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Posts in category Value Pickr
Time technoplast (07-06-2024)
Everest Kanto Cylinders Ltd. – A long runway ahead! (07-06-2024)
If you come here just for fun and only to crib about the company while staying invested in competition, probably your opinion is biased.
No offence. Just want to highlight that you could have offered a comparative snapshot between the two companies instead of just informing the forum that you moved your capital to another and are happy about it.
Manappuram Finance (07-06-2024)
Muthoot is a much larger company almost double the AUM with more customer centric focus and more assets per branch so lesser compared to overall AUM % wise more aggressive marketing they are opening more gold branches 150 per year ,what works best for manappuramis microfinance as they have extended it to only some of the branches 20 % only right now i believe so execution is the key if not this they should grow gold loans
as the promoter buying i see it as positive i don’t have reasons why a promoter should invest fully back in the company
valuation is attractive though
invested though
Manappuram Finance (07-06-2024)
there wont be much difference as manappuram will be a holding company when the aasirvad grows may be it will be reflected in the manappuram stock but as of now this is a long term bet maybe more than 3-5 years
My portfolio updates and investment journey (07-06-2024)
@Krishna19 : Sorry for being rude. From your questions on this forum, I sense that you are not willing to put in a self-learning effort. I recommend not to misuse the generosity of folks such as @joinjp2003. Trust you will take it constructively.
P.S: I will delete this message soon.
Life Insurance Companies – Comparison (07-06-2024)
B & K securities initiates buy on SBI LIFE.
SBI Life Insurance Company - 4QFY24 Result Update - 26 Apr 24 (1).pdf (480.9 KB)
My portfolio updates and investment journey (07-06-2024)
Sir, what is mean of Equity capital?
what is effect of it on share?
If it is increase or decrease?
Tatva Chintan – A catalyst for growth (07-06-2024)
hi folks! haven’t seen you all discussing the stock quite much in recent times.
I came across this stock when it IPOed but I didn’t invest although liked its characteristics.
I recently bought the stock at around 990rs.
Why now? Let me introduce you’all to my thought process
I have an experience of around 3 years in the markets, and when I started in the markets at that time the hot stocks were pharma and chemicals, so invested a lot of money there and on net levels didn’t make any return.
Things I learnt from my first sectoral cycle :
1.Valutions matter
2.Brokerage reports are sales reports
3.Never invest at peak margins, peak earnings, peak valuations (even if its a structural business, look for temporary headwinds to invest so that you can get a good valuation multiple)
“Its the earnings that break or make the narrative. I like to be placed in a stage where the earnings start the narrative. and its the narative that gives you speculative returns alongside earnings growth” ~ me
Lets apply my learnings to Tatva Chintan while looking at some ratios:
- The business is trading at 3.25x Price to Book , Average ~ 7x
- RoCE less than 10% for 2 years now.
- OPM (17%) lower than average ~ (20%)
Now it clearly shows that the stock is going through an earnings downcycle and the stock is falling continuously but I believe enough pessimism has been built enough around it. I have made a tracking position.
How I think differently from the market at this point is:
- I think the revenue has bottomed out in FY24 (0.9x asset turns, 2.6x asset turns bull times on a much smaller asset base)
- I could be completely wrong with the first point so let’s check survivability - the business has no debt (due its recent equity dilution xD) and lil cash too so I think it can survive in one year of downturn.
Now lets look at optionalities :
- A large part of revenue can come from the other part of business (PASC - molecules commercializing) in next 1 year (biggest and only optionality for me) (management has guided for next 6 months but I have also taken a cushion of another 6 months in my assumption), one must note that in the previous bull run of the stock it was the SDAs (major part of business) which gave a splendid performance. it would be a blue-sky situation if both PASC and SDAs do well from here.
- Euro 7 norms to tentatively start from next 1.5 years.(good for SDA business division)
- China’s GDP showing signs of lil recovery. (GDP growth and Commercial Vehicle sales are correlated) (good for SDA business division)
Risks:
- The working capital cycle is very baddddddd. (which makes me not be a permanent owner of the business) (I just want to play out the cycle in this business)
- Change in end use of the application (I am unaware on this, neither the management has told me anything about it. sus)(still let’s hope for the positive)
- PASC molecules do not commercial (I will sell immediately)
I have used simple principles of a cyclical investing approach for this business because I know my circle of competence. I cannot understand the chemical business because of their complexity.
fingers crossed, I am optimistic about the stock performance
Buying the pessimism: Trying to catch the bottom (06-06-2024)
Would IT sector fall into this category? Most of the companies are signaling no to low growth and US investments in service industry has also gone down. However, with AI investments skyrocketing, future looks bright. What does folks think about it?