Still room left …it seems
Posts in category Value Pickr
IDFC First Bank Limited (17-08-2023)
Just talked again (actually I know him more 20 yrs.)
He said loan amount 84000 personal loan.
EMI 48 months (4yrs)
Installment 2899 per month.
I calculated it’s 27% (repay amount 138900 something)
(I have idfcfb credit card , rate 15 to 18% )
IDFC First Bank Limited (17-08-2023)
Yes I am also in doubt , i will confirm it again.
IDFC First Bank Limited (17-08-2023)
If this is true, it is against the thesis that they don’t sell a product if they cannot sell it to their family members. 27 percent yearly is too much, more than microfinance. Please confirm again, I doubt this is true.
Investment journey of a late starter (17-08-2023)
That’s reasonable way of expressing personal limitations of investment decisions
Yes bank (17-08-2023)
ICICI Direct provides most mediocre advice
Indiabulls Housing – A compounder from here? (17-08-2023)
There are less chances for it to be like DHFL… Their NPA is coming down consistenly…They are very regular in paying their debt i.e interest + principal of NCDs.
They are even making arrangements to prepay.
Their NPA are consistently coming down
On top of that , if anything like that had to happen… it would have been exposed already in the last couple of years…
FII/FPIs are evaluating books for last few years , finding everything okay they are committing 35K additional money
Rest there is no guarantee… anything can happen…Its game of probability.
IDFC First Bank Limited (17-08-2023)
Scuttlebut
I know a person who works as insurance agent.
A year back he took consumer loan for mobile around 35k. He repaid it. After that he was getting calls for loan from idfcfb every week but he said that he didnt need loan so didn’t applied.
Recently he applied for personal loan online at idfcfb around 85k.
Within a day he got amount in bank account. I asked about verification and all other paper work, he said idfcfb person visited his home & job place in same day when he applied online.
Also asked about interest rate he was saying 27% yearly , still he is happy with bank and bank service. He is thinking to continue his relation with bank.
I asked him that after paying this loan will he again interested to take loan from the bank, he said he will surely think as he is happy with the bank.
(Extremely sorry for my english)
Invested : biased
Hindware Home Innovation Ltd on to rapid growth post demerger? (17-08-2023)
Notes from Q4 Earnings calls of FY21, FY22 and FY23:
Overall:
- 3 Divisions: Building Products (Sanitaryware, faucets, tiles, and Pipes), Consumer Appliances (Chimney, Water Heater, and Cooler), and retail (franchise stores + e-commerce site evok.in)
- Brand Hindware owned by the company
- Well established Channels. Possible to introduce new products with minimum incremental cost
- Targeting 18% to 21% sales growth, 14~16% EBITDA margin
- Densifying network in Tier 2, Tier 3, Tier 4, Tier 5
- Acquired the Building Products Manufacturing Business of the erstwhile HSIL for 700 crores. Transaction is effective FY23 | Around 3% EBITDA margin should increase due to the acquisition.
- Advertising budget around 4~5% of sales
- Consumer Appliances Division:
- Started in 2015-16
- Key products: chimney, Water Heater, air coolers and kitchen furniture and fittings
- Overall retailers (1,10,000) | ~ 25% sell company’s categories. Onboarded 35~40% of that.
- Water Heater: JV (Hintastica Private Limited) with Groupe Atlantic, French multinational for heating products and hot water solutions. Will set up a state-of-art facility [600,000 pieces annually] for manufacturing in Telangana| Product’s brand name “Hindware Atlantic”.
- strong #2 player in chimney category with a 20% share
- Seasonality in sales: Q3 peak season for water heater and Q1 peak season for air coolers (65% of the annual demand)
- Present in 1,700 towns and more than 11,000 pin codes across the country | created a network of close to 400+ authorized service centers. In 3-4 years, service centers count will be ~ 1,000
- In kitchen furniture and fittings business, tied up with the world’s third largest kitchen furniture and fittings company FGV(Italy)
- Strategy is to capture the market first. Margins can always follow through. Expect consumer business to be 1000 crores by FY27 (was by FY25 earlier). Expect 7 to 8% EBIT margins in 2 yrs.
