I was checking this out, wondering why valuations are still reasonable. Then i looked at NPM. We get a monotonous line across 1, 3, 5, 10 years. It has always been below 5, more like 3-4.
So i am also interested in learning the thesis.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Goodluck India Ltd (16-08-2023)
I was checking this out, wondering why valuations are still reasonable. Then i looked at NPM. We get a monotonous line across 1, 3, 5, 10 years. It has always been below 5, more like 3-4.
So i am also interested in learning the thesis.
Mudit’s Portfolio (Passively Active) (16-08-2023)
I have also sold my Index Funds too.
Only Midcap 150 Index i have retained.
Next candidates for selling : –
- Hindustan Unilever
- DMART
- Infosys
- Balkrishna Industries
- HDFC bank
- Deepak Nitrate or Alkyl AMines ? one among them
- Laurus Labs
Prevest Denpro Limited (16-08-2023)
It’s important to understand that we dentists generally do not purchase dental materials from Amazon, and the price of materials shown on Amazon vs what we get from distributors is pretty different. Yes few of us buy from dentalkart and pinkblue but majority of sales are local distributor driven.
There are 2 reasons for it chiefly. One, a lot of small clinics (60-75 percent of all clinics) do not show a lot of income in their bank statements, and hence purchase through local dealers to pay them in cash. Most dealers can’t buy in cash from bigger distributors so the sales will ultimately reflect but this causes a lot of price cuts in products. Two, A lot of dentists stock up in expos for the year where everything is purchased in cash. And prevest is targeting the economy segment where majority of these trades happen. The point I am making is, big sales can only happen if big local dealers push their products and there should be a number of company salespeople visiting dentists asking them to write the company products. Prevest has a very small sales team doing door to door visits.
Dentists are not incentivised to use any company products (which is a GREAT thing) because there are no prescriptions and no direct sales to patients. They use the ones they like and can afford depending on price points they charge from patients. Hence it’s difficult to get people to change the products they are used to.
Lastly, the companies Prevest mentioned in their DRHP are not their direct competitors. Most of them, except 3M, do not sell resins and sealers etc that are the bigger market of Prevest. Their competition would be pidilite which has entered the same market with a collaboration, has aggressive sales and marketing teams and has kept same stockists and dealers that are with the multi nationals.
A clue as to how the company is targeting increasing local sales can come from the number of salespeople on their roll call. I do not know how to look that up or find their info but that number should be increasing.
Mudit’s Portfolio (Passively Active) (16-08-2023)
Some updates on portfolio : –
Sold –
- Muthoot Finance
- HCL Technologies
- Berger Paints
Bought : –
- Uno Minda
- Mold-Tek-Packaging
Sold –
- All flexicap funds like Parag Parikh etc as well as Focused funds like SBI focused and Quant Active Fund.
Only kept Small cap fund Like SBI small cap , Nippon Small cap and Quant small cap fund.
I have kept only 6% into mutual funds .Remaining 94% into stocks. I am planning to make my portfolio more concentrated. So going forward some more selling will happen.
I will keep updated.
Vedanta Limited – Future Natural Resource Leader (16-08-2023)
How is ROCE higher than ROE with such humongous debt?
screener.in
ROCE: 24
ROE 20
Is this a mistake?
Ranvir’s Portfolio (16-08-2023)
Gujarat Pipavav Q1 concall highlights-
Operations suspended for 16 days due Cyclone Biparjoy
Volume for Q1-
Container load(TEUs)-1.99 lakh, up 7 pc
Dry Bulk(MT)-6.7 lakh, down 28 pc
Liquid(MT)-2.6 lakh, up 29 pc
RORO(units)-14k, up 118 pc(roll on/off ships-import/export of cars)
Financial outcomes –
Revenues- 215 vs 207 cr
EBITDA- 106 vs 112 cr (margins @ 49 vs 54 pc)
PAT- 68 vs 59 cr (due much higher other income)
Added container capacity by-32000 TEUs/yr (added 3 new services)
On RORO-have started handling VLGCs (very large gas containers) wef July
Not taken any tariff hike this yr, nor planing any in Q2
New LPG terminal to go live in May 25
On volumes growth-continued softness
Due power outages in Q1, costs of operations were higher by 7 cr in Q1 which are likely to reverse in Q2. also expect topline to be better in Q2
VLGCs should add to liquid volumes in Q2
Under normal circumstances, Volume growth of Ports should mirror the nominal GDP growth
WRT electronics, Pipavav is more into exports vs imports – bodes well for the company given the Govt’s push
RORO, Liquid cargo growth guidance for this yr at 50 pc, 25 pc YoY
Setting up of Dedicated Freight corridors does help the company wrt uptick in Railway business volumes
Capex for setting up new LPG terminal – 750 cr
Liquid capacity will go upto 5.2 from 3.2 million Tons post this capex, should add > 120 cr ( roughly ) to the topline
Expecting payments of >30 cr for damages caused by cyclone in 2021 form insurance company in this FY
Company recouping some Mkt share this FY vs previous 2 yrs
Disc : added a tracking position
Impressed by the high margin nature of business, liberal dividend payouts, company’s cash rich status and descent growth prospects
Shakti Pumps – solar shakti (power)! (16-08-2023)
Management has given figures on very conservative basis as all depends on implementation of KUSUM . Management had made aggresive projection in past which they were not able to achieve and hence its good that they are conservative.
Kusum has became like Sher aaya … Sher aaya … but I hope this time KUSUM should really fructify… and then all estiamations can be surpassed.
Tejas Networks – Product based IT business in a favored sector? (16-08-2023)
On a positive note – management has stressed on execution. Erstwhile leaders though stressing on delivery, used to fall short every other quarter, whether through their lack of vision or due to Acts of God, read as Covid, or SemiConductor shortage.
The luck factor on the side of the company, was that, it was not capital intensive – sometime ago they mentioned ~200 crs (per year?) was enough to meet operational expenses – so the receivables getting stuck was not a big negative.
About 2 years ago, recall how markets kept punishing the MCap due to BSNL dues not budging. This time around the bright spot is that, TCS is the customer who then collect from BSNL.
New Tata management would be keen to bring motions in order. And TCS is rich in cash. They should clear dues promptly. This is a national project where the Government is keen to show the technological prowess into next 25years of India’s growth. Plus, my belief is Tata’s got a fair trade for taking AirIndia out of Governments books.
In ~1.5yrs, if 7K crores get executed then each quarter revenue should be 1200 crores (7.5Kcr / 6Q ). Much higher than ~200crs per Q now.
Plus there’s ‘several thousand crores’ worth of maintenence beginning in 3Y and stretching to 9Y (3Y_fwd_9Y_bond). Plus 5G as per management.
Failed to understand why the newscasters at CNBC interview above didnt do a rough calculation – but kept asking, management.
Edit: perversely my thoughts are that, this is a better EMS play than a pure route. Hoping for another few baggins-of-wealth. A few of us I know, held and added through a lot of pain – so this kind of seems like a reward.
Hitesh portfolio (16-08-2023)
Hi Hitesh sir
Intersted to know your views on Manappuram
finance .
It has posted a stellar result this quarter and is in strong momentum and is going through a long consolidation and formed I feel a half cup and
handle .
Will it form a full cup and handle and will reach its all time high of 220 and then go above
Will highly appreciate your expert view
Thanks
Mahesh
