Below are the charts for gold/ silver.
Gold 25 year chart
Silver 25 year chart
Both Gold/Silver follow similar upside /downside movements, the movements in gold are less volatile as compared to silver, but silver give big moves than gold.
Gold has already reached all time high, waiting to see a big upmove in silver also.
Hindustan Zinc is a key producer of silver
Seems to resume the upmove after testing support at Weekly 50EMA
Disc:Invested in both silver ETF and Hindustan Zinc.
Hi Anant,
While respecting your thought process.
There are a few things I would like to point out.
Doesn’t matter because the prices have gone up as crops were destroyed due to climate change in regions like Ghana and Ivory Coast, the same applies to anybody and everybody.
*
Why did the prices increase in the UK by 70-80% and why so less in India ? One simple and well-known reason is ‘Cocoa content’, Indians prefer sugar and milk solids-loaded chocolate usually made in vegetable fat rather than Cocoa butter.
Comparing Dairy milk to Amul is an apple to oranges comparison. 80% of Amul Chocolates range contains 45%+ Cocoa and are purely made in Cocoa butter on the other hand Cadbury’s 80% chocolates contain less than 25% cocoa content and many are made in palm oil/vegetable fats. So, the more the cocoa content, the more the price hike but what’s the good part about dark chocolates? Consumers of dark chocolates are growing much faster than that of milk-based chocolates headed by brands like Amul who source Cocoa for its highest selling single origin dark chocolate from Karnataka’s Karavali Region.
*Major Correction – Amul has not increased their prices by 30% they have been planning a hike between 10-20% and Cadbury’s has increased Dairy milk’s prices by over 12% in most countries.
Amul sources its Cocoa domestically and is currently selling the most value for money Dark chocolate do we think a Dairy like Amul and a Management like Reliance will give up on sales due inability to pass on price hikes? People who prefer eating Dark chocolates will continue doing that because Amul gives 125gms of dark chocolate for 100-120rs. And Cadburys gives 80gms of Bournville for the same price. Both are very reasonably priced when compared to brands like Lindt or ITC’s Fabelle which cost anywhere between 3x-10x.
Just came across a decent analysis by this Youtuber –
Note from AGM:
Outlook: The goal is to double the revenue from FY 24, in the next three years by FY 27. So We’re on track. As you have seen, the growth in Q1 has been pretty healthy at 21% and organically and inorganically combined to get to the goal of doubling our revenues entails about 26% CAGR and we’re confident that we should be able to achieve that over the next three years.
Margin expansion: what we have guided for in previous quarterly earnings is about 150 basis points to 200 basis points expansion. So we’ve been at about 20%. So, we should see that kind of expansion in our EBITA margins over the course of this fiscal year.
Microenvironment: global travel industry continues to hold steady in the face of the evolving situations in some pockets and, the SCIFT travel index that we follow continues to hold steady at 104 in June. With key geographies within Europe witnessing a strong summer season and Asia Pacific still witnessing some healthy tailwinds being one of the last geographies to open up. The hotel industry growth continues over 2023 levels buoyed by improved occupancy. Recent surveys conducted by leading global consultancy firms have highlighted that recreation and leisure travels continue to be at the top of the list for discretionary spend for consumers demanding a higher share of wallet and kind of reaffirming the outlook for the travel sector in terms of the next few years that there are some healthy tailwinds for growth within this space. So overall things are holding quite steady and within that, customers continue to drive investments into the industry. It opens new opportunities for RateGain to be able to further consolidate its position over there.
Other was on M&A.
Mohnish Pabrai of Pabrai Investment Funds speaks highly about the VIC (Value Investors Club – https://valueinvestorsclub.com/). You may want to check it out.
I had highlighted in Nov 2022 that the sale of the HFC could be a potential rerating event for the company. I had estimated a minimum valuation of Rs1,050 crore for the HFC based on that of peers and comparable M&A transactions. Seems like ICFL has been able to get a much higher valuation for the HFC than my estimate. The market may value ICFL’s residual business at a higher P/BV due to this transaction. Considering the presence of Brookfield as a promoter, the possibility of proceeds from the sale of the HFC being frittered away or siphoned off as that happened in some other companies is also low.
and gov will come and say module/steel prices have down we will cancel and issue new contract…this movie has played before… in AP in 2019 a new gov cancelled old PPAs for solar power citing that panel price have gone down… this is nothing new… gov is fickle… a collapse in BJP gov will reset many of these contracts… if i am a diesel pump owner and market price of this pump is less than gov subsidiesed price that is fixed price why woudl i buy it via gov program? you can alredy see this check the DCR soalr module kits price vas non DCR kits… DCR kits with gov subsidy cost more than non DCR kits… many farmers that get these gov subsidised pumps then sell them off in open market for cash once installed creating ample second hand supply for diesel pump owners to buy at throw away price …
I dont have much to add here…
1cc2857c-899b-4122-bb48-27e655b0536a.pdf (1.1 MB)
Views invited on the last evening move by Company.
Company has been able to sell the Housing Division for 1750 crores, this was around 20 percent of total business.
At current Market Cap of 4200 crore, company has been able to get a around 41 percent of market cap from a business which was only earning half as per current market cap.
I see a re rating from current levels and current BV ratio of 1.33 seems significant re rating in coming years.
Brookfields management is showing their potential and their concentration on used vehicle loan in this declining interest rate cycle seems to be a good move.
My views biased as I am invested significantly from lower levels
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The bank has a relatively longer history of trading below the book value. But this was largely post 2018, during periods in which the bank had poor RoE/RoA and increasing NPA. Right now the RoE is about 13.8% , NPA is on a downward trajectory , the new book is at the moment shown as high quality assets.Even then the bank is traded below its adjusted book.
What could be the reason it is trading so? I assume the market knows something that I don’t know or Mr market is depressed and it is underpriced. Isn’t it at a far better position than it was in 2018 when there was a flood in Kerala and when the actual returns to shareholders as well as anticipated returns to shareholders were coming down to single digits? What do you think you know that I don’t know?