- Operating at 3% to 4% EBITDA. But has a potential to do around 10% EBITDA margin in steady state. In the interim, another 2% to 3% expansion should also happen.
- Working to in-source products to reduce the cost as well as working capital.
- Risk: Industry cannot pass on raw material inflation because of the high level of fragmentation. FY23 performance was impacted.
2a. Building products division- Bath ware (Sanitaryware, and faucets):
- Sanitaryware market is growing in upwards of 10%-12%.
- Project business 26%-27%. Retail 72% to 73%
- Aspire to outperform (1.5x) the market in both sanitaryware and in faucets
- Own plants running upwards of 88%-90% in sanitaryware and 65% in Faucet.
- Started getting back lost some channel partners with innovative products, increased marketing spends, and channel friendly policies.
- Prioritized the development of luxury brand Queo
- Bath ware business have an influencer program for plumbers
- In FY24, expect higher growth from faucet than in sanitary, driven by new launches
- In bath ware, looking to unlock about 1% to 1.5% EBITDA expansion over the next 12 to 18 months over fourth quarter margins of 15.3%
- Bath ware: 65% Sanitaryware and 35% faucets. ~10% contribution of volume is imported from China | Plant to reduce China dependence and bring the production in house.
- Working capital improvement ongoing exercise
- Faucets growth rate indicates gaining from both unorganized and organized sector
- Utilization ~90% for sanitaryware and ~45% for faucet. New faucets products are being developed within our plant. Also working on in-sourcing of a lot of Chinese products and outsourcing basic products to the domestic suppliers. Changeover may impact Q1/Q2.
- Risk: input gas prices for sanitaryware
2b. Building products division- Pipes [Brand ‘TRUFLO’]:
- 5 years old (started in FY18) into the market, but able to target Pan India markets.
- Optimistic to reach INR 1,000 crores revenue by FY24.
- Current capacity 48,000 TPA. Roorkee plant should be up by Q2FY25- initial capacity 12,500 tons that can be scaled to 25,000 tons at a lower marginal cost.
- When it comes to CPVC category, we are very strong in Southern, Northern and Western (to a certain extent) part of India, East it is a little bit new.
- Next 2 years, plan to go into the rural markets in existing markets, Central and Eastern India.
- Collaborated with Reliance Worldwide Corporation to introduce and market multilayer composite pipes and push-to-connect fittings under the brand ‘TRUFLO SharkBite.’
- Margins cannot be compared with the peers – new business. plan to grow fast. Constructed 3 plants in short span. CAGR is more than 40%. Employee costs are 4~5% higher than them, which in due course will come down 1% a year. will be at par with competitors in 3~4 Yrs.
- Pipes business shall improve margins by 1% i.e., 11.3%.
- Started manufacturing overhead water tanks at Telangana plant for key southern states.
- Risk: Fall in raw material prices leads to Inventory losses. For e.g., pipes division had inventory loss ~INR 43 crores in FY23.
Debt:
- Total Bank Debt as on Q4FY23 stands at INR 712 crore.
- Not inclined to be debt free. Always be at an optimal level of debt. In the last 4 to 5 years, we have invested our capital for creating new channels in the market. Cheapest cost of funding today for a tax paying and 18~20% ROCE business. Helps faster expansion.
- Debt repayment schedule – repay odd 100 crores of debt in FY24
- Capex funding: ~ 70% debt. Any surplus cash used to settle the working capital.
- Profits primarily used to reduce the working capital. In case surplus, repay the loans.
Capex:
- Pipes capex INR 180 crores
- Sanitaryware and faucets debottlenecking INR 30~40 crores
- Creating brand stores across the country INR 50 ~ 60 crores