Mar-15 | Mar-16 | Mar-17 | Mar-18 | Mar-19 | Mar-20 | Mar-21 | Mar-22 | Mar-23 | Trailing | Best Case | Worst Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 6,655.85 | 8,207.83 | 7,702.58 | 7,070.12 | 8,506.62 | 12,117.00 | 11,627.04 | 10,663.64 | 13,298.42 | 17,867.80 | 18,799.55 | 24,007.23 | 20,047.96 |
| Expenses | 6,014.34 | 7,253.88 | 6,979.40 | 6,393.18 | 7,465.90 | 10,645.12 | 10,116.24 | 9,421.52 | 11,898.98 | 16,190.55 | 16,765.05 | 21,409.15 | 17,978.06 |
| Operating Profit | 641.51 | 953.95 | 723.18 | 676.94 | 1,040.72 | 1,471.88 | 1,510.80 | 1,242.12 | 1,399.44 | 1,677.25 | 2,034.50 | 2,598.08 | 2,069.89 |
| Other Income | 26.18 | 75.87 | 135.69 | 330.35 | 24.05 | 514.97 | -2.67 | 208.82 | 155.14 | 141.12 | 159.35 | – | – |
| Depreciation | 321.28 | 335.48 | 327.94 | 337.41 | 363.48 | 396.28 | 421.67 | 458.87 | 472.99 | 470.78 | 494.20 | 494.20 | 494.20 |
| Interest | 391.97 | 605.64 | 678.85 | 568.63 | 579.15 | 615.23 | 619.85 | 492.79 | 460.12 | 637.59 | 637.12 | 637.12 | 637.12 |
| Profit before tax | -45.56 | 88.70 | -147.92 | 101.25 | 122.14 | 975.34 | 466.61 | 499.28 | 621.47 | 710.00 | 1,062.53 | 1,466.76 | 938.57 |
| Tax | 54.66 | 116.11 | -67.72 | 62.74 | 133.12 | 211.62 | 5.34 | 171.54 | 245.59 | 267.24 | 360.63 | 34% | 34% |
| Net profit | -85.54 | -14.47 | -40.16 | 113.77 | 178.50 | 850.16 | 554.75 | 318.83 | 411.75 | 632.40 | 890.69 | 968.93 | 620.01 |
| EPS | -3.10 | -0.50 | -1.32 | 3.56 | 5.58 | 26.58 | 17.35 | 9.97 | 12.88 | 19.77 | 27.86 | 30.30 | 19.39 |
| Price to earning | -17.24 | -124.40 | -27.70 | 23.44 | 21.28 | 3.25 | 2.64 | 7.44 | 7.00 | 7.38 | 12.06 | 12.06 | 6.63 |
| Price | 53.38 | 62.07 | 36.53 | 83.40 | 118.75 | 86.40 | 45.80 | 74.15 | 90.10 | 145.90 | 336.05 | 365.57 | 128.52 |
| RATIOS: | |||||||||||||
| Dividend Payout | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 28.11% | 21.50% | 7.52% | 11.53% | 20.06% | 15.53% | 15.17% | |||
| OPM | 9.64% | 11.62% | 9.39% | 9.57% | 12.23% | 12.15% | 12.99% | 11.65% | 10.52% | 9.39% | 10.82% | ||
| TRENDS: | 10 YEARS | 7 YEARS | 5 YEARS | 3 YEARS | RECENT | BEST | WORST | ||||||
| Sales Growth | 11.60% | 12.77% | 16.00% | 15.40% | 34.36% | 34.36% | 11.60% | ||||||
| OPM | 10.93% | 11.11% | 11.13% | 10.32% | 10.82% | 10.82% | 10.32% | ||||||
| Price to Earning | 10.56 | 10.56 | 6.63 | 8.47 | 12.06 | 12.06 | 6.63 | ||||||
| Source – screener |
Risk Analysis –
Any major incremental cash support towards subsidiaries/group companies further straining its leverage
• Sizable reduction in order book position.
• Any major debt-funded capex or acquisition resulting in deterioration of TOL/TNW beyond 1 times.
• Any adverse outcome from the ongoing litigation between NTPC and JITF resulting in further support provided to JITF, thereby impacting JSAW’s leverage and debt coverage indicators.
Disclosure – I am invested in the company
KRBL- The King of Basmati rice (01-09-2023)
Also, I was assuming KRBL can sell it to subsidiary, and then resell it to end customer. Obviously subsidiary might take a loss which they might rationalise at group level.
Is that possible ?
Anyway it seems the impact is very low and transient.
