I took full exit at 92.
Would revert only if it is available discount to its value (nav / bv).
Uncertainties and opaquenes must lead to more discounting.
Regards
Karthik
Posts in category Value Pickr
PGINVIT impairment of investments in subsidiaries and book value (01-10-2024)
Edelweiss Financial Services (01-10-2024)
Edelweiss prepares to list its alternatives arm
Shakti Pumps – solar shakti (power)! (01-10-2024)
Isn’t this the whole point of a Bonus issue? Most retail investors feel they are getting something for “free” and also when the price reduces most investors who shy away thinking a 4500 share is an expensive bet come back at 900 considering it cheaper. As the market works on what “Most” of the investors think…bonus always works wonders to bring back the lost charm of a stock.
PGINVIT impairment of investments in subsidiaries and book value (01-10-2024)
@All @kkronline @amit.thakkar.007
I was thinking to average down my investment but sounds like everyone here are too cautious of future cashflow / DPU and book value / unit price
Disc. Invested and sitting on ~40% capital loss
Zomato – Should you order? (01-10-2024)
Any thesis on the reinvestment of cash generated over these years? Any assumptions on Districts vertical (think coldplay) and any other new stream getting generated over these 10 years.
Also I think 15x (~31% CAGR) is not extremely optimistic (average case in my opinion) over 10 years, What is the TAM here?
- For Q-comm – all offline stores like Kiranas, electronics etc., e-commerce, shopping marts etc.
- For food delivery – with increasing traffic, women/men workforce participation, etc. factors
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (01-10-2024)
DLF cmp 900. weekly line chart. After rally from 530 in Oct 2023 to 930 in March 2024, stock underwent a 6 month long tight consolidation in form of triangle/pennant and broke out last week. Potential target of 1200 if pattern plays out which also will be challenging its previous ATH of 1225 posted in 2008.
disc: invested as a technical bet with appropriate stop loss. (not a recommendation. anyone contemplating investment should do their own diligence and follow proper stop losses)
Time technoplast (01-10-2024)
In the below tracker, I have started tracking important company goals for Time Technoplast. These goals are referred to as ‘monitorables’ in the tracker.I will update this document regularly to reflect the current status of these goals.
Here’s a snapshot of what the tracker includes:
- Company Ticker: For identifying the company
- Monitorable Description: Description of the goal or metric being tracked
- Date of Announcement: When the monitorable was announced
- Deadline: Target date for achieving the monitorable
- Status: Current progress (e.g., Not Fulfilled, Pending)
I hope this information makes it easier to observe how well companies are progressing towards their stated goals.
Screenshot of the tracker below:
Full tracker attached below:
Tracking Company Monitorables-12.xlsx (158.5 KB)
Journey and Portfolio of a goal-based NEEV investor (01-10-2024)
Sept 2024 portfolio updates
- Cash levels have doubled from Aug24 levels (although it remains only in high single-digit %)
- Trimmed a few positions i.e. DIXON, TATA INVEST CORP and MOST 100 ETF (NASDAQ)
- Positions trimmed to achieve optimum portfolio allocation and manage risk. Also, market (NIFTY50) crossed 26k as I had assumed in my Dec 2023 updates, although slightly earlier than expected.
- Watching TIPS MUSIC position if I need to trim it given it’s 45-50% higher than expected allocation. Will decide post Q2 results.
- Overall portfolio churn is at 7.7% for FY25
| Stock name | Weight | Avg P/E | Current P/L % | Total P/L % | IRR % | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIPS MUSIC | 10.6% | 18.1 | 243% | 264% | 82% | |
| CASH | 8.6% | – | – | – | – | |
| MOST 100 ETF | 7.2% | 17.7 | 65% | 77% | 29% | Trimmed |
| BAJAJ FINANCE | 6.7% | 21.6 | 47% | 53% | 15% | |
| COAL INDIA | 6.7% | 4.5 | 74% | 82% | 79% | |
| BANK BEES ETF | 6.6% | 11.6 | 44% | 44% | 19% | |
| TITAN | 6.5% | 47.2 | 108% | 124% | 25% | |
| IRCTC | 5.8% | 27.2 | 130% | 175% | 48% | |
| TATA INVEST CORP | 5.4% | 25.2 | 270% | 338% | 125% | Trimmed |
| DIXON | 5.4% | 39.2 | 380% | 779% | 101% | Trimmed |
| VARUN BEV. | 4.5% | 48.1 | 69% | 71% | 51% | |
| IEX | 4.3% | 21.8 | 125% | 103% | 25% | |
| PIDILITE | 4.3% | 53.5 | 75% | 89% | 20% | |
| INDIAMART | 4.0% | 40.5 | 20% | 62% | 33% | |
| NARAYANA HEALTH | 3.7% | 23.6 | 34% | 34% | 29% | |
| AMARA RAJA | 3.1% | 15.3 | 110% | 112% | 99% | |
| TATA ELXSI | 3.0% | 34.4 | 77% | 172% | 50% | |
| WONDERLA * | 2.3% | 36.3 | -1% | 0% | -1% | |
| EFC LTD * | 1.4% | 34.3 | -12% | -12% | -47% |
- (asterisk) signifies <1 yr holding period
Here’s the return profile till September 2024:
| TRI till 30/09/24 | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | Since inception |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MY PORTFOLIO | 0.0% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 42.3% | 11.4% | 24.8% | 23.2% |
| NIFTY 50 | 2.4% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 31.5% | 13.7% | 17.6% | 15.5% |
| NIFTY 500 | 2.2% | 7.4% | 18.9% | 40.2% | 17.2% | 20.9% | 16.8% |
Note: 1/3/6M is in absolutes while the 1/3/5Y/SI is annualized. The inception date is 10th Nov 2016
Disclaimer: I am neither a financial nor a SEBI registered advisor. The content shared here is only for learning purposes. So please use your discretion to make any buy/sell decision and not use the above as a recommendation.
Kernex: TCAS led multi year growth story (01-10-2024)
Kernex FY24 AGM Highlights
- Will do 230cr sales in FY25 (can increase if some of new tenders close by December), FY26 will be atleast 3x FY25 revenue
- Till date 11600cr worth of new tenders are out (Last tenders 2 years back were 1500cr), out of which 25 tenders are for implementation (kms) and 3 tenders are for Loco
- Loco tenders bid close date is October 4th and is expected to be awarded by December 2024
- 60-70% tenders of the 28 tenders are expected to be awarded by December, some of the tenders have November bidding so may result may come in January
- 44000kms worth of tenders to come by 2029, another 10,000km tenders expected after current 10,000km tender
- Locos TCAS implementation to be completed in 12 months
- Kernex expecting to win 25-30% of total tenders value
- Earlier guidance of 900cr sales in FY25 will not be met because the new tenders coming out now were delayed by 1 year and also some of the customers wanted TCAS 4.0 and not TCAS 3.2, sure to meet guidance this time
- Working capital requirement will be around 150cr for new tenders, have tied up with banks