Hi @visuarchie Sir,
Please explain how to decide whether there is a vacancy or not and how to decide exit?
Posts in category Value Pickr
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
Piramal Pharma Limited (11-05-2024)
Strong results for the quarter.
Results -
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/3564c28a-e817-49ca-b6ce-4f3868f0fc76.pdf
Investor presentation
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
Update for entry on 13th May 2024
50DMA (14944) > 200DMA (13418); hence we can continue without any change.
Based on ranking:
- JAIBALAJI
- ANANDRATHI
- SCHNEIDER
- INOXWIND
- HINDCOPPER
- COCHINSHIP
- SWSOLAR
- HUDCO
- SIGNATURE
- EIHOTEL
- MOTILALOFS
- HBLPOWER
- SOBHA
- MEDANTA
- POWERINDIA
- KPIL
- TATAINVEST
- JWL
- EXIDEIND
- APARINDS
Based on A → Z for easy tracking:
- ANANDRATHI
- APARINDS*
- COCHINSHIP
- EIHOTEL
- EXIDEIND
- HBLPOWER
- HINDCOPPER
- HUDCO
- INOXWIND
- JAIBALAJI
- JWL*
- KPIL
- MEDANTA
- MOTILALOFS
- POWERINDIA
- SCHNEIDER
- SIGNATURE
- SOBHA
- SWSOLAR
- TATAINVEST*
Exit:
CHALET makes an exit.
CENTURYTEX and MRPL stay within the top 25 and hence remain.
Entry:
TATAINVEST makes an entry.
APARINDS and JWL cannot enter as there is no vacancy.
With a variation of 70% weightage for 6m performance, we see small changes in pf.
MRPL exits. ARE&M and CENTURYTEX remain within the top 25 and hence remain.
TATAINVEST enters. BLUESTARCO and NATIONALUM cannot enter as there is no vacancy.
IDFC First Bank Limited (11-05-2024)
Very well studied indeed!
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
Got it, 6 months date was 1 column earlier.
I still get confused with the 12 and 6-month date calculations.
Please explain if possible or post the consideration dates along with the stock list. So that I can verify every week.
HDFC Bank- we understand your world (11-05-2024)
The growth in stock prices of any bank will be driven by the following:
1- Credit growth in economy
2- Bank’s ability to maintain or grow market share
3- Valuation adjustment
So you can see stock price appreciation for a bank should have nothing to do with its size. ICICI bank, despite its large market cap, is still the best performing bank, on the basis of stock price return, compared to any small-mid size bank (not including NBFC), over any time period. Conversely, you can have the stock price of a small-midsize cap bank do nothing for a long time, if they continue to lose market share or trade at above-mean valuations.
Coming to HDFC bank, they have been growing their book size at 20-22%, on an average, which is well above India’s historical credit growth (12-14%). It’s because of their operational efficiencies and gain in market share.
India’s credit to GDP is among the lowest in the world and as per many experts we are at the start of a credit boom (see the chart below).
So without getting into too much detailed analysis, big picture looks very promising for banks like HDFC. Even if HDFC can maintain their market share (which they will and even grow further), they should be able to grow their book at 16-18% (even with a large base) which should translate into the similar CAGR return on stock prices in the long run.
Valuation-based upside is just bonus.
Market cap is just a number. 15-20 years ago, we had very few companies trading at 1 lakh market cap and it was considered to be extremely large. Now we have close to 100 companies with more than 1 lakh market cap. And who knows what will happen in next 15-20 years.
Low Volatility Stocks (11-05-2024)
It is also possible that we get some quality stocks, value stocks in our momentum search results, in a falling market, if the search criteria is not too restricted. When the market is buoyant, may be Nifty 500 or go by market cap, and when market is not conducive, stick to Nifty 100 or so.
Just an idea, I am yet to experience this, as we are still in a bull market.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
@Anand_Jain There are some small differences in the order. I will post my list later today. 19 of the stocks are the same. Number 20 for me is APARINDS (not NBCC). This could be because last week NBCC could not enter as there was no vacancy and this week it is at 21.
This week also some stocks have dropped below 20 but will not go out as they are still within 25.
Look back date for 1 year is 12/05/2023 and for 6 months it is 10/11/2023. These are the dates that I have used.
Microcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
Hi @visuarchie Sir,
Please find stocks for this week:-
KPIGREEN
PURVA
KESORAMIND
KIRLOSENG
NETWEB
IFCI
ELECTCAST
ARVIND
VOLTAMP
CHOICEIN
WOCKPHARMA
ANANTRAJ
TECHNOE
STAR
NEWGEN
SANGHVIMOV
TIMETECHNO
KIRLOSBROS
BASF
GANESHHOUC
ITDCEM
BALMLAWRIE
TVSHLTD
TIDEWATER
RTNPOWER
A->Z Sorted order
ANANTRAJ
ARVIND
BALMLAWRIE
BASF
CHOICEIN
ELECTCAST
GANESHHOUC
IFCI
ITDCEM
KESORAMIND
KIRLOSBROS
KIRLOSENG
KPIGREEN
NETWEB
NEWGEN
PURVA
RTNPOWER
SANGHVIMOV
STAR
TECHNOE
TIDEWATER
TIMETECHNO
TVSHLTD
VOLTAMP
WOCKPHARMA
Please verify.
Low Volatility Stocks (11-05-2024)
@akash_das Totally agree with you, that is why I want to have an additional investment methodology. I am doing momentum now with different underlying indices. Want to add low volatility as a complementary strategy.