We need to see the execution capabilities of the promoter and his team which is the most important metric to track in small caps. If they are able to execute and deliver then the market will surely reward. Till then it’s just the narratives and stories. These narratives must translate into numbers to have next leg of growth in stock price now. Fingers crossed and tracking closely.
Posts in category Value Pickr
KRBL- The King of Basmati rice (31-08-2023)
I would just like to comment on the first point. I think rather than valuation. We should see this buyback as nothing but dividend which would have been tax efficient way for them to receive funds from the company.
Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals (31-08-2023)
On a monthly basis you can track it here: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/051023-interactive-ammonia-price-chart-natural-gas-feedstock-europe-usgc-black-sea
Otherwise, I have been just scouting for articles posting about the latest rate. The latest number I have got is of 390 USD here: Urea, DAP prices rise up to $150 per tonne in the global market – Farmer News: Government Schemes for Farmers, Successful Farmer Stories
KRBL- The King of Basmati rice (31-08-2023)
@raku
Fair enough 
KRBL- The King of Basmati rice (31-08-2023)
There are few other reasons why i sold the stock
- The promoter decision to participate in the buyback ,this only tells me that they also feel that 500 price is a good price to sell there holdings which is only 20% more then the current price.
2)I had invested as an cyclical bet when p.e was less then 8,price to book was around 1 ish and there were a lot of negative sentiments :-one of them being the promoter was sent to jail in the chopper case.With nifty being all time high and the stock facing a lot of tailwinds :ban on rice,pakistan floods,company enjoying peak margins ,stok trading at high pe ,book value historically.
3)currently rice price are at an all time high and this was reflected in there margin erosion in the last few quarters due to high procurement cost of rice.I feel there is chancd that there might be inventory write offs if the price of rice fall next year due to good production.
4)I see this as a cyclical stock as although India gate is great brand but i don’t see people starting to consume more rice then they already do and they don’t have the bargaining power this was evident in them not being able to find a distributor for so long.
5)Poor use of cash ,them trying diversify has only burned cash ,i would have rather saved money to clear more debt or not take debt to procure inventory or backward integrated by buying land to produce there own rice.I feel this buyback is also a way to offload there own holding at a premium price.
I might be wrong prices of rice may rise further but promoter participating in the buyback also did not give me the confidence to hold onto my gains so i decided to sell.
Skipper Ltd., (Power and Water) a moat in making? (31-08-2023)
Excerpts from 4Q23 ECT:
Stocks with Temporary Headwinds (31-08-2023)
Page Industries looks like a good candidate for this. Going through a sales downturn due to Auto Replenishment System implementation, and it can go up again once that is done
Medplus Health Service second largest pharmacy retailer (31-08-2023)
Shares of MedPlus Health are down nearly 7.75% as of 11.30 am on 31/8/2023 after 12.85% equity changes hands. Buyer saller not known as of now.
CNBC-TV18 had earlier reported citing sources that PI Opportunities Fund or Premji Invest, along with Lavender Rose Investment Ltd., some of the early investors in pharmacy chain MedPlus Heath Services plan on paring some of their stake in the company.
Based on the June quarter shareholding pattern, PI Opportunities Fund held a 14.11 percent stake in the company, while Lavender Rose had a 17.24 percent stake.
It seems selling overhang will be there for some more time. PE selling is major issues with co like HomeFirst, Medplus etc.
Stocks with Temporary Headwinds (31-08-2023)
Great idea, this can eventually lead us to discover names which are going through short term headwinds but still well placed for long term success
Hitesh portfolio (31-08-2023)
Hi Hitesh,
I understand you don’t try to time the market &are always fully invested.
I agree entirely that timing the market is futile & have missed a few rallies in the past.
My post is only for educational purposes since I happened to read William J o’Neil’s “How to Make Money in Stocks”. & co-incidentally observed a few things from his Section on the Market direction, which seem to be aligning with the current market.
Observations with respect to the books are as follows-
Market Direction (downtrend)
- Distribution- Focus on 4 to 5 indices (daily price/volume action) that cover most of the market. However, if the observations are true to even 1 index, should be considered good enough evidence to take action.
Things to observe-
i. On one of the days in the uptrend, volume for the market as whole will increase from the day before, but the index itself will show stalling action (a significantly smaller price increase for the day compared with the prior day’s much larger price increase). Heavy volume without a further price increase. The average does not have to close down, however, in most cases, it will.
ii. The market comes into distribution when it is advancing. That is why very few people recognize it|
iii. Normal liquidation near the market peak will usually occur on three to six specific days over a period of four or five weeks.
iv. More accurately the distribution days of four days over two to three weeks are enough. However, this can be up to 6 weeks if the market attempts to rally back.
Currently, I see all of this holds true. (Picture below)
Observations-
1st Distribution day can be seen on 12th July, during the market advance, followed by 2nd, 3rd & 4th, within three weeks. Which should be enough to make the conclusion.
However 5th and 6th distribution is also visible further.
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Rally Attempts after initial decline.
There can be feeble rally attempts. Currently, we can see for many days the market has been opening positively however over the end of the day, it either makes negligible gains or trends marginally negative. -
Other Clues as per the book-
Leading stocks (e.g. Britannia, HUL) have stalled & are trading below their 10-year PE, while shady companies like (e.g. Suzlon/India Bulls Housing/Moreoen Labs) are making spectacular gains.
Recent buys in one’s PF are not moving much in either direction.
Personal observations on Indices disparity (not from the book)
Small Cap/Mid Cap indices are trending higher, irrespective of their larger peers like Nifty50/Nifty Bank. We understand from the Mutual Fund industry there is euphoria in small and Mid-caps currently. I personally see people churning completely from other caps to small caps MFs because of the spectacular gains they can see.
Would you be kind enough to share your thoughts.