RACL Geartech Limited (01-09-2023)
RACL Q1, FY 24 concall highlights –
Company Infra –
02 manufacturing locations
03 warehouses in Europe
01 corporate office at Noida
Products –
Transmission gears and shafts, sub assemblies, precision machined parts, Chassis parts, Industrial gears
Product Application areas –
2,3 & 4 wheelers, CVs, Agri equipment, Off road vehicles, Industrial gears
Q1 outcomes –
Sales – 89 vs 80 cr
EBITDA – 22 vs 18 cr
PAT – 11 vs 8 cr
70:30 pc sales breakup – Exports:Domestic sales
Q1 is generally the weakest Qtr-due holidays in Europe
Company’s GMs are industry leading as the complexity of products and value addition by RACL are high
Company is already supplying to most premium bikes in India. Company is the sole supplier to TVS X- electric scooter
Also going to be the sole supplier to a new super bike to be launched in India by next month
In medium term, company to maintain EBITDA margins between 22-26 pc band
Even the Yokes and Suspension parts produced by the company are very high on complexity and value add
At present none of the Yokes are used in Motorcycles in India. These are very high end Yokes being used in European 2 wheelers
3 yrs back, company’s share of revenues from 4 wheelers was zero. This yr, company hopes to do 10 pc revenues from 4 wheelers
Company is only supplying to high end OEMs like BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Aston Martin etc
Value of company’s transmission parts / TVS X electric vehicle is aprox Rs 10000
Post Covid, Company’s order wins have increased in Europe due China + 1 strategy being followed by OEMs
Intend to keep growing the company at > 20 pc CAGR for the foreseeable future
Aim to hit topline of 470-500 cr in FY 24
Company likely to win one big project in a new segment. Details to be known by next Qtr
Capex projection for FY-24 to 27 at 250 cr
Min asset turn expected on this capex is 1.3-1.4 with an ultimate goal of hitting asset turn of 2
Disc: holding
RACL Geartech Limited (01-09-2023)
RACL Q1, FY 24 concall highlights –
Company Infra –
02 manufacturing locations
03 warehouses in Europe
01 corporate office at Noida
Products –
Transmission gears and shafts, sub assemblies, precision machined parts, Chassis parts, Industrial gears
Product Application areas –
2,3 & 4 wheelers, CVs, Agri equipment, Off road vehicles, Industrial gears
Q1 outcomes –
Sales – 89 vs 80 cr
EBITDA – 22 vs 18 cr
PAT – 11 vs 8 cr
70:30 pc sales breakup – Exports:Domestic sales
Q1 is generally the weakest Qtr-due holidays in Europe
Company’s GMs are industry leading as the complexity of products and value addition by RACL are high
Company is already supplying to most premium bikes in India. Company is the sole supplier to TVS X- electric scooter
Also going to be the sole supplier to a new super bike to be launched in India by next month
In medium term, company to maintain EBITDA margins between 22-26 pc band
Even the Yokes and Suspension parts produced by the company are very high on complexity and value add
At present none of the Yokes are used in Motorcycles in India. These are very high end Yokes being used in European 2 wheelers
3 yrs back, company’s share of revenues from 4 wheelers was zero. This yr, company hopes to do 10 pc revenues from 4 wheelers
Company is only supplying to high end OEMs like BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Aston Martin etc
Value of company’s transmission parts / TVS X electric vehicle is aprox Rs 10000
Post Covid, Company’s order wins have increased in Europe due China + 1 strategy being followed by OEMs
Intend to keep growing the company at > 20 pc CAGR for the foreseeable future
Aim to hit topline of 470-500 cr in FY 24
Company likely to win one big project in a new segment. Details to be known by next Qtr
Capex projection for FY-24 to 27 at 250 cr
Min asset turn expected on this capex is 1.3-1.4 with an ultimate goal of hitting asset turn of 2
Disc: holding
Ranvir’s Portfolio (01-09-2023)
RACL Q1, FY 24 concall highlights –
Company Infra –
02 manufacturing locations
03 warehouses in Europe
01 corporate office at Noida
Products –
Transmission gears and shafts, sub assemblies, precision machined parts, Chassis parts, Industrial gears
Product Application areas –
2,3 & 4 wheelers, CVs, Agri equipment, Off road vehicles, Industrial gears
Q1 outcomes –
Sales – 89 vs 80 cr
EBITDA – 22 vs 18 cr
PAT – 11 vs 8 cr
70:30 pc sales breakup – Exports:Domestic sales
Q1 is generally the weakest Qtr-due holidays in Europe
Company’s GMs are industry leading as the complexity of products and value addition by RACL are high
Company is already supplying to most premium bikes in India. Company is the sole supplier to TVS X- electric scooter
Also going to be the sole supplier to a new super bike to be launched in India by next month
In medium term, company to maintain EBITDA margins between 22-26 pc band
Even the Yokes and Suspension parts produced by the company are very high on complexity and value add
At present none of the Yokes are used in Motorcycles in India. These are very high end Yokes being used in European 2 wheelers
3 yrs back, company’s share of revenues from 4 wheelers was zero. This yr, company hopes to do 10 pc revenues from 4 wheelers
Company is only supplying to high end OEMs like BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Aston Martin etc
Value of company’s transmission parts / TVS X electric vehicle is aprox Rs 10000
Post Covid, Company’s order wins have increased in Europe due China + 1 strategy being followed by OEMs
Intend to keep growing the company at > 20 pc CAGR for the foreseeable future
Aim to hit topline of 470-500 cr in FY 24
Company likely to win one big project in a new segment. Details to be known by next Qtr
Capex projection for FY-24 to 27 at 250 cr
Min asset turn expected on this capex is 1.3-1.4 with an ultimate goal of hitting asset turn of 2
Disc: holding
Ranvir’s Portfolio (01-09-2023)
RACL Q1, FY 24 concall highlights –
Company Infra –
02 manufacturing locations
03 warehouses in Europe
01 corporate office at Noida
Products –
Transmission gears and shafts, sub assemblies, precision machined parts, Chassis parts, Industrial gears
Product Application areas –
2,3 & 4 wheelers, CVs, Agri equipment, Off road vehicles, Industrial gears
Q1 outcomes –
Sales – 89 vs 80 cr
EBITDA – 22 vs 18 cr
PAT – 11 vs 8 cr
70:30 pc sales breakup – Exports:Domestic sales
Q1 is generally the weakest Qtr-due holidays in Europe
Company’s GMs are industry leading as the complexity of products and value addition by RACL are high
Company is already supplying to most premium bikes in India. Company is the sole supplier to TVS X- electric scooter
Also going to be the sole supplier to a new super bike to be launched in India by next month
In medium term, company to maintain EBITDA margins between 22-26 pc band
Even the Yokes and Suspension parts produced by the company are very high on complexity and value add
At present none of the Yokes are used in Motorcycles in India. These are very high end Yokes being used in European 2 wheelers
3 yrs back, company’s share of revenues from 4 wheelers was zero. This yr, company hopes to do 10 pc revenues from 4 wheelers
Company is only supplying to high end OEMs like BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Aston Martin etc
Value of company’s transmission parts / TVS X electric vehicle is aprox Rs 10000
Post Covid, Company’s order wins have increased in Europe due China + 1 strategy being followed by OEMs
Intend to keep growing the company at > 20 pc CAGR for the foreseeable future
Aim to hit topline of 470-500 cr in FY 24
Company likely to win one big project in a new segment. Details to be known by next Qtr
Capex projection for FY-24 to 27 at 250 cr
Min asset turn expected on this capex is 1.3-1.4 with an ultimate goal of hitting asset turn of 2
Disc: holding
Semiconductor world – CPU/GPU Wars (01-09-2023)
Nice update/summary @kondal_investor
The initial thesis of this thread, for me, was that amd is going to displace intel in the lucrative server space. Everything is now getting skewed because of AI spending is eating out cpu/gpu spending. Never imagined this would happen.
This sinks the infra CPU revenue for AMD this year I think. They are still guiding strong very likely because intel has no answer to amd tco advantage
“Amazon EC2 M7a instances, powered by 4th generation AMD EPYC processors, deliver up to 50% higher performance compared to M6a instances. These instances support AVX3-512, VNNI, and bfloat16, which enable support for more workloads, use Double Data Rate 5 (DDR5) memory to enable high-speed access to data in memory, and deliver 2.25x more memory bandwidth compared to M6a instances.”
Basically, it appears AMD is helping replace tonnes of old CPUs with new genoa/bergamo ones. If only AI had not made the capex re-allocation for all CSPs, this would have been a bumper year for AMD.
Regarding AMD AI effort – they are not really making a target only for Training. Their approach is broad (inference/edge etc). Offcourse that would be the way since they do not have anything that competes with nvda in training right now. Jean Hu mentoned clearly in Deutsche Bank 2023 Technology Conference, that they will get meaningful revenue via mi300x only in 2H2024. By then, we have no idea what the dynamics would be since nvidia would have gotten all the supply bookings they have done with TSMC. Meanwhile, their rocm development appears to be making great strides – Example: Just today – https://github.com/openai/triton/pull/1983. They are working hard.
As of now, AMD is not looking at some explosive growth. AI Poured water on all my predictions. Accordingly, I have decided to move some money to nvidia.
Edit: Talk about diversifying. It crossed my mind an year back to buy nvidia and amd together since one is for CPU and the other is for GPU. But somehow I decided following two companies would not be worth the effort etc. Infact, I was researching 3 companies anyway. Bad decision making from my side,